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The Race to Deploy AI and Raise Skills in Europe and Beyond
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00:00As we have just seen, we might as well get comfortable with change,
00:05especially when it comes to artificial intelligence and the future of work.
00:10By 2030, it is estimated that we will experience
00:15a massive transition in the occupation of work.
00:21Some experts say that jobs will be lost, others say that jobs will evolve,
00:26and others say that you will not be replaced by AI,
00:30but someone who will use AI to outperform you.
00:37As usual, this is good and bad news.
00:41On the one hand, the newer updated skills can solve the current labour market tightness
00:47and revive productivity growth.
00:49On the other hand, this means that those currently on the market
00:53needs to wake up, relearn, and adapt quickly to stay up to date with the latest innovations.
01:04Let's take a better glimpse into this future and avoid staying behind
01:10through a presentation by McKinsey.
01:14Please join me in welcoming Eric Azan, Senior Partner at McKinsey,
01:21Waylon Ellinger, Senior Partner and Director at McKinsey Global Institute.
01:27Welcome.
01:43Good morning, everyone.
01:45I'm Eric Azan.
01:46I'm a Senior Partner at McKinsey in Paris,
01:48and I'm a member of the McKinsey Global Institute Council.
01:51I focus on digital transformation and technological breakthrough.
01:56So today, I'm excited to be here with my colleague,
01:59Quelyne Ellinger, to talk about the rise of artificial intelligence
02:04and its impact on the labour force.
02:06Here is what I believe.
02:09AI and Gen.AI have disrupted the world over the past year,
02:12but now we are entering in a race to deploy the technology
02:17and to prepare the future of work without leaving workers behind.
02:24Hello.
02:24I'm Quelyne Ellinger, a Senior Partner at McKinsey & Company
02:28and Director of the McKinsey Global Institute.
02:31I'm excited to talk about the impact of Gen.AI across the world,
02:35but particularly here in the EU,
02:36because I think it's both an opportunity and a threat.
02:39and we'll talk about how the opportunity faces us,
02:42but how we can rise to the occasion to re-skill and up-skill
02:45to ensure that workers are taken care of along the way.
02:54So let me tell you a story about the Roaring Twenties.
03:00It has been documented by Jeff Fagenbaum and Daniel Gross,
03:03which are two professors from the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research.
03:07Remember telephone operators.
03:10Their task was to connect cable to directors to the right person.
03:15Telephone operators represented 160,000 workers in 1929,
03:22when the occupation peaked,
03:25making AT&T the first U.S. employer at that time.
03:30However, an engineer invented the mechanical system to automate calls,
03:35and telephone operators progressively disappeared.
03:40Fagenbaum and Gross found out that in the short term,
03:44there has been job losses and wage decrease for the automated operators,
03:49especially because no support structure was deployed to help the workers to re-skill.
03:55But then, they ended up having no reduction of their employment rates,
04:01occupying higher paying jobs with better career opportunities.
04:05The automation of telephone operators, it tells us one thing.
04:11With re-skilling, automation may represent an opportunity for workers.
04:19Collectively, we must take the right decision to ensure that the transition generates value for society.
04:24So, to understand these challenges, five questions.
04:28How has the labour market changed?
04:31And how is it changing?
04:33What will the future of work look like?
04:35What skills will we need in the future?
04:38And what if we fail to adopt them?
04:41How to unleash a new frontier of productivity alongside human capital?
04:48What actions should we take tomorrow?
04:54Before diving into these questions, let's step back for a minute.
04:59Very different from when I started my career.
05:03The labour market is in a unique situation.
05:07With labour shortages in Europe and in the US.
05:10We have the lowest unemployment rates since a couple of decades.
05:16Looking at these two graphs, you can see that unfilled positions have surged,
05:21almost tripling since 2012.
05:24At the same time, unemployment has been divided by two in both regions,
05:30US and Western Europe.
05:32Moreover, beyond this tense labour market, and if we want to create jobs, we need productivity growth.
05:42And our Western economies are facing a long-term decline of productivity growth.
05:48Post-war, we have recorded a surging productivity growth fueled by demographic boom,
05:55fast-paced innovation, investment in manufacturing, construction and education.
