00:00So let's dive right on in. We're gonna look at race 13 for Saturday Gulfstream Park. This is
00:05January the 24th and the number one disco time is undefeated. He's five for five. We really have no
00:11idea how good this guy is because his last couple wins have been by five plus lengths and nine plus
00:17lengths. So I'll give him all the positives. He's a top tier contender. This is definitely gonna be
00:22a tougher field than he's faced though. There are some legitimate horses in here to his outside but
00:26he might be a real monster. Yeah I mean I'm not gonna hold it back. This is my pick.
00:32I love disco time. He's one of the most experienced horses in the race when it comes to number of
00:37starts but like you said undefeated and this race should have a really fast pace but I
00:43expect him to be a part of it. I think that's his probably his preferred running style but he's also
00:48shown he can kind of come from off the pace like he did in the grade through the con
00:51coming from 10 lengths behind in the slop. So you know he only ran twice last year. He's been
00:57off three months coming into this weekend but Brad Cox's trainer has no issues with
01:02horses off of the layoff so I think he's gonna romp it here. Yeah one of the keys for him is that
01:06versatility as you pointed out. He has speed but he's shown us he can sit off and pass horses.
01:11British Isles he only has one race in his career on the dirt that was decent. I just need to see a
01:17little bit more from him. He's been more of a turf horse throughout his career. Yeah I mean he ran
01:22his lifetime fastest race ever last out and that like you said was over the dirt first time in over
01:28two years. He's with a new trainer. He's doing really well. 27% win rate right now but really
01:35not fastest fast enough figures to super contend in here. I could see playing him in the exotics if
01:40you want a price but I don't think he'll win. There's a couple horses in this race Alexa that I think are
01:45really talented but I'm not sure if they want to go a mile and an eighth. It might be a little too
01:49far from them. One of those is full Serrano. We've seen him actually win on the grass at like a mile
01:54and a quarter and he's run some good races going longer. I think he's the best at about a mile. He's
01:58really quick early though. He could be pushing it. I have the same exact notes. I mean he had a light
02:04year last year. Only three outs. I know the connections well. They're very thoughtful when they're
02:08placing their horses so I'm gonna root for him but I agree that he usually when he goes over a mile
02:14kind of fades at the end but doesn't fade like to the back. I mean he still hits the board so I don't
02:20think you should if you're playing exotics within this race definitely include him but it might be
02:25a little bit of a stretch from a distance standpoint. We don't see horses like banishing too much
02:29nowadays. This horse has 13 starts in the last calendar year in the last 12 months and in 11 of
02:36those races he's been in the top three races from six furlongs all the way to a mile and an eighth.
02:41He just finished second at six furlongs. Now he goes to a mile and an eighth. I mean they know
02:46he's a horse that they can just run and run and run and he keeps showing up. He out finished Skippy
02:50Longstocking in the Oak Lawn Handicap. What do you do with him? You know there's an interesting stat
02:55with this horse with the trainer actually. He's kind of an average trainer stat but when you look at
02:59graded stakes he really sticks out. He has a 23% win rate with a $6.23 ROI so he's really good at
03:06having horses you know underdogs ready in these big races. So I think banishing could be an
03:12interesting addition to your ticket. Skippy Longstocking is one of a couple major players
03:17for Safi Joseph Jr. He finished third in this race last year and if you just looked at Skippy
03:22he loves Gulfstream. He loves a mile and an eighth. Sometimes at the top top levels he finishes in some
03:29of the minor awards but this race