00:00People probably don't think about trading on Iran, for instance, and some of what is going on over there.
00:07What have you seen here in terms of the money that is changing hands and the controversy that's happening?
00:13Yeah, we can do a whole show just on this.
00:15This is a fascinating topic that you could bet slash trade on all sorts of things related to Iran.
00:21On Polymarket, which is an international site that doesn't technically serve the U.S., you could bet on whether there
00:25would be airstrikes.
00:26Obviously, there were on Saturday.
00:29You could bet on whether Aliya Khomeini would be out as the supreme leader of Iran.
00:35Obviously, he was hit in an airstrike.
00:38There was just a whole lot of people waking up to the fact that you could do this.
00:42One, there was half a billion dollars traded on these markets at Polymarket, far less at Calci because they're a
00:47U.S.-regulated prediction market.
00:49They're not supposed to technically have markets on death and assassination and war, but they still had a market about
00:56whether he would be out as leader,
00:57whether Almini would be ousted.
00:59But it wouldn't resolve as yes if he died, which is a very weird market to have.
01:05So we have that.
01:08We also have people, probably insider traders, on Polymarket betting right before the airstrikes half and right before Almini was
01:14killed,
01:15betting into the markets and winning millions of dollars.
01:18When you hear the prediction markets are the Wild West, this is why, because we're seeing all this happen in
01:22real time.
01:23And people are learning, yeah, okay, cool.
01:25We can bet on sports.
01:26That's like we like to bet.
01:27I like to bet on sports.
01:28That's cool.
01:28But like should we be betting on war and should we be betting on people dying?
01:34And, you know, it's where people get a little icky about all this stuff, right?
01:37Should – you know, people are saying on one side prediction market evangelists say this is great because we get
01:42more information about the world.
01:43How likely is it that people are going to – like is there going to be war in the Middle
01:46East?
01:46Which is, granted, an interesting thing to know, but that takes – letting people bet on it in turn and
01:52people just don't like that.
01:53We've seen a lot of senators and congresspeople like saying out loud, we don't like this and we think it
01:58should be stopped.
01:59It's not clear that it will, but for now, yeah, there's betting on Iran and now you can bet on
02:04things after the strikes.
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