00:00Top U.S. officials, including the Defense Secretary, have said that sending U.S. troops to Iran could not be
00:05ruled out.
00:06But given public opinion in the United States, such a move would come with political consequences for Donald Trump and
00:12the Republicans,
00:13especially with mid-term elections approaching in November of this year.
00:17However, there are reports that the White House is looking to enlist and even arm separatist groups in the region
00:22to accomplish having boots on the ground.
00:26Monty Francis has the details.
00:32Airstrikes alone rarely topple a regime.
00:35If that is indeed the goal of this joint U.S.-Israeli campaign, missiles may not be enough.
00:40In a recent interview with the New York Post, Donald Trump said he would send in U.S. troops if
00:45necessary.
00:46But with polls showing just 12 percent of the American public in favor of such a move, it would come
00:52with a deep political cost.
00:54On Wednesday, the nation's top general tried to distance the military from the political fray.
01:00Well, I'm not going to comment on U.S. boots on the ground.
01:03I think that's a question for policymakers.
01:05And I don't make policy.
01:06I execute policy.
01:08If not U.S. troops on the ground, there are reports that Donald Trump has called leaders of Iranian Kurdish
01:13factions in northern Iraq to see if they are willing to take up arms against the regime.
01:18Under such a scenario, Washington could provide air support if the Iraqi Kurds cross the border and provide intelligence support
01:26to Kurdish groups inside Iran.
01:29But experts say it's far from a sure bet, given that the Kurds have a long memory of American betrayal.
01:35In 50 years, the U.S. has used the Kurds, the Iraqi Kurds, the Syrian Kurds, on multiple occasions.
01:44And when they no longer need them, they've betrayed them.
01:48And I know the Iraqi Kurdish leaders are very much aware of this.
01:52And it's something the Iranian Kurds might want to consider.
01:55In addition, experts say the Iranian Kurds don't have the same military resources or training as the Iraqi Kurds.
02:02Another group posing a potential threat to the regime are the Balak militant groups, some of whom have reportedly crossed
02:09into Iran from Pakistan.
02:11But experts have warned that backing such armed groups could open up a hornet's nest and increase the chances of
02:17a messy civil war if the regime collapses.
02:22Ante Francis, with that roundup, let's bring in Daniel Schneiderman, Director of Global Policy Programs at Penn, Washington, at the
02:31University of Pennsylvania.
02:33Daniel, thank you very much for being with us.
02:36Boots on the ground is what we'll be discussing.
02:38The question, I suppose, is whose boots and who pays?
02:42Yeah, look, thanks for having me.
02:44I really appreciate the opportunity to speak to your viewers.
02:47I am a deep skeptic that U.S. boots on the ground would achieve the objectives that the administration has
02:55set out, which, by the way, are changing every other day.
02:58I'm also a deep skeptic that the political cost would be something that this administration wants to overcome and take
03:04on.
03:04And I think, look, there is a challenge here in that the president set the precedent that this operation was
03:10about regime change from the very beginning.
03:12And so now you have seen how they have tried to walk that back over time.
03:16I actually think it's much more possible that the administration is looking to empower other forces to do the kind
03:22of groundwork that would be required.
03:25Those forces, Kurds notably, the Baloch group we were talking about as well.
03:31Is there a danger that in bringing together disparate groups for one particular aim at one particular moment is kind
03:39of like opening a Pandora's box situation in an already very volatile region?
03:45I think that's the perfect way to describe it.
03:47And frankly, the United States has had real challenges, even with groups that are much more ideologically aligned, like the
03:53opposition groups that tried to coordinate in Syria.
03:55And that was a deeply challenging and difficult process for the United States to try to execute, even under more
04:01ideal circumstances where they're operating across the border from Turkey, which is much more permissive than any kind of access
04:07they'll have inside of Iran.
04:09So leave the operational part of it aside. There is a whole legacy around empowering Kurdish separatist forces, which is
04:16very meaningful.
04:17And it is entirely possible that Kurdish groups in Turkey, in Iraq and in Syria will read the U.S.
04:23empowering Iranian Kurds as another opportunity to seek either greater independence or some form of federalism or other independence otherwise.
04:30And that has the possibility of kicking off conflict in other places around the region and further destabilizing things, as
04:38you rightly identified at the top of the program.
04:40I just had a very cynical thought as you were explaining this to me, Daniel.
04:43Is there some way that transactionally Donald Trump sees a way of benefiting here?
04:50Clearly, there is oil at stake in various places.
04:53Could that be somewhere in his thinking?
04:56You know, look, I think it's entirely possible.
04:59I think that Iran, as a specter and exporter of terrorism and regional instability, is probably the top list.
05:06But we've seen in other contexts where the Trump administration has made very clear how important these resource considerations and
05:13questions are.
05:13It was a top of mind for them in Venezuela.
05:16So it's entirely possible that this is a part of the calculus in this discussion.
05:20I will say what they're getting in the immediate term is major negative impacts on global energy markets, because even
05:27if the Iranians haven't functionally shut the Strait of Hormuz, no ships are passing through.
05:31So that means you're cutting off both natural gas and oil exports.
05:34And that has real meaning, geo-strategic implications.
05:38Indeed.
05:39And one other issue in the Strait of Hormuz, of course, is food supplies for the Gulf states.
05:44Lots of food's coming through Obisi, and of course, no food shortages there yet, but it's a strong possibility on
05:50the horizon that that could happen.
