00:00The Democratic Party could flip control of the United States Senate in midterm elections this fall, but it won't be
00:06easy.
00:07The Republican Party controls a 53-47 majority in the U.S. Senate.
00:11That means Democrats need to win four seats this fall to take control.
00:16Why four? Because the GOP controls the vice president's tie-breaking vote.
00:21In North Carolina, a state that tends to prefer Republicans for president and lately Democrats for governor,
00:26the former Democratic governor, Roy Cupper, is leading in most polls versus Mark Watley,
00:33the former Republican National Committee chairman who is going to be the Republican nominee in that state.
00:38In Texas, Democrats have nominated James Tallarico, a state senator.
00:44There's still a question as to whether Tallarico can defeat State Attorney General Ken Paxton or incumbent Senator John Cornyn.
00:51No Democrat in Texas has won a statewide race since 1994.
00:55But polling shows, again, that the race is at least competitive.
01:00Iowa and Ohio are both red states that are former swing states,
01:04but have become red since President Trump entered the political scene in 2016.
01:10Conventional wisdom would suggest that ultimately Republicans will prevail in those two states.
01:16But every bit of data that I've been looking at, both public and private,
01:20shows that Democrats are at least contesting those races,
01:23and that means Republicans are going to have to expend resources to defend them.
01:28Name a blue state where Democrats have tried over and over again to defeat Susan Collins,
01:33a Republican in office nearly 30 years.
01:36They've tried before and they've failed before.
01:38But given the political environment and given President Trump's standing,
01:42Democrats are probably as optimistic as they have ever been
01:46that even with Graham Plattner, who has a history of controversial statements
01:49and has never been tested in a statewide race, they might finally get to Collins.
01:53Finally, Alaska.
01:54Here's a state that hasn't elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 2008
01:59and only did it once before, prior to that, in its entire history.
02:04And so that would suggest that ultimately the incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan
02:08will come out on top.
02:10But the Republicans I've talked to are exceedingly worried about Sullivan's standing.
02:14And there's a belief now that the Democratic former Congresswoman Mary Peltola
02:18is putting that seat in play for the Democrats.
02:21The Democrats still face major obstacles when it comes to flipping the Senate.
02:25Least of all, an open seat in Michigan that they're defending
02:28and they're in the midst of a very divisive primary.
02:32But the political atmosphere has clearly changed and moved in their direction,
02:37at least for now.
02:39As Mitch McConnell, the former Republican majority,
02:41told me back in 2018 during Trump's first midterm election,
02:45maps don't win elections.
02:47The atmosphere is not irrelevant.
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