00:00I think the reaction that we've seen so far is not unexpected.
00:04There's been a flight to safe haven assets like the U.S. dollar and gold.
00:08At the same time, because of this worry of inflation, we've seen Treasury bonds kind of trade down.
00:14There's not a lot of activity moving into the Gulf at the moment,
00:17but rates have moved up quite a bit, as you would expect insurance rates have.
00:22People think about the potential of increased oil prices on your P&L.
00:26People might travel less.
00:27You take oil, not for a spike, but sustain it there, at $120 a barrel for oil, $120 for Brent,
00:36you're at zero growth.
00:38That's the trigger for a recession, $120 a barrel.
00:42That's what I believe, and I believe that's what the markets believe, although no one said it yet.
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