00:00So of those five guys, I'll do the five guys first, that were part of that old-timers committee and coaches and contributors and owners and whatnot,
00:07only one of those five guys got in, that was Roger Craig, so congratulations to Roger Craig.
00:11Yes.
00:12So I found it interesting that you had 50 people voting, you needed 40 votes to get in, and you could only vote for three of the five contestants, okay?
00:21Right.
00:21So I called my son up, who's really computer savvy.
00:26I said I want you to go on whatever your favorite AI program is, math program, and I want you to put the following results in, okay?
00:32We're following the equation in.
00:35You have five candidates, you have 50 voters, by rule every voter can only vote for three of the five contestants,
00:43and you need 40 votes to make it into the Hall of Fame.
00:47What are the odds with those parameters that only one of the five finalists would advance into the Hall of Fame?
00:55Yeah.
00:55Now, if I already told you this, we don't have to play the game here, but if you had to take a guess,
01:00what are the odds, based on the parameters that the Hall of Fame set up,
01:04that only one of the five contestants would actually get in to the Hall of Fame?
01:09You see, I was thinking that it would be like maybe a 10% chance.
01:14Okay.
01:15Because you're not, allegedly, you're not allowed to vote for zero.
01:19Correct.
01:19You have to vote for three.
01:20You have to vote for three of the five.
01:21So if you move it around, it would have to almost fall perfectly, it feels like, for only one to get in.
01:27You would think there'd be enough crossover votes to where, yeah.
01:30Seems like it, right?
01:31Yeah.
01:31Because you're not talking about a lot of people.
01:33It's not like three out of 30.
01:34Right.
01:34Like three out of five.
01:36Yeah.
01:36It feels like 60%, right?
01:37Yeah.
01:37So maybe 10, maybe 15%.
01:40All right.
01:40What if I said lower, Bob?
01:42Let's go 10% like I originally said.
01:455% chance.
01:46Lower, Bob.
01:47Four.
01:47Lower, Bob.
01:48Three.
01:49Lower, Bob.
01:50Two.
01:50Lower, Bob.
01:51That's a one.
01:52One.
01:53And that's my problem with, you know, good for Roger Craig to get in.
01:56It's not a Roger Craig issue.
01:57I think he deserved it.
01:58So the odds, the basic mathematical odds with those parameters, 50 people voting, 40 votes
02:05to get in.
02:05Every voter has to vote for three out of the five people can't vote for more, can't vote
02:09for less, okay?
02:10The odds for only one person of those five men, or women, ultimately, to get in is only
02:171%.
02:18Now, the odds of two of those five people getting in is 0.003%, meaning there's no mathematical
02:26law equation, that would get two of those people in.
02:30Now, here's what I find.
02:31That's just math.
02:32That's pure math.
02:33Yeah, yeah.
02:33That's got nothing to do with the other people involved, Hall of Fame, Belichick, none of
02:36that stuff.
02:37I didn't realize how slim the odds were based on those parameters for anybody to get in.
02:43Yeah.
02:43And even less for multiple people to get in.
02:46I thought, and I was totally wrong on this, that based on those parameters, all right, you
02:50need 40 out of 50 votes, you got 50, blah, blah, blah, blah, and you got to vote
02:54for three people.
02:54I thought for sure, when it was announced that Belichick wasn't in, and that Kraft wasn't
03:00in, that at least two of the players of the three, Kenny Anderson, Elsie Greenwood, and
03:05of course, Roger Craig, who did get in, would have gotten in.
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