00:00Bob McNally of Rapid and Energy predicting disruptions will last a few more weeks writing this.
00:04It appears that our 30-day worst-case homers disruption scenario modeled last June may have been overly optimistic.
00:11Bob joined us now for more.
00:13Bob, welcome to the program.
00:14Speaking of optimism, there were a number of tankers that got through the strait yesterday.
00:18I think that provided some people in this market some comfort.
00:21Could you give us some perspective on that?
00:23Hi, John. I think you're right.
00:24You know, we also saw traders are probably hedging the beginning of the SPR draw in the United States.
00:30The president called for escorts and so forth.
00:34And as you noted, the Iranians are letting out a few hostages.
00:38And so Secretary Besson also made comments saying this is a good thing.
00:42You know, we're supporting it.
00:43So, you know, the market, John, in my view, is still coming to terms with the fact that a load
00:50-bearing assumption in energy is collapsing.
00:54And that load-bearing assumption is that the U.S. would permit anybody to strangle the Hormuz Strait for more
01:00than a few hours to days max.
01:03And so I think there's still this reservoir of kind of disbelief and hope that this is going to be
01:08over soon.
01:09That this math, these disruptions, not only for oil, other things, as you just noted, Danny noted, it's got to
01:15stop.
01:15And so we took a breather yesterday, but it's not stopping.
01:19And crude is going to march higher, I'm afraid.
01:21Bob, is it a good thing, though?
01:22I know you reiterated the words of the Treasury Secretary.
01:25Basically, the regime is saying this international waterway is not closed.
01:29It's controlled, and it's controlled by us.
01:33Right, Anne-Marie, but they're not going to let enough oil out to put oil prices down.
01:38What should have been obvious is Iran would play the only card it had,
01:42which was to inflict an oil price increase and a gas price increase on the president's.
01:47It's the only thing it has left. Its military is gone, even since last June.
01:51So Iran is going to let out a few tankers just to divide the United States from other countries
01:57and curry favor just enough.
01:59But it is not going to allow enough out to halt the upward march in crude and product prices, in
02:05my view.
02:05Let's see.
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