00:00The largest LNG facility in Qatar was hit, and the Qatar Energy CEO told Reuters that some 17%
00:06of that capacity could be offline now because of the damage and that it could take three to five
00:12years to repair. So for more on this, we go to Mike McGlone, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior
00:16Commodities Strategist. And Mike, obviously, we've talked to you a lot about the near-term
00:19versus longer-term case for oil and natural gas. But if we're talking infrastructure damage
00:25and capacity that may not come back online for that long, that far into the future, how is that
00:31changing your thesis, if at all? It's sticking with my thesis, Kayleigh. The key theme here is
00:39the longer this lasts and the higher prices go, most notably crude oil. You mentioned natural gas.
00:44It's more of a problem for the rest of the world. The more likely this energy crisis is going to
00:48tilt
00:49over to a global recession and did what it did in 2008. Just a key thing to remember, crude oil
00:53peaked
00:54at 147 in July 2008 with CPI at 5.6% and the end of the year down at 32
01:00and CPI bottom the next year
01:02at minus 2%. That's what I think is happening. That's what traders get. And you're starting to
01:07see that little bit in the long bond. The long bond yield is starting to tick down today because
01:11it sees an endgame. And you're seeing that with metals collapsing. This is starting to show the
01:19deflationary recessionary forces from this energy crisis.
01:22Wow. All right. I want to hear more about that, Mike, because you're right.
01:25Metals are falling out of bed and so are mining stocks. We're looking at gold right now down over
01:30$300 an ounce or 6%, just below 4,600. The headline on the terminal, gold mining stocks
01:35set to erase 2026 gains as rate cut bets fade. There's more at work here than Iran, it sounds like.
01:43Well, absolutely. Copper did it. Silver did it. Silver was up 63% in January. Now it's down almost
01:493% in the year. This is just getting started. And the reason I say that, Joe, is my key
01:53theme
01:54still hasn't happened. If you look at 60-day volatility on the S&P 500, it's still down on
01:59the year despite what's happening. So to me, that trickle up from all that massive volatility
02:04in crude oil and gold last year and crude oil this year, it's very rare not to go to the
02:09stock market. Right now we're seeing wobbling. And I think that's what the market's starting
02:12to worry about is this triggering what it did with 9-11. It triggered the acceleration
02:17and the downward trend in the stock market. Well, it's interesting. Just quickly, Mike,
02:22you've got gold down for a seventh session. What happened to buying gold in times of war?
02:26Well, that wasn't me. Gold told us. Gold, the time to buy gold was last year. Gold preempted
02:32it. Gold warned us. And gold was very much looked, it front ran it. And now that it went
02:38up. Gold's looking forward to that more secure future when Mr. Trump by midterms was going
02:44to say, well, Iran and Russia have lost Venezuela, Syria, Iran, and potentially Cuba. It's looking
02:50forward to the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and potentially maybe we've reached as bad
02:54as it can get.
Comments