06:00However, in the past 50 years, both Europe and US have seen a decline in productivity growth.
06:07Over the past 10 years, we have witnessed divergence between Europe and US.
06:15While Europe has reached its lowest growth level,
06:19US is benefiting from ICT revolution.
06:24So now, as Europe looks into the future, the advent of automation, AI, and Gen.AI presents unparalleled opportunities for
06:38productivity and growth.
06:40Yet, this will demand swift occupational transition and growth for workers.
06:48Europe is entering into a race for raising skills and adopting technologies which could create a more prosperous future for
06:59all.
07:00Hueline, can you tell us how will the future of work look like?
07:04Absolutely. There are a broad set of trends affecting the labour markets.
07:10The biggest one that we're talking about today is the impact of Gen.AI and AI more broadly on the
07:16labour force.
07:17When you add all of that together, including demographic forces, including aging, Gen.AI could affect about 30%, including AI,
07:2630% of the work activities across occupations.
07:30In fact, we took 800 different occupations, decomposed them into underlying activities,
07:35and for each activity assessed two questions.
07:38One, given technology today, can it be automated or could you apply Gen.AI?
07:44And two, given the wages of the people doing that work, does it make sense?
07:48Is there a business case to automate?
07:49And with those two questions added back up the underlying activities and said,
07:54what is likely to be automated or applied in terms of AI and Gen.AI in the future?
07:59And so you see 30% of activities by 2030, 45% of activities by 2035.
08:06So quite a bit, and this is the overarching, kind of most stark effect on the labour market.
08:12But there are other effects on the labour market as well.
08:15We've got the net zero transition, and there will be a lot of jobs gained and jobs lost.
08:20The net effect of that in Europe is about 2 million more jobs, which is great news.
08:26In the US, that's about 700,000 more jobs.
08:30You also have aging.
08:31Across Europe, we've seen much more aging.
08:34In fact, 12 million more people over 65.
08:37That means also a dwindling workforce in the next, you know, between now and 2030.
08:43We see this also across Asia, in China, in Japan, in South Korea.
08:47In fact, when we think about the workforce of the next few decades,
08:51that will largely be in India and Africa, given birth rates that have already happened.
08:56We also have other forces at work in the labour market.
08:59E-commerce growth will be growing at a high single digits, low double digits.
09:04And then we also have infrastructure investments driving about 12% growth in those types of jobs.
09:09So lots of different forces coming at play in the labour markets.
09:16If you add all of this together, there are jobs that are rising.
09:20There will be more in the future.
09:21There are jobs that are sort of losing.
09:23We'll have a lot less of them in the future.
09:25And then there's a mix of jobs in the middle that are more stable, more stagnant.
09:28On the declining occupations, and there will be 13% less of these across the EU,
09:34a few examples are office support, customer service and sales, given the e-commerce that we just talked about,
09:41and production work or manufacturing.
09:44There's a set of stable jobs here in the middle, about flat or up by 4% or so.
09:49More in the building, educators, transportation services, including kind of last-mile delivery.
09:55And then, excitingly, there's a number of rising occupations.
09:58So for those of you who have children who are studying in university,
10:01these may be the types of jobs that you want them to train for, the skills that they want for
10:05the future.
10:06This would be basically healthcare jobs, given demographics, as well as STEM jobs.
10:11So health aides, health professionals, STEM professionals, these will be growing at about 15% across the EU.
10:18So you kind of take the net of that, the shrinking jobs, the growing jobs, the stable jobs.
10:24The exciting part is there will be more jobs in the future, given demographic trends and aging and all of
10:29this.
10:29But the nature of the jobs will be fundamentally different.
10:34And so, as we look at all of this transition, there's both an exciting but also potentially scary thing that
10:41faces us.
10:41As you add up all those occupations, there could be between 9 and 12 million occupational transitions between now and
10:492030 across the EU.
10:51In a rather rigid labor market, where it takes both longer than many other countries,
10:57as well as more money than many other countries to transition jobs, that is a very tough challenge.
11:02That rate, 12 million of labor transitions, occupational transitions, is double the rate pre-COVID.
