00:00Tyler, what could this possibly mean for the current standoff between the U.S. and Iran?
00:05Well, Danny, we have to keep in mind that Iran's president has been one of those more moderate,
00:10relatively, voices in the government that has been advocating for diplomacy to end the conflict.
00:16Though, as you're outlining there, we do know that there are different factions within the
00:22Iranian government that have made it more difficult in order to reach some sort of breakthrough. So
00:27maybe this is a bid to try to renew the focus on diplomacy ahead of what is anticipated to be
00:32some more economic pressure measures instituted by the U.S. We are expecting on Monday for the U.S.
00:39Treasury Secretary Scott Besant to unveil what that is going to look like in more detail. The
00:45administration has already previewed that it is going to go after those countries that still keep
00:51up any sort of financial ties with Iran. Of course, raising questions on whether or not the U.S. will
00:56particularly target China, considering that Beijing does remain the top importer of Iranian
01:02crude to the tune of importing about 90 percent of Iranian petroleum exports. I will point out,
01:08though, Danny, we did get this new data earlier today from the research firm Kepler, which shows
01:13that the readily available Iranian oil to Chinese customers is rapidly declining, showing the strength
01:20of the U.S. naval blockade. So any further action by the U.S. targeting China could really risk upsetting
01:27that U.S.-China trade truce at the moment. So we'll have to see where it goes from here. But maybe
01:32some of
01:33these comments from Iran's president is giving us a little more glimpse into some of the diplomacy that
01:37could be happening behind the scenes. Just to stay on what you mentioned, Tyler, that we're going to hear
01:44from Treasury Secretary Scott Besant on Monday. He did also argue that markets, specifically oil
01:49markets, are misunderstanding what the administration is doing. Never a good sign when you have to argue
01:54against markets. But Tyler, what could we get unveiled from the Treasury Secretary next week?
02:01So there's a few different avenues that we're looking at here. We do know that the U.S. is going
02:05to try
02:06to target these other countries that still keep up these financial ties. That doesn't necessarily just
02:11mean China. We know that Turkey is the second largest importer of Iranian goods. India is also
02:16a huge trading partner. And it feels like the region has been bracing for this action. The UAE earlier
02:21this week decided to cut off all financial ties with Iran, which was pretty remarkable since the UAE was
02:27Iran's top trading partner last year. Though, of course, we know there are different factors in that
02:32particular example, since the UAE has been a main focus of Iran's retaliation, even recently as this
02:40week, saying that they had to strike down some alleged missile attacks. Our own analysts at
02:45Bloomberg Economics say that this could take form in different avenues, different shapes. This could
02:51be so-called secondary tariffs. The president has previously threatened this of up to 25 percent.
02:56We could see some more targeted sanctions, particularly when it comes to those Chinese refiners.
03:02We also could see the U.S. move to seize frozen Iranian assets that are under U.S. jurisdiction,
03:09though that may be a little easier said than done just because a third-party country would likely
03:14have to get involved. So that would take a much more coordinated effort with the U.S. and some of
03:20our allies. So at this point, we're really awaiting those details. But the administration has made clear
03:26they're not going to fully restart military operations, but they are fully ready to take this escalatory route.
03:32Instead.
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