00:07The war thousands of kilometers away between Iran, United States and Israel.
00:11But the first place to feel its impact is not on the battlefield, it is your own kitchen.
00:20A recent industry estimate warns that 40 to 50% of restaurants in major Indian cities
00:25could shut down temporarily if the current supply crisis continues.
00:30The reason, cooking gas shortages and rising prices triggered by the war.
00:35Viewers, let's understand how a conflict in the Middle East may soon hit India's kitchens,
00:40our fuel bins and eventually the entire economy.
00:43I am Abhay Mandre and you are watching One India's special news program, India Global.
00:57War in the Middle East has disrupted state of Hormuz, a narrow borderway between Iran and Oman.
01:03Now, why does this matter?
01:05Because 20% of the world's oil and gas passes through this tiny choke part.
01:10When fighting intensified, tanker traffic slowed and energy shipments were disrupted.
01:15That pushed global oil prices sharply higher.
01:18At one point, Brent crude touched nearly $120 per barrel before falling close to $90.
01:25After a statement from Donald Trump hinting that the conflict might de-escalate.
01:30On Iran, you called it an excursion, you said it would be over soon.
01:35Are you thinking this week it will be over?
01:37No, but soon.
01:37Are you talking about days?
01:38I think soon.
01:39Very soon.
01:40But even that temporary spike has already created ripple effects.
01:44In India, commercial LPG cylinders have already risen by Rs. 115.
01:49Domestic cylinders increased by Rs. 60.
01:52Supply to industries has been restricted.
01:55And the first sector filling the shock is, of course, restaurants.
01:59The hospitality industry depends on commercial LPG for nearly 90% of its cooking needs.
02:05Industry groups warn that restaurants in cities like Bangalore, Mumbai and Chennai
02:09have only 3 to 7 days of LPG stock.
02:13Telangana, Andhra, also there have been reports of such severe shortages.
02:19So I feel in the next 2-3 days, if nothing really works out, then it's going to be a
02:25dangerous situation.
02:26Thousands of eateries may shut lunch and dinner services.
02:30Some estimates say 40-50% could temporarily close.
02:35That's not just a food problem.
02:37That's an economic shock affecting jobs, small businesses and urban livelihoods.
02:43To understand the bigger picture, we need to talk about India's energy dependence.
02:47India imports 85-90% of the crude oil it consumes.
02:52That makes it the world's third largest oil importer.
02:56And here's the crucial detail.
02:58Nearly half of those imports pass through the state of Hormuz.
03:02Every day, roughly 2.5-2.7 million barrels of oil for India travels through this important route.
03:09If that route gets disrupted, India faces 3 immediate problems.
03:15First one is higher oil prices.
03:17Second one is supply uncertainty.
03:20And third, a bigger import bill.
03:22Economists estimate something serious.
03:24For India, if there is an increase in $1 in oil prices, that adds about $2 billion to our annual
03:33import bill.
03:35So, if oil rises by $10 or $20, which is common during wars, the economic impact becomes enormous.
03:44Oil is one problem.
03:46Cooking gas is another.
03:47India imposed more than 90% of its LPG.
03:50And the majority of that comes from the Middle East.
03:54Because of this conflict, around 95% commercial LPG supplies from the region are disrupted.
04:00State energy companies are prioritizing household supplies.
04:04And most importantly, industries and restaurants are getting less gas.
04:09Authorities have even increased the refill lock-in period to about 25 days.
04:15The country does have a buffer.
04:1720-25 days of crude oil stocks.
04:19About 25 days of refined fuels.
04:22But if disruptions continue beyond a few weeks, India may face serious energy pressure.
04:28Now, let's talk about politics.
04:30Rising LPG prices are not just an economic issue.
04:34They are politically explosive.
04:35Because fuel prices directly affect inflation and household budgets.
04:40And that puts pressure on the government led by Narendra Modi.
04:44The opposition is already preparing to launch mehengai attacks.
04:48Accusing the government of failing to control rising oil and gas prices.
05:07If cooking gas and petrol rise together, inflation could climb to 4.8% while economic growth could slow towards
05:166.2%.
05:17That combination creates economic and political pressures simultaneously.
05:22Indian authorities are trying to reassure citizens.
05:26The Petroleum Ministry says India has sufficient fuel stocks.
05:29Petrol and diesel prices won't immediately increase.
05:33But even after all the assurances, officials also say India is diversifying its impose by buying more oil from Russia,
05:42US, Canada.
05:43Diplomatic efforts are also underway to ensure safe shipping routes.
05:48On paper, the situation is under control.
05:51But reality is already showing tracks.
05:54Across several cities, restaurants are reporting LPG shortages.
05:58Some pumps have seen panic buying.
06:01And energy companies are facing profit pressures.
06:04Small businesses are the first casualties.
06:07Iran-US-Israel conflict may look like a distant geopolitical crisis.
06:11But for India, it is something much closer to home.
06:15It affects the gas in your kitchen, the fuel in your vehicle, the food on your plate, and most importantly,
06:22the stability of the Indian economy.
06:24If the war ends quickly, India's energy buffers may be enough.
06:27But if it drags on, the first warning sign will not come from oil markets.
06:33It will come from the upset Indian kitchens.
06:36That was our special report on rising oil crisis which India is facing right now.
06:41Keep watching One India News for more international updates.
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