11:11Interestingly, it's about the same number as in the United States, but that's actually a little bit less than the
11:17occupational transition rate that the US has seen pre-COVID.
11:20It's a much more dynamic labor force, much more switching, more quickly, and often at lower cost.
11:28And if you spread all of this out, down the side, you see all of the different occupations that we
11:32were just talking about, right?
11:34The shrinking occupations, the stable ones, some of the growing ones.
11:37Across the side, you see all of the different countries, as well as the EU and US as a comparison
11:42point.
11:44When you look at all of this, the pace of occupational transition is the blended average of about 7%.
11:50And so the pace and scale is the same across the board, but the mix is very, very different.
11:54So, for example, in the Netherlands and UK, you have much less production work and manufacturing.
12:01In Poland, you have much more agriculture.
12:03And so the country-specific mix will be different as this plays out and GNAI impacts across different countries.
12:11So in that context, we have seen over past decades, automation taking place.
12:17But GNAI will affect a new set of occupations.
12:20Our research shows that automation in the US and Europe will reach about 30% of current work hours.
12:28GNAI will, in fact, boost these formal numbers by 7 to 9 percentage points.
12:35By 2035, this number will reach 45% of the work hours.
12:41So the GNAI incremental increase will concern knowledge workers such as STEM jobs, as well as business and legal professionals,
12:51for example.
12:54Now, AI and GNAI will not only lead to occupational transition, but they will also change the way workers do
13:02their jobs.
13:03They have the potential to augment workers.
13:05We can rank occupations across two dimensions, their exposure to AI and their complementarity potential when technology is expanding human
13:17labor without replacing it.
13:19So occupations showing a high level of complementarity and a high exposure such as legal occupations will have a low
13:27risk of strict automation, but will be evolved.
13:30Conversely, high exposure and low complementarity will potentially lead to a higher risk of automation in the bottom right quadrant.
13:41Let's zoom in two striking examples of how occupation will change.
13:45On the one hand, family doctors could increase the time they dedicate to patient care with more accurate diagnosis through
13:53the technological tools and evidence-based treatment recommendations.
13:58On the other hand, customer service representatives face high exposure to automation and lower complementarity potential.
14:06Automation could take over routine tasks, creating opportunities to step up towards managerial roles.
14:15Sectors will be impacted in different ways.
14:20In the healthcare sector, there will be a substantial increase in demand for nurses, pharmacists, personal care workers, projected to
14:27increase by up to 31%.
14:30In the manufacturing sector, the impact of AI will be mixed, engineers will see demand rise by over 15%, while
14:38financial clerks experience a significant decline in demand.
14:42And this, you can see, is also attaching financial services and retail.
14:49What is truly exciting is that some companies are already adapting to this technological transition.
14:58Every day, we see businesses on the move.
15:01You see, Walmart has launched a significant upskilling plan, as well as AT&T, that has identified a massive skills
15:11gap to close, to remain competitive.
15:14And they have engaged a reskilling program of 50% of their global workforce, notably to upskill employees on their
15:23technology, new technology capabilities.
15:26Allianz and Artford, which are two insurance companies, have redesigned the processes on claims to redesign also their organization.
15:38We talked earlier about the occupations that were growing and shrinking across the EU, but what about the skills that
15:45we'll all need more of in the future?
15:47We did a survey over 11,000 executives, senior executives across the EU and the United States, and asked them,
15:54on the X axis, how much more of these different skills will we need by 2030?
15:59And on the Y axis, how much do we use this skill today in our day-to-day work?
16:04What you see in the top right is all of us will need a lot more technological skills.
16:09And this doesn't mean coding, because Gen.AI has made that a lot less valuable, but it's things around advanced
16:14IT, advanced data and analytics.
16:17It's also, how do you interact with technology effectively to be productive?
16:22In the middle, kind of medium, we're using it today, but we'll also see significant growth in demand, is what
16:28we call social and emotional skills.
16:30These are complementary skills to AI and Gen.AI.
16:33It is, can you interact with a human and build trust?
16:36Can you build a relationship?
16:38Can you see an interaction and react empathetically?
