00:00I want to bring you a headline that's on the terminal right now that Trump's Netanyahu problem
00:04is the latest key hurdle to an Iran deal. There were reports today, of course, about a very tense
00:10conversation between President Trump and Israel PM Netanyahu. And I wonder, you know,
00:17when you think about the war in Lebanon, how much of a hurdle that truly does
00:21pose to potentially securing a deal with Iran? I think the two theaters, if you will,
00:27Lebanon, Israel, and then on the Iran theater, where you have the United States and Israel
00:32having fought a pretty intense war with Iran, those have effectively merged at this point.
00:38I think Israel has always seen this, the war with Hezbollah in many ways as a war against Iran's
00:47crown jewel and its regional proxy network. And Iran also sees the two as very much linked. And it's
00:53insisting, basically, that any kind of ceasefire agreement and the memorandum of understanding
00:57that's under negotiation now must include a ceasefire on all fronts, as it calls it.
01:03And so I think the tense phone call that you saw was really about that. President Trump really
01:08wanting to get to a deal and very frustrated and apparently unhappy that Israel's actions in
01:15Lebanon might complicate that.
01:16So how do you see this, this progressing and potentially resolving here? You know,
01:21as you mentioned, the president of the United States, it seems like he would like to find
01:25an off ramp. But, you know, as we mentioned, there's a big hurdle on that off ramp. And
01:30I just, you know, wonder how you see those different threads coming together.
01:34Yeah, I think Lebanon is one potential hurdle. But I do think we're entering the final stretch of
01:40negotiations. And what you're seeing really now is a is a two step process that's being negotiated.
01:46The first step is to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which, of course, was not closed before this
01:51war began. And the second step, the second phase, if you will, will then get to the core issues,
01:57the nuclear program, as well as sanctions relief for Iran. And what both sides are doing right now
02:03is trying to set up for that second phase. They're trying to get as much as they can in this
02:07first
02:08phase to hold on to as much leverage as they can for that second phase so that they get the
02:13best
02:13possible deal in that second phase. Who's who's making the decisions right now for Iran?
02:20I think it seems that Secretary Rubio seemed to say today that the supreme leader, the new supreme
02:26leader, the son of the former supreme leader, is very much still involved in the discussions.
02:31But I think what you've seen through the course of this war and through the assassinations that
02:37occurred of a large part of Iran's leadership is Iran's decision making has moved much more in a
02:43hard line and extreme direction. So the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is always the
02:48most powerful force in Iran, has consolidated its position even more so today. And you're seeing some
02:53tensions in the in the leadership structure in Iran around that. Some are not happy with that. But
03:00largely that is what has occurred is that the war has strengthened the hardliners.
03:03You were instrumental in helping to structure Obama's nuclear deal with Iran back in the day,
03:10the JCPOA, which the Trump administration ripped up. You famously, I don't know you specifically,
03:17but the Obama administration famously did not necessarily include Israel in those negotiations.
03:22Why not? I think those discussions, we had actually a lot of discussion with Israel,
03:27particularly with the security establishment in Israel in the lead up to that discussion. We also
03:35had a process with the P5 plus one. But as the Trump administration is discovering now, I think,
03:42regarding some of the ways that you want to conduct negotiations, you want to have a degree of
03:49confidentiality to the discussions. But I would say that more broadly, it was well understood.
03:53Yeah. President Obama made no secret. He, in fact, part of his platform running for office was
03:59to negotiate an agreement on this basis. So it didn't come as a surprise to anybody. But the content
04:04of that discussion, yes, was not disclosed. Well, I raise that up, not to throw it in your face. But
04:09when you look at what's happening now, this idea that the U.S. and Israel don't necessarily seem to be
04:15on the same page with regards to how to bring this to a conclusion, at least based on what we
04:19know
04:19publicly. And I would think, given Israel's proximity to Iran, they would want to have a
04:25little bit more of a say as to what this deal ends up looking like. Yeah, I think so. They
04:30are
04:31in many ways, I think, unhappy that this deal could end up easing pressure on Iran at a moment when
04:40they feel that Iran is in a very weak position. I think that the U.S. administration,
04:47Trump administration, perhaps sees it a little bit differently and understands the consequences for
04:53the global economy and understands that we have to really kind of go back to the drawing board here
05:00to get our deterrence back against Iran and to be able to fight the next round. This is a multi
05:05-round
05:06fight. And I'm sad to say that I think Iran has prevailed in this round. And so we're going to
05:11have
05:11to go back to the drawing board to see how we can work more closely with allies, not just in
05:17the
05:17region, but our European allies, with others who we could have used in this, to also use the other
05:23sources of our strength and our leverage to try to move things in a better direction.
05:28And before we let you go, we don't have much time left, but I would love to get your perspective
05:32on something that we heard from Secretary of State Marco Rubio today, testifying in a hearing,
05:37saying that it can take upward of six days to get a response from Iran. We also heard from the
05:42president today talking about how they're in continuous talks. But you mentioned that you
05:47think we are maybe in the final stages of a negotiation, but you think about that timeline.
05:53I mean, what is realistic here when we're talking about these types of lags?
05:56Yeah, I think that you're seeing a couple of things. One is that people are hiding in Iran.
06:02As the secretary said, they're communicating by courier pigeon. Who knows? I mean,
06:06it's probably couriers of some sort that are going back and forth. So that's part of it. But
06:12I suspect the other part is that Iran is in no hurry. They feel that they're in a strong position
06:17right now through the stranglehold they have on the global economy with the control of the Strait
06:22of Hormuz. And they're determined to hang on to that until their bottom lines and their core interests
06:28are met here. And so I suspect they're dragging things on as well to try to show that, hey,
06:34we can we can outlast this and time is on our side.
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