00:00My bet is that this regime will survive.
00:02This is a very tough regime that still has at least 20% of the population on side
00:09and is willing to kill to remain in power.
00:12And we saw this in the response to the demonstrations that took place in January.
00:16And in particular, I think on January 8th and 9th or 9th and 10th,
00:20the regime was willing to kill tens of thousands of its own citizens.
00:24So this is not a regime that's going to easily disappear.
00:28But if that first scenario of yours, the survival of the regime
00:32and the possible strengthening is the most likely in your view,
00:34we will be asking in time, what was this war for?
00:38Yeah, I don't think the Americans, by the way, have thought through,
00:41that is the Trump administration have thought through the scenarios for after this war at all.
00:48I think they just went into this thinking they could, you know,
00:52it would be a very quick and easy decapitation of the leader
00:57and that somehow the regime would immediately come to a Venezuela-like accommodation with the Americans.
01:04But even President Trump said that the success of that initial attack
01:08that killed Ayatollah Khamenei was so successful that, you know,
01:11they knocked out, you know, several of the potential leaders
01:15who they were hoping to take over the regime and then make this accommodation.
01:20So this is not a war that has been thought through at all.
Comments