00:00What role might the box office play in this year's Oscar race?
00:03How movies like Top Gun Maverick and everything...
00:05everywhere all at once might break the mold of recent years?
00:08Hi everyone, I'm Scott Feinberg, the executive...
00:10better of awards at The Hollywood Reporter,
00:11and thank you for tuning in to FaceTime with Feinberg,
00:14a THR video...
00:15in which I riff on a topic related to the awards season.
00:20This week, we're talking about box office,
00:22and how, or even if, it will factor into...
00:25to this year's Best Picture Oscar race.
00:27To begin with, let's note that the Oscars telecast is coming off...
00:30its two lowest rated installments ever.
00:32Those are the ceremonies in 2021 and 2021...
00:35which had the Best Picture winners Nomadland and Coda, respectively.
00:40One can chalk up the low viewership of the former
00:42to a pandemic-pared-down ceremony.
00:44And the latter...
00:45to a decrease in award show viewing across the board.
00:48I mean, the Golden Globes are being...
00:50dumped by NBC after their 2023 edition.
00:53And the SAG Awards don't even have a...
00:55broadcasting partner for theirs.
00:56But history has shown that Oscars telecast ratings,
00:59generally speaking...
01:00aren't tied to the hosts, or the presenters,
01:02or anything like that.
01:04Instead, they demand...
01:05demonstrably correlate with the commercial popularity
01:07of the top contenders.
01:0925 years ago...
01:10the Oscars at which Titanic,
01:11at the time the highest-grossing film ever,
01:14won Best Picture...
01:15drew record ratings.
01:16The Oscars the year of Parasite...
01:18a then-record low.
01:19But to voters...
01:20even take any of this into account
01:21when filling out their ballots,
01:22as opposed to just voting for whatever they like.
01:25It certainly doesn't seem like it.
01:26The last movie that was the year's highest grosser
01:28and the Best Picture Oscar winner...
01:30was the Lord of the Rings,
01:31the return of the king,
01:3219 years ago.
01:34In case you need a reminder...
01:35in the Best Picture category in the intervening years...
01:38the highest-grossing film ever not adjusted...
01:40for inflation,
01:40Avatar lost to the Hurt Locker,
01:43that year's lowest-grossing Best Picture...
01:45nominee,
01:45Black Panther lost to Green Book,
01:47and neither Star Wars The Force Awakens...
01:49nor Jurassic Park...
01:50Jurassic World,
01:50nor Avengers Endgame,
01:52nor Spider-Man No Way Home...
01:53were even nominated.
01:55This year, however,
01:56it feels like the gods may be smiling
01:57on the Oscars telecast.
01:59While plenty of...
02:00the presumptive top contenders
02:01have performed unspectacularly
02:03at the box office...
02:04C. Tarr...
02:05women talking,
02:06she said...
02:07and even the Fablemans
02:08from the one-time king
02:09of commercial cinemas...
02:10Steven Spielberg...
02:10this year,
02:11more of the top contenders
02:12than in any recent year...
02:14have actually been.
02:15The Best Picture category
02:16in which 10 films will be nominated
02:18is likely to include...
02:20Top Gun Maverick,
02:21the current highest grosser
02:22both domestically
02:22and internationally
02:23of 2022.
02:25Avatar The Way of Water,
02:26which might surpass it
02:27on both counts.
02:28Elvis,
02:29one of the summer's...
02:30Biggest Draws,
02:30Glass Onion,
02:31and Knives Out Mystery,
02:32which topped the one weekend
02:33when it was in theaters
02:34and is...
02:35likely to find a ton of eyeballs
02:36on Netflix
02:36and everything everywhere
02:38all at once,
02:39which,
02:39with more than...
02:40$100 million in ticket sales
02:41is now $824 highest grosser ever.
02:45Plus,
02:45don't count out
02:45The Woman King,
02:46Black Panther,
02:47Wakanda Forever,
02:48or India's third-largest
02:49blockbuster...
02:50on record...
02:50RRR.
02:51If even just half
02:52of the Best Picture nominees
02:53are big hits like these,
02:55the Oscars could see
02:55a big rating spike.
02:57Even the probability
02:58that the Academy
02:58would ultimately award its...
03:00top price to an art house film
03:01like it usually does,
03:02say,
03:03The Banshees of Inesherin,
03:04would seem...
03:05unlikely to impact
03:05the number of eyeballs
03:06on the Oscars,
03:07since your average Joe and Jane
03:09will already...
03:10have been given
03:10a greater reason
03:11to care about the telecast
03:12than they've had in years.
03:14A rooting interest
03:14and...
03:15mistakenly outcome
03:15if you will,
03:16which means
03:17they'll be tuning in.
03:19That's all for now.
03:20For The Hollywood Reporter,
03:20I'm Scott Feinberg.
03:21Thanks for joining me
03:22on FaceTime with Feinberg.
03:25I'm Scott Feinberg.
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