00:00I think the end of that war is going to be very transactional as well.
00:03And I say this because the main peace mediator is the United States.
00:10So the effects on Ukraine, which I look at, there's at least one positive effect.
00:17And that is that Iran and Russia are not able to cooperate right now in terms of missiles or defense
00:24industry.
00:24Or be it, of course, Russia now has already two Shahid factories with Iranian technology.
00:32The second sort of positive and or negative effect is that the focus will be on Iran in terms of
00:41the public domain.
00:43And there we could be in a situation whereby this gives space for the negotiators to come up with something
00:49without the limelight.
00:52The third effect, which is more or less negative in my mind, is American war material.
01:00The stuff basically that Europe is buying from the U.S. and then giving to Ukraine to defend itself.
01:07I don't have the figures yet after this first week.
01:11But I mean, had Ukraine been given the air defenses that have already been used in the Gulf region, I
01:18mean, this war would have been over.
01:20And of course, the final effect is going to be negative, and that's the price of oil, which is basically
01:27going to feed the Russian war machinery.
01:28I agree.
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