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Link:https://www.mlb.com/tigers/news/revisiting-number-1-prospect-prediction-2026-season
Important warning⚠️⚠️
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incorrect, late, or outdated.
#AfterTwoYears#ProspectReview#PredictionCheck#SportsUpdate#DraftProspects#YouthMovement#TalentEvaluation#ProspectWatch#SportsCommentary#HighlightReel#FutureSuperstars#ScoutingVideo#PlayerComparison#RookieWatch#DraftDay#ProspectDeepDive#SportsVlog#AnalysisVideo#TrendingSports#ViralSports
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NewsTranscript
00:01Hey Tigers fans, let's talk about something we all love to do, playing fortune teller
00:05with prospects, let's rewind to about 2 years ago, at that time, a lot of us in the baseball
00:10world were making bold predictions about who would be the number 1 prospect in each organization
00:14today.
00:15Well, the future is now, so it's time to grade those predictions and see how we did.
00:20Before we dive into the results, a couple of important notes on how we got here.
00:24In 13 of the 30 organizations, the current number 1 prospect hadn't even started their
00:30pro career yet.
00:3112 of them came from the 2024 or 2025 drafts, and one joined through the 2025 international
00:38signing period.
00:39On top of that, one of the guys we predicted to be the top guy actually did become a number
00:451 prospect, but for a different team after a trade.
00:49And finally, one of our predictions graduated from prospect status last year, by making
00:55it to the big leagues ahead of schedule.
00:57So if you take those 15 teams, out of the equation, we correctly predicted the top prospect in 6
01:03out of the remaining 15 organizations, that's a 400 average, which as you know, is a mark
01:09no one has hit in the big leagues since Ted Williams back in 1941.
01:14Let's break this down, division by division, and see exactly what happened.
01:18We'll start in the American League East.
01:21In Toronto, we predicted shortstop Arjun Nimala would be the guy.
01:25Instead, the top spot belongs to right-hander Trey Yesovich, who is ranked number 12 overall
01:32in MLB.
01:33The Blue Jays have three recent first-rounders in the top 100, and while Nimala is third among
01:38them, it's not a knock on him.
01:40At just 20, he improved his chase rate in high A last year, and as he adds strength to his
01:45six-foot-one frame, he has the potential to hit 25-plus homers.
01:49He and 2025 top pick Jojo Parker could be battling for the future at shortstop in Toronto, down
01:55in Baltimore.
01:56We picked outfielder Enrique Bradfield Jr.
02:00The actual top guy is Samuel Basalo, a catcher and first baseman ranked eighth overall.
02:06Bradfield stole 74 bases in his first full pro season, but hamstring issues limited him to
02:1276 games and 36 steals.
02:15In 2025, he's an elite defender and a constant threat on the bases, and he could help the
02:21Orioles this year, but questions about his offensive impact have dropped him from the
02:25top prospect conversation.
02:27For the Rays, our pick was first baseman Xavier Isaac.
02:31The real number one is shortstop Carson Williams, ranked 63rd.
02:35Isaac has some of the best raw power in the minors, which is what we were banking on, but
02:40a lot has changed.
02:41Most significantly, he underwent brain surgery last July.
02:45He's back in big league camp on a non-roster invite this spring, which is a great sign.
02:50When he returns, the focus will be on his contact rate, as he's struck out in 34.4% of
02:57his double-A plate appearances since 2024.
03:00In Boston, we picked outfielder Miguel Blaze.
03:03The top prospect now is left-hander Peyton Toll, ranked 19th.
03:07Bly still shows four-plus tools, raw power, speed, arm, and centerfield defense, which
03:14earned him a $1.5 million bonus in 2021, but he's been too aggressive at the plate and hasn't
03:20added strength as hoped.
03:22Last year, he batted just two un-22 odds with 14 homers and 27 steals across two levels,
03:28and for the Yankees, we predicted shortstop Roderick Arias, the actual number one is infielder
03:33George Lombard Jr., ranked 32nd.
03:37New York overhauled their international program this offseason, partly because big-money signings
03:41like Arias haven't worked out.
03:43Arias got a $4 million bonus but has hit only tight-to-21 fine in single-A and won't even
03:49make their top 30 this year.
03:51Now let's move to the AL Central.
03:53In Cleveland, we had Ralphie Velasquez, a catcher and first baseman, the top guy is
03:58Travis Bazzana, the number one overall pick in the 2024 draft, ranked 20th.
04:04Velasquez has become a great first-base prospect, but Bazzana is the game's top second-base prospect.
04:10He posted a .246 average between double and triple-A in his first full season, despite a
04:16nagging oblique strain, showing a very disciplined approach.
04:19For the Royals, we predicted catcher Blake Mitchell, ranked 75th.
04:24The top spot now goes to fellow catcher Carter Jensen, ranked 18th, after his rise to the
04:29majors.