05:52Going back to the situation regarding what happens next in Orlando, how can Donald Trump carry this to his electorate
06:02and actually sort of look them in the eye and say, you know, I mean what I say and I
06:06do what I mean and I'm a man of my word,
06:09having campaigned and not getting the U.S. involved in foreign forever wars?
06:14Yeah, I mean, this is why I think it's so unlikely that ground forces will ultimately ever be committed to
06:19Iran, because there is a degree of ability to deny that the United States is involved in a longstanding war
06:26during an air campaign, right?
06:28There's an ability to say this is very different from Iraq.
06:30You've seen the Secretary of War point that out publicly that troops are not going to be committed, even as
06:35the president doesn't rule them out.
06:36I think he's politically quite astute and aware of the political implications of committing ground forces.
06:42And I think that will be something that he avoids doing at all costs.
06:46I'd be interested to get your take in how you feel this has been handled as regards people who would
06:53once upon a time have been regarded as allies.
06:55And I think now perhaps President Trump, without being disrespectful, perhaps regards people like Starmer, Macron, et cetera, as inconveniences.
07:04How would you how do you feel about the way it's all been handled in that sense?
07:07You know, the the attacks taking place, nobody being briefed, expecting people just to fall into line and follow.
07:13How do you feel about Trump's tactics there?
07:16Yeah, look, I think that the Europeans have their own gripes with the Iranian government.
07:21And so no one is shedding a tear in that sense about the death of the Ayatollah.
07:26I mean, there are major geopolitical and geostrategic implications for what the United States and the Israelis have done.
07:31But I think the Europeans are in some form supportive of the goal of making a better change in government
07:37in Iran.
07:38Of course, the way in which the United States and the Israelis have gone about executing it brings a whole
07:42host of difficult questions with it.
07:44But I'm not so surprised that we haven't seen more sort of righteous indignance from European partners, also because they
07:52are fighting difficult battles with the Trump administration on questions around the future of U.S. support to Ukraine, for
07:58instance.
07:58Right. So they are picking and choosing where they push buttons with the Trump administration right now, I think.
08:03You mentioned Ukraine. I have to ask you, Vladimir Zelensky is saying that there's been a request from the United
08:08States for help in combating Shahid drones.
08:13It's interesting because a year ago, Donald Trump was telling Zelensky he didn't have the cards.
08:18Have the cards changed hands now in some way?
08:22Well, look, let's take it in two parts.
08:24First, substantively, the Ukrainians absolutely have something to add here.
08:28They have been dealing with countering this technology on the battlefield since February of 2022 in a way that's very
08:35tangible and real.
08:36And so they have real battlefield expertise and value to bring.
08:39And I think it does represent a card for them to play in the context of the broader conversation on
08:44Ukraine.
08:44Right. And so I think it will remains to be seen how that process evolves alongside this.
08:50But I do think it is important and significant and politically meaningful that the president has asked for Ukrainian assistance
08:55in this regard.
08:56Indeed. So that perhaps is one card to be played by Volodymyr Zelensky in a very judicious way.
09:04As we're speaking, information is coming in to me via the link-ups here.
09:09Two drone attacks targeting Iranian opposition campaign Iraqi Kurdistan.
09:13Is this what we're going to see more and more of?
09:16These kind of cross-border skirmishes happening like that?
09:19And essentially feeding that fire in the kind of regional groups.
09:26Yes, I think absolutely.
09:28And this is part of the reason why experts like me are afraid of what's to come,
09:32because I fear now that the two sides are locked in a cycle of strike and counter that will be
09:38very hard to get out of.
09:40And I think the Iranians, because, again, of the way the campaign was framed by the president from the beginning
09:44as being about regime change,
09:46they are not incentivized to seek off-ramps right now.
09:49They are incentivized to do what they can to make clear they're still a force to be reckoned with.
09:53And winning this war for them is survival.
09:56And so for them making clear that they're still a threat,
09:58despite what the Israelis in the United States have been able to accomplish militarily, tactically, which is quite significant.
10:03I don't want to understate the way in which the United States has executed a combined arms operation with the
10:09Israelis.
10:10It's quite impressive.
10:10But I do think we will see more of this kind of thing where the Iranians will seek to punish
10:14those they see as aligned with the United States in the region
10:17as a way of demonstrating their continued ability to affect regional affairs.
10:21Indeed.
10:21It's one thing to be, how can I put it, impressed by how this has been carried out mechanically.
10:27But as you're saying, Daniel, it's what happens next, where it leads us on what happens to a region which
10:34is already volatile,
10:35already has many questions that are unanswered, already has seen lots of unrest.
10:39What do you see happening next?
10:41What is your sense of where this goes between now, a year, five years?
10:46Yeah, I think, look, this is an unprecedented moment in global geopolitics, at least as far as it goes between
10:51the United States, Israel and Iran.
10:53And so we're sort of throwing the old playbook out the window.
10:56So if you put a gun to my head and ask me to make a difficult choice, I would say
11:00this war ends with functionally a government in charge in Iran
11:05that even if it has a new supreme leader on its face that's run by the IRGC, they are endemic
11:09in everyday life.
11:11And as I said, I think the political costs are too high for the United States to be willing to
11:15commit ground troops to try to change the government.
11:17So I think for the next one to two years, whenever this phase of this conflict ends, you will see
11:22a much more hardline government in place in Iran.
11:24And that's not good for regional interests.
11:26Daniel Schneiderman, Director of Global Policy Programs at Penn Washington at the University of Pennsylvania.
11:31Thank you, sir, very much for sharing your analysis with us.
11:34And thank you for your time.
11:35Greatly appreciate it, Daniel.
11:36Thank you very much indeed.
11:37Thank you very much.
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