00:00And after Iran warned it would block oil exports if U.S. and Israeli attacks continue,
00:06how serious is the risk that the Strait of Hormuz now becomes a major flashpoint in the conflict?
00:13As we talked about consumer prices in the U.S., we're seeing this closing of the strait choking global oil
00:21supply.
00:22It's very serious.
00:24So I think this particular pivot can take these things global
00:27and something which would not necessarily confine the current tension to the U.S.-Iranian binary.
00:32It will obviously affect prices at a global scale.
00:35So a couple of things to consider.
00:36First of all, Strait of Hormuz, as we know, that it's very, very unlikely that many of the oil shipments,
00:41which are due to countries all around the world, are going to pass through in recent times
00:45because of Iran having a chokehold on that.
00:47But on that front as well, I think the Iranian weakness also comes into play
00:50because you want to keep a hold on it, but the Iranians are a bit unclear about what a permanent
00:54chokehold would look like.
00:56So, again, it is less about Iran's own intent.
00:59It's more about kind of choking prices and coming in.
01:01And I think that's where I think the larger costs are to dawn in on both sides.
01:05For example, when you look at the GCC, and we do see shockwaves being heard as far as Southeast Asia
01:10tells you
01:11that the United States and Iran would naturally have to then heed into demands coming from various other sectors,
01:18be it their partners spanning continents, be it, for example, discussions happening in OPEC as well.
01:23And I think, you know, when you look at the conflict dynamic, it kind of intensifies
01:26because this would kind of test the patience of governments that are willing to kind of coordinate business
01:31and public interest within their own territory.
01:34So a sovereign interest is kind of playing into the larger dynamic here, which, you know, threatens to widen as
01:40it goes.
01:41And I think this particular situation is also untenable.
01:44It's unsustainable.
01:45When you look at choking the sort of thermos, that's one thing.
01:47But the implications coming from it are something which do not exactly benefit the U.S. and Iran
01:51and obviously will test the temperatures and patience of key major economies spanning around the world,
01:57something which kind of puts U.S. partnerships as well as Iranian interests also on the line.
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