04:29Mitchell, the eighth overall pick in 2023, had his 2025 season delayed by a broken Hamate
04:35bone.
04:36He's still a strong defender, and he showed his high power potential with a 116.5 MPH homer
04:42in the Arizona Fall League.
04:44But after significant swing and miss issues in high A, he'll need a healthier and more
04:48productive 22-20-20-20-26 to challenge Jensen as the long-term successor to Salvador Perez.
04:58Alright Tigers fans, here's the one you've been waiting for.
05:02For the Tigers, we picked outfielder Max Clark, who is currently ranked number 10 overall in
05:07baseball.
05:07And the actual top guy in the system, it's shortstop Kevin McGonigal, who comes in at
05:13number 2 overall.
05:14McGonigal may have edged past Clark because of his hit tool, which is the best in the
05:19minors, but honestly, there's a ton to like.
05:22About Clark.
05:23Now 21, with two full seasons under his belt, he makes good swing decisions and has improved
05:29his mechanics enough to project for average power.
05:31With plus-plus speed, he's a potential 60-grade defender in center field, Max Clark would be
05:37the top prospect in 21 other organizations, and he could be a key contributor for Detroit
05:42in the second half, if his progression continues.
05:45Over in Minnesota, we predicted Walker Jenkins, and, he remains the top guy, ranked 14th.
05:52We might have gotten a little lucky here because, if he had stayed healthy, he might have graduated
05:57from prospect status by now, even with hamstring and ankle issues limiting him the last two
06:02years, he still reached AAA last year and has a career, pointeen 63 OPS, and on the south
06:09side, the White Sox, we picked left-hander Noah Schultz, ranked 49th, but the top guy is
06:15now outfielder Braden Montgomery, ranked 36th.
06:19Montgomery was still in college when we made our prediction, so this feels like a win.
06:23Schultz is still close behind on the top 100 despite a season where his stuff and control
06:27slipped while he battled tendinitis.
06:29Moving to the AL West, the Angels, we predicted outfielder Nelson Rada, but the top spot goes
06:36to their 2025 first-round pick, right-hander Tyler Bremner, ranked 81st.
06:42In our defense, the Angels promote their prospects quickly, so this is a tough one to predict.
06:47Rada took a nice step forward last year, especially in AAA, and he just turned 20, so he won't be
06:53far off the top spot.
06:54Houston, we picked Luis Baez, but the top guy is Kevin Alvarez.
06:58The Astros are the only team not on the top 100 this year, but Alvarez draws comparisons
07:03to a young Kyle Tucker, Baez, who got a $1.3 million bonus, still has great bat speed and
07:10raw power, but his approach needs work and he won't crack their top 30.
07:14After a tough year in AA, for the A's, we predicted third baseman Miles Naylor.
07:18The top guy is Leo DeVries, ranked 4th overall, and we get half credit here, because we did
07:24predict DeVries would be a top prospect, just for the Padres before they sent him to Oakland
07:28in the Mason Miller trade.
07:30Things haven't gone well for Naylor, who has a career 193 average and has fallen off their
07:35top 30 completely.
07:36In Seattle, we predicted Colt Emerson, and he remains the top guy, ranked 9th.
07:41He's one of the best pure hitters in the minors, with a career .287 average, and he reached
07:47AAA last year while becoming a terrific shortstop.
07:50He's even competing for a big league roster spot this spring.
07:54And Texas, we predicted Sebastian Walcott, and he's still the top guy, ranked 7th, signed
07:59for $3.2 million out of the Bahamas.
08:02He was on the top 100 before he turned 18.
08:05At age 19 last year, he held his own in AA.
08:09However, he was just diagnosed with a torn elbow ligament and will require Tommy John's
08:14surgery, sidelining him for most, if not all, of 20,000 turbidows and tee.
08:20Endured 25.
08:23Now, let's head to the National League East, Atlanta.
08:26We picked shortstop Jose Perdomo.
08:28The actual top guy is left-hander Cam Caminiti, ranked 68th.
08:32Perdomo, who got a $5 million bonus, has struggled to stay healthy and develop.
08:37He's played just 62 games in two years due to injuries, and the Braves still don't know
08:41what kind of offensive player he might be.
08:44Miami.
08:44We picked right-hander Noble Meyer, but the top spot belongs to left-hander Thomas White.
08:50Right-hander Maibor, upper-court, trender-courer, kudra-board.
08:55Chander-body, 17th.
08:57The Marlins spent big on both prep pitchers in the 2023 draft, but only White has lived up
09:02to expectations.
09:03Meyer's fastball and control have regressed significantly.
09:06The Mets, we predicted outfielder Ryan Clifford.
09:09The top guy is now right-hander Nolan McClain, ranked 6th.
