00:00Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research writing, sentiment heading south usually increases the likelihood
00:04that we'll get a good buying opportunity. It's worked very well for me in the past,
00:08but it may not work now. Ed joins us now for more. Ed, welcome to the program. That's an
00:12interesting line from you. So let's build on it. Why is it different this time?
00:17Well, in the past, whenever the bull bear ratios took a dive, that was a great contrary indicator
00:25that it was time to buy. And usually when in the past, when the bull bear ratio took a dive,
00:31it was because there was some sort of crisis that there could be a response to by fiscal and
00:38monetary policy, trade policy. In other words, there were policies that the government could
00:46implement that would relieve all the concerns, relieve the crisis. And more often than not,
00:52what we've seen in the past, it was a credit crunch that spooked the financial markets. And
00:59sure enough, it led to a recession. And sure enough, it led to fiscal and monetary stimulus,
01:05which reversed the whole situation. So we saw that back in 2009. We made a bottom
01:11when the Fed came in. We saw that with the pandemic when the Fed came in. So we've got plenty
01:18of
01:18examples of the Fed put and the Treasury put and so on. The problem here is who's in charge? Who's
01:26in
01:26control? Who can respond to this latest Middle East crisis? And the answer is nobody. It's kind of
01:34ambiguous about how this thing gets resolved. I think the markets have taken a pretty optimistic view
01:40that this isn't going to last very long and that markets will adjust, that there will be oil and
01:48maybe it won't be a 20% cut in global oil as a result of the Persian Gulf War, but
01:56more like 10%.
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