00:00Let's talk about this shock, and can we start with the President's plan?
00:02Two pillars, really, to support traffic through the Strait Reformers,
00:05accompanying these ships with some kind of military presence, and then insurance.
00:08For an expert like yourself, how did you respond to the details of that?
00:12Well, I think the insurance move is obviously key, because that's what stopped the trade.
00:17And you've got the tankers absolutely within range of being attacked,
00:20but just sitting there and refusing to move until they get some sort of security.
00:24As you know, we've got 20 million barrels a day here and a 100 million barrel a day market,
00:28so you have to get this oil flowing.
00:31And I think, talking to Javier Blas on Monday, it was like, this has to be resolved by Friday,
00:35otherwise the market's going to start panicking again.
00:37If we're not getting this stuff flowing within days,
00:40if you're talking 20 million barrels a day at walking pace globally,
00:44every day that passes, you're developing a bigger and bigger problem.
00:47So it's a major concern, and it's very interesting that the market isn't responding more.
00:53It had run up into this, but it was also retaining a very strong backwardation,
00:57so a very high belief in future prices.
00:59I'm interested in your perspective on the calendar.
01:01This is important.
01:02We get a lot of people on the program, and we'll say, what do you think?
01:05And they'll say, it depends how long it lasts.
01:06And I'll say, what does that mean?
01:07What's circled on the calendar for you that it gets real?
01:09And they'll say weeks.
01:11They'll say a month.
01:11Let's see if it lasts a month.
01:12Why are days so important to you?
01:14Just because of the sheer volume that comes through here.
01:16I mean, you've had the Qataris voluntarily also back off LNG movement.
01:21And it's just the sheer weight of volume of everything that moves through the Straits
01:24that's so important, which makes it really a matter of days here.
01:27When you casually say, this could last four weeks,
01:30the market's not believing that at the moment.
01:32But I mean, if we do, it's going to be a major problem.
01:35And you've got to keep in mind, as we mentioned earlier,
01:38that with the Houthis, you haven't resolved the issue around the Red Sea.
01:40So we don't have proof that we can resolve these issues
01:44when we are threatened by terrorists attacking shipping lanes.
01:48We're talking to the Saudis and hearing they can now move 7 million barrels a day
01:52through the Red Sea, but they have an uncertainty.
01:55Will the tankers be able to even go through the Red Sea?
01:57So this is a crisis of shipping.
01:59And at the moment, the solutions are not obvious.
02:02You know, it's all words.
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