00:00China sets the most modest growth target in more than three decades, not since 1991 when we saw
00:06big disinvestment in heavy industry in places like northeastern China have we seen a growth
00:11target for a full year this low. And also they're setting a range, not like last year where it was
00:17around 5%, which the Chinese economy did hit that. This time it's going to be a range between
00:23four and a half percent to five percent. That gives more wiggle room, more flexibility. If
00:28the stresses facing the economy externally and internally as they rebalance and transition to
00:34more of a consumption led growth over the next five years proves to be more challenging, they can
00:40hit four and a half or go as high as five percent. Xi Jinping has been reluctant to roll out
00:46sweeping
00:46easing as it has, as the Chinese have done in past slowdowns. And this basically setting this range of
00:53four and a half to five percent lessens the pressure to deploy that aggressive stimulus.
00:58Also, the budget deficit as a ratio to GDP is going to be kept the same. It's a record high
01:04at four
01:04percent. But again, they did not increase it. Another signal that there could be some more
01:09belt tightening. That is something these officials last year used quite a lot. Defense spending,
01:15they're also going to be sort of lowering the expectations there at seven percent, which is the
01:21lowest increase since 2022. As for that five-year plan, they're saying that they're going to hit a
01:27reasonable range of GDP growth through 2030.
Comments