09:13Clifford, now 22, showed some quality contact rates in AAA last year while still hitting the
09:19ball hard.
09:20He could be an option in Queens before long.
09:22Washington.
09:23We picked outfielder Christian Vaccaro.
09:26The top guy is shortstop Eli Willits, ranked 13th.
09:30Vaccaro signed for nearly $5 million in 2022, but he still has an advanced pass single-end.
09:36He's cut down on his swing and miss, but with the Nationals adding prospects, he'll have
09:41to fight his way back into prominence.
09:42Philadelphia.
09:43We predicted shortstop Starlin Cabba.
09:46The actual number one is shortstop Aiden Miller, ranked 23rd.
09:50Cabba has since been traded to the Marlins in the Jesus Luzardo deal.
09:53He remains one of the best defensive shortstops in the minors, but the bat hasn't developed
09:57as hoped.
09:58Over in the NL Central Milwaukee, we picked outfielder Yafari Rodriguez.
10:02The top guy is now, Jesus Maid, an infielder ranked 3rd overall.
10:08The Brewers were aggressive with young prospects like Churio, and we thought they'd do the same
10:13with Rodriguez.
10:14He was sent to single A at 18 and held his own, but he was traded to Boston last April.
10:19Maid, on the other hand, has been the one to most closely resemble Churio's incredible
10:23rise.
10:24St. Louis.
10:25We predicted catcher Leonardo Bernal, ranked 98th.
10:28The top spot belongs to infielder J.J.
10:31Weatherholt, ranked 5th.
10:33Bernal's defense gives him a solid floor.
10:35He won a minor league gold glove last year, but his offense has been inconsistent, preventing
10:40him from reaching those top-tier heights.
10:42The Cubs.
10:43We predicted Moises, Balesteros, and he remains the top guy, ranked 55th.
10:49He's exactly what he looked like 2 years ago, a gifted hitter with 20 homer upside, but
10:54questions about his defense.
10:56After finishing 4th in the AAA batting race, at age 21, he projects as the Cubs' primary
11:02DH and occasional catcher in 2026.
11:05Pittsburgh.
11:06We rolled the dice on outfielder Lonnie White.
11:08The actual top prospect is Connor Griffin, ranked No. 1 overall in baseball.
11:13White was a two-sport star who has struggled to stay healthy.
11:17He's shown some signs of life, but has a career.
11:202.16 average as he approaches age 23, Cincinnati.
11:24We predicted shortstop Ricardo Cabrera.
11:27The top guy is infielder Sal Stewart, ranked 22nd.
11:30Cabrera's U.S. debut in 2023 was encouraging, but his 2025 was lost to a knee injury.
11:37He's been moved off shortstop, and the hope now is, he can recover well enough to stick
11:41at third base.
11:42And finally, the NL West, Arizona.
11:44We picked outfielder Drew Jones.
11:47The top prospect now is outfielder Ryan Waldschmidt, ranked 59th.
11:51We gave Jones some grace for early injuries two years ago, but he still hasn't broken through
11:56offensively.
11:57His swing puts the ball on the ground too often, limiting his power.
12:01His defense will keep him in their top 30, but the offense hasn't arrived yet.
12:05The Dodgers.
12:06We predicted Josue DePaula, and he remains the top guy, ranked 15th.
12:12Signed for just $397,500 in 2022, he's now drawing comparisons to a slightly smaller Jordan
12:19Alvarez.
12:20At age 20 last year, he ranked second in the pitcher-friendly Midwest League in on-base
12:25percentage OPS and walks.
12:27San Francisco.
12:28We predicted Bryce Eldridge, and he's still the top guy.
12:31Ranked 25th.
12:32The best two-way talent from the 2023 draft, the Giants made him a full-time first baseman.
12:37He's now the best power prospect in the game, slashing 260 with 25 homers in 100 games across
12:44two levels, before becoming the youngest position player in the majors last September, at age
12:4820, San Diego.
12:50We predicted Leo DeVries, and he was ranked fourth, but he's no longer in the organization.
12:55The Padres moved him to the A's at the trade deadline for Mason Miller.
12:58Their top guy now is left-hander Cruz Schoolcraft, ranked 88th.
13:03To our credit, DeVries would be their top prospect if he were still around, and Colorado, we predicted
13:07right-hander Chase DeLander.
13:09The top guy now is shortstop Ethan Holliday, ranked 24th.
13:13We mentioned two years ago that DeLander might graduate, by now.
13:17But it was a rough ride.
13:18He finished with a 6.52 ERA over 21 starts, struggling with command and injuries.
13:24So, looking back, it's clear that the prospect world changes fast.
13:28Some of our picks panned out, some got traded, and some are still developing.
13:33The big question for us as fans is this.
13:35Of all the players we just talked about, which one are you most excited to see make an impact
13:39in the big leagues this year?
13:41Well-
13:41Well-
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