00:01Public understanding of immigration levels appears to differ significantly from the official statistics.
00:08New polling highlighted by the Guardian suggests many voters believe numbers are continuing to rise,
00:14even though recent data shows a substantial decline.
00:18Immigration is certainly the big issue of politics and has been for the last 10, 15, 20 years.
00:26Insofar as, of course, if I go back 10 years ago this summer, it's the 10th anniversary of Brexit,
00:33or the vote to leave the European Union, and many believe in large part that was driven by a view
00:38that what a lot of the public wanted was fewer immigrants coming in and taking so-called jobs
00:47and being entitled to benefits and all that sort of came with the single European market.
00:52That's, dare I say, almost ancient history, and indeed we've seen a lot fewer people from Eastern Europe,
00:58quite clearly, coming. Indeed, that particular route into the UK has stopped.
01:04But, of course, what has happened, and particularly under a certain Boris Johnson,
01:08of course, who was a big supporter of leaving the EU, we've had immigration from other parts of the world.
01:13But the very word conjures up lots of particular connotations and, indeed, has not been helped by the fact
01:20that we've seen a remarkable rise in the number of people making the really hazardous crossing over the Channel
01:27and arriving in small boats, so to speak, driven by those who facilitated people smugglers,
01:34who provide the way, wherewithal, if you like, to get here.
01:38And, of course, these people can come from many parts of the world, so many of them have travelled through
01:42various parts of Europe
01:44in order to get to, sort of, to Calais and make the final crossing if they can do.
01:49According to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics,
01:53net migration has dropped sharply from recent highs, falling by more than half compared to peak levels.
01:59Despite that shift, the poll found a clear majority of respondents think immigration is increasing.
02:05Researchers say headline debates around border policy and asylum arrivals can influence how overall trends are interpreted.
02:13As a society, we're becoming an increasing age at one.
02:16We need, sort of, replenishment because the whole society works upon taxes,
02:22and taxes are, sort of, created by working people.
02:24And if you have an age at society, they eventually come to the point where they no longer work because
02:28they're retired,
02:29and you have to, sort of, look after them in terms of social care costs, health, pensions,
02:34which, of course, is another, sort of, big issue.
02:36It's this whole affordability thing.
02:38Now, of course, the thing about, sort of, immigration is the, sort of, the detractors say,
02:42we must stop it.
02:43Well, that's all well and good.
02:45Indeed, there is a, sort of, view that, sort of, immigration has come down so rapidly,
02:49although this is not making the headlines as much as perhaps it should do,
02:52that we may be a, sort of, situation later on this year or maybe next year,
02:55and certainly come into the next general election, whereby net migration is negative.
03:01I, more people are leaving than coming in.
03:04Now, of course, for the, sort of, the, those who wish to, sort of, Britain to become purist,
03:08they would say, well, that's a good thing because, of course, it's about indigenous people
03:11and the opportunities that they have in terms of jobs and so on and so forth.
03:14But I come back to the fact that we need a viable economy
03:18and you need lots of young people who are, sort of, having children themselves
03:22because, of course, that's the next wave, if you like, of those who are going to take the, sort of,
03:26jobs
03:26which we need, or revenues to come to keep the whole, sort of, cycle going.
03:31So it's a difficult, difficult question.
03:33But, dare I say it, perhaps in conclusion, the real difficulty for politicians is
03:38they don't want to confront this quite precisely because of the toxicity of the issue
03:43and, indeed, it's easy to say we're going to, sort of, stop immigration
03:46and that will, sort of, they believe, bring the votes that they want.
03:49We shall, sort of, see what happens in the next election
03:51and if a certain, sort of, Nigel Farage gets in,
03:53he may be confronted by a, sort of, an economy which is in huge problems
03:57in terms of creating the, sort of, the money he needs to run the, sort of, the country in general.
04:02As political debate continues, experts say understanding both the statistics
04:07and public concerns will be central to shaping future immigration policy.
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