00:00Who do you think comes out of the conference title games, in your opinion, on Sunday?
00:04So I like the Patriots, and that will not surprise anybody with this beautiful Boston backdrop behind me.
00:10But, you know, I think there are a number of reasons to believe that Drake May, who, by the way, for, you know, anyone that just wants to look at this from a gambling angle,
00:18the guy has never lost as a favorite of at least a field goal in his career.
00:23He is 12-0, and that is straight up, and against the spread, 10-2 at this point, winning those games by an average of 16.5 points per.
00:32This team went 8-0 on the road during the regular season.
00:35Obviously, in these playoffs, hasn't had to go on the road yet.
00:38We know it's difficult to win in Denver, and that's a great home team, and the altitude and the elevation and those factors,
00:44they're certainly well-coached with Sean Payton, just as the Patriots are with Mike Vrabel.
00:48But Jared Stidham is under center for Denver.
00:50You know, I think we'd be having a different, you know, conversation in terms of how close to a pick-em this number is,
00:56if it's Bo Nix under center.
00:57Maybe the Patriots are even slight dogs, but they are overwhelming favorites here,
01:02because it's a guy going against his former team who hasn't thrown an NFL pass since late in 2023.
01:09So, I just don't think that, I realize any given Sunday, anything can happen.
01:14Certainly, Drake May has had issues with turnovers here in the first couple of games going against stellar defenses,
01:20and this Broncos defense, by metric, is a top-five defense full season in the NFL.
01:26But whereas the Chargers top-five and the Texans top-five, it's not all top-fives in my mind are created equal here, Dan,
01:34because this Chargers team, if you watch them, you know, watch what we've seen in the playoffs in that one meeting against the Bills,
01:39late in the regular season, the Jaguars, some of these other steps along the way.
01:43Back half of the year, second half of the year and into the postseason, this team is outside the top ten in defense of EPA.
01:49That defense is a little fraudulent. It's a bit overrated.
01:52So, I don't think the Patriots, honestly, are going to have that much trouble winning this game and advancing to the Super Bowl,
01:58much to the shock of a lot of people who never would have expected that from New England going into this year,
02:03including, yes, of course, Patriots fans.
02:06The other side is far more interesting to me with Seattle playing host to L.A.
02:10These two teams split their regular season meetings.
02:12Both were very close games.
02:14Both required late theatrical dramatic out of the Seahawks.
02:18And what that tells me is that Sean McVay is going to have his team better prepared.
02:23And I actually like the Rams, not only on the money line at plus money, I like them with the points.
02:27If you could have gotten the three, obviously that's more appetizing than the two and a half.
02:32But I still believe in L.A. to win this game.
02:34They should have won the Rams, those two regular season games handedly, both of them.
02:38And they let them slip away late.
02:40One, they survive.
02:41The other one, obviously, they lose in overtime.
02:43But, you know, I think the Rams ultimately are the better team, the more stacked team offensively.
02:49And despite Seattle's tremendous defense, Sam Darnold's not 100%.
02:53We know that as well.
02:54I like the Patriots-Rams round three.
02:57We saw the Patriots win the first two.
02:59See what happens this time around if it gets there.
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