00:00Does the 10% increase in Brent that we've seen since Friday, does that actually reflect
00:04the risk premium that we're seeing in the Middle East right now?
00:09Well, it depends really on how people look at the risk in the Middle East. But I don't like
00:14to look at the situation in the Middle East without taking consideration the wider situation
00:19in global oil market, because we started the year with expectations of a notable surplus in the
00:24market. And therefore, what we are seeing today has caused some disruptions. Actually, every day
00:29we receive new news about further disruptions. So Iraq, for example, shut down its major oil
00:36producing feed because they are lacking of storage capacity. So at the moment, the market is not
00:42panicking. We are seeing a justifiable increase in the risk premium and in oil prices. But there is
00:48no serious deficit to start with in global oil markets. We do have some cushion from outside
00:55OPEC plus. Higher prices would encourage more shale production. It will not happen overnight,
01:00but it is going to provide some cushion, safety cushion. We do have the strategic petroleum reserves,
01:05but it was in the IEA members that can be activated if we are facing serious disruptions. We have a
01:10lot
01:11of oil unaccountable for the sanctioned oil that maybe could come to the relief from Russia and
01:15Venezuela today. So it's not a panicky stage. But again, if the situation further escalates and the
01:23war expands and the players in the region are dragged further into the war, then I would expect
01:28to see a worsening scenario when it comes to oil prices. But at the moment, I think that is a
01:33reasonable reaction that we are seeing in prices.
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