16:41These are the fundamentally human interactions and skills that we'll all need more of.
16:45And I would say in an age of social media, it may be even harder to build these skills today.
16:50We'll all need a lot more of those in the future.
16:56Beyond the skills, if you flip.
17:00We also asked these same executives, how much are you going to be using retraining your employees versus contracting versus
17:07hiring new employees?
17:0987% of the executives said, I have to use all three of these levers.
17:13I have no choice.
17:14Of those that were going to retrain their own employees, they're going to retrain about a third of them.
17:19And about half of them using retraining programs or on the job mentoring and training.
17:26Of those that wanted to hire new employees, about 23% of that kind of pool was going to be
17:33used.
17:33And of those that wanted to use contractors, they thought about 18% would be solved through contractors.
17:40So what will be the impact on wages?
17:45Our modeling shows an increasing demand for higher wage occupation, which might appear as a great opportunity for individuals to
17:53reallocate to higher paying jobs.
17:56In the meantime, we see a decline in demand for low wage occupation.
18:02Their share in overall employment will decrease.
18:06This means that lower wage workers will face critical challenges.
18:11First, in both Europe and the US, workers with lower wages will see more job losses.
18:20Secondly, these workers will need to acquire new skills to transition to in-demand jobs.
18:27If that doesn't happen, there is a risk of a much more polarized labor market and a more polarized society.
18:36In mirror to my introduction, it illustrates the fact that the failure in supporting workers during transition could result in
18:47excess demand for high wage jobs and excess supply for low wage jobs, accentuating wage inequalities.
18:59This can be a very positive story.
19:03The key will be addressing the risk killing challenge.
19:08Higher wage occupation tend to use twice as much technological skills and three times more emotional and social skills as
19:18low wage occupation.
19:20Building these skills will be paramount to ensure a successful deployment of AI and to see a positive social impact
19:29on workers.
19:32So how does this all come together?
19:34A few different scenarios for how this could play out.
19:38I think the biggest factor here on the y-axis is how quickly do we adopt technology?
19:43How quickly do we adopt AI and Gen AI in particular?
19:46Now, this is Viva Tech, so I'm sure you all love technology.
19:50Outside this room, there may be some who are a little more skeptical, a little bit more scared of the
19:54impact on workers.
19:55I would say it is the largest single productivity lever we know right now.
20:00And so if we actually have a faster adoption of AI, Gen AI, that could get us to between two
20:06and a half to three percent productivity growth.
20:09That is the highest we've seen in decades in the EU and in the United States, as Eric shared earlier.
20:15The other dimension that dictates how we come out of this next few decades is deployment.
20:21If we can redeploy 100% of the worker time that we save through AI and Gen AI applications, we
20:27come out much better on the three percent range of productivity growth.
20:30If we only redeploy 80% or 60% or less, we come out at lower productivity growth rates.
20:36So that will depend on us how quickly we adopt and how much and effectively we redeploy.
20:46So what do we all do about this, right? What can leaders do?
20:49Each of you, as you lead your organizations through this, can take a couple of steps.
20:53One is anticipate the future of work.
20:56Where are the jobs growing?
20:57What are the skills that we'll need more of?
20:59And how does that affect your workforce?
21:02The second is to translate that into a workforce plan, a strategic plan.
21:06How does that affect different jobs?
21:08How are you going to actually build and retain those skills over time?
21:11And then the third is to launch a talent transformation to, at scale, train, reskill, upskill your workers so that
21:18they can be the workers that we'll need for the jobs of the future that are evolving today.
21:23The enabler to all of this is an executive learning journey so that executives know how to lead their organizations
21:29through all of this change and also know how to apply AI and Gen AI across the value chain.
21:37I hope Eric and I have shown the essence of this quote, which is technology can be both a curse
21:43and a blessing.
21:44We can use technology to create more fulfilling jobs and improve living standards, or we can use it to exacerbate
21:50inequality.
21:51And I hope that collectively we can help us on the opportunity side, the upside of that piece.
21:58You can find the report for free online or using this QR code.
22:02Thank you very much.
22:03Thank you so much.
22:05Thank you very much.
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