00:00Iran is tonight denying reports that armed Kurdish militants are crossing into the country from Iraq.
00:06It follows reports that Iranian Kurdish militia have been consulting with the U.S. in recent days
00:11about whether and how to attack Iranian security forces.
00:15A coalition of groups based on the Iran-Iraq border in the semi-autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan
00:22has been training to mount such an attack in hopes of weakening the regime, as James Vazina reports.
00:30It could lead to yet another escalation in the war.
00:35Kurds are believed to have thousands of trained fighters, many of whom are in neighbouring Iraq.
00:40And several sources have said that their forces are getting ready for a military operation in Iran.
00:50We have prepared all war scenarios.
00:52And regarding the current situation in Iran, we are ready to move in and play a leading role.
00:59Phone calls between Trump and the chairman of the Democratic Party have taken place.
01:03These are not just rumours.
01:08The White House has denied reports that Donald Trump spoke about arming Kurdish forces.
01:13He did speak to Kurdish leaders with respect to our base that we have in northern Iraq.
01:19But as for any report suggesting that the president has agreed to any such plan is completely false and should
01:27not be written.
01:28The Kurds' community is spread across Iraq, Iran, Syria and Turkey.
01:33They have long sought an autonomous Kurdistan state.
01:36But an uprising could further jeopardise hopes of an end to the war soon.
01:43The Iraqi Kurdish region has suffered several drone and missile attacks by Iran in recent days.
01:50Some of which have targeted US military bases as well as opposition groups' headquarters.
01:57Well, for more, we're joined now by former diplomat Peter Galbraith, who previously acted as an advisor to the Kurdistan
02:03regional government in northern Iraq.
02:06Thanks so much, Peter, for being with us on the programme.
02:09Iran tonight, as we speak, denying reports that armed Kurdish militants are actually crossing into the country from Iraq.
02:17Whether or not that's happening right now, as we saw there in that report, there has been, you know, a
02:24lot of talk about perhaps this is something that the Kurdish militia are planning.
02:28If that's the case, what's their main objective here?
02:31And would it be likely to be successful in your view?
02:37Well, their objective would be to take control of the Kurdish areas along the Iraqi border.
02:47And no, these Iranian Kurdish militia, or Peshmerga as they call them, do not have the capability to take control.
02:59What could happen is what happened in Iraq in 1991, which is that after with the regime under the government
03:09in Tehran under severe pressure, then there could be an uprising.
03:13And at that point, then, these Kurdish political parties and their Peshmerga could enter and take control of the situation.
03:21In 1991, in Iraqi Kurdistan, after Saddam was defeated in the Gulf War, there was an uprising.
03:28And at that point, then, the Kurdish leaders and their militaries came in.
03:33The Iranian Kurds, though, don't have the same military capability that the Iraqi Kurds had then, and certainly not what
03:41they have now.
03:41Would any such operation then require significant, we would imagine, U.S. military and intelligence support?
03:49And do you think the U.S. has been providing that, perhaps in the form of the CIA?
03:55Well, you know, I don't know what the CIA is doing, but, you know, the notion of arming these groups
04:02seems kind of pointless because they're already armed and the whole area is awash with arms.
04:09So I don't know what additional weaponry might be provided, I suppose, some high-tech communication systems and that sort
04:18of thing.
04:19And, you know, these Kurdish parties have probably more intelligence than the CIA has.
04:26You know, they have family members and they have supporters in all of these Kurdish cities and towns.
04:34But what they need to bear in mind is the history of America's involvement with the Kurds.
04:41In 50 years, the U.S. has used the Kurds, the Iraqi Kurds, the Syrian Kurds, on multiple occasions.
04:51And when they no longer need them, they've betrayed them.
04:54And I know the Iraqi Kurdish leaders are very much aware of this, and it's something the Iranian Kurds might
05:00want to consider.
05:01Yeah, because I was going to ask you, in light of that, and we refer particularly to the situation during
05:07the war in Iraq,
05:09have shifting allegiances then and ideologies, have they strained ties with Washington?
05:16Well, it isn't shifting allegiances.
05:20It is simply that the United States has, you know, used the Kurds as allies and then not stood by
05:30them.
05:30And Donald Trump has been a serial betrayer of the Kurds.
05:34In 2017, he actually allowed Qasem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi Mohandas to use American Abrams tanks to attack the Kurds
05:44in the city of Kirkuk after the independence referendum and take it.
05:49In 2019, he had a conversation with Erdogan just after the Kurds had defeated, Syrian Kurds had defeated the Islamic
05:58State.
05:58And he gave the green light to Erdogan to attack the Kurds, which he did.
06:02And this year in Syria, he facilitated the Syrian government, headed by a person who a year ago had a
06:10$10 million bounty on his head for being a terrorist, to attack the Kurds.
06:14So the notion that the Iranian Kurds could trust anything that the Americans said, and particularly Donald Trump, I think
06:25that would be pretty reckless.
06:26And certainly the Iraqi Kurds, who have an even longer history of this kind of behavior from the Americans, going
06:33back to Henry Kissinger in 1975, I'm sure their counsel would be for caution.
06:40And Peter, you mentioned the potential armed uprising earlier.
06:43What kind of consequences would that have if this were to be what ultimately happens here?
06:49What would the consequences be for Iran's overall stability, given the current situation?
06:57I referred to a popular uprising rather than an armed uprising, although presumably there'd be plenty of armed people who
07:08would be part of it.
07:09But I don't think it would be, and this is another flaw with any strategy that involves supporting the Iranian
07:18Kurds.
07:18I don't think it would be exceptionally destabilizing because the Kurdish areas are far from Tehran.
07:28So it isn't going to affect who's going to control Tehran.
07:34And the likely long-term outcome is either the current government in Tehran consolidates and then uses military force to
07:43put down the Kurdish areas, as both the Shah did and the Islamic State, with great brutality and many killed.
07:53Or there's a change of regime, and the new Iranian government comes in and puts down the Kurdish rebellion.
08:02The one hope I think the Kurds would have would be a common political agenda with a new government in
08:10Tehran, which would meet some of their demands, which are for democracy in Iran and for autonomy or federalism for
08:18the Kurdish region.
08:19An awful lot of moving parts, as you suggested, Peter.
08:23Is it possible to talk about how such an operation by Kurdish militia, how would it be viewed then or
08:29received by other countries in the region?
08:34Well, of course, Iran has warned against it, and it has threatened the leaders of Iraqi Kurdistan if they if
08:44they if they participate or permit it.
08:47And I'm sure the Iraqi Kurds will not participate in it.
08:52And they don't they aren't really in a position to prevent it because they, you know, first, they need American
09:00support because they're in a tenuous situation.
09:04And also, they don't control the border with Iran.
09:07There are large segments of it's very mountainous.
09:10I've been up all along it that basically the Kurdistan government doesn't control.
09:18Turkey has very explicitly warned against this, you know, they're concerned that one of the groups, the Pajak, is linked
09:29to the PKK.
09:31So they're very much against it.
09:32And while they actually have very good relations with the Kurdistan region in Iraq, much better than they do with
09:38Baghdad, they're not eager to see another Kurdish region in the Iranian territory.
09:44And a little bit more widely speaking, Peter, where do you think all of this is likely to go?
09:50We're hearing this evening that Washington now suggesting that this conflict could last at least eight weeks.
09:56Just a day ago, Donald Trump was talking about this, you know, continuing for four or five weeks.
10:01Where are things heading, do you think?
10:05Well, I think the very first thing that anybody needs to understand about war is that it almost never turns
10:14out the way its architects intend.
10:17You know, think back to George W. Bush landing on the USS Lincoln on May 1st, 2003, after the invasion
10:29of Iraq with that big banner mission accomplished.
10:31And what is it? Almost 23 years later, the United States is still militarily involved in Iraq.
10:40So, you know, this war, and Iran, of course, is a country three or four times the size of Iraq,
10:47both by territory and by population.
10:52You know, this is not going to be over in four weeks.
10:55It's not going to be over in eight weeks.
10:58This is going to continue.
11:00It's going to have devastating consequences for the global economy, for the American economy.
11:07You know, it's not that, I mean, the U.S. can take out the Iranian Navy, and I suppose mostly
11:13has.
11:14But no, you know, the insurance rates on oil tankers have gone through the roof.
11:18Nobody's going to be sending oil tankers into through the Strait of Hormuz when they can be taken out by
11:24a drone that costs a few thousand dollars.
11:30Qatar has already closed down its oil, its natural gas facilities, and that's the largest or second largest producer of
11:37LNG because, again, a drone that costs a few thousand dollars can blow the whole thing up.
11:43Natural gas is a very flammable thing, so you're going to have that impact.
11:49You're going to have the impact of the great damage to the economies of the Gulf countries.
11:55It's going to be, you know, there would be inflationary in the United States and around the world.
12:00This is going to last a very long time, and it's certainly not going to end the way its architects
12:07intended.
12:08Ultimately, there could be regime change in Iran because the Iranian people clearly do not like the government they have,
12:18and Iran is not such a repressive state that they, you know, it's not North Korea.
12:24People speak freely there, and you have these demonstrations.
12:32I'm very sorry for cutting across you, but we will have to leave it there for now.
12:36We do really appreciate your time, though.
12:37That is former diplomat Peter Galbraith previously acted as an advisor to the Kurdistan regional government.
12:43Thanks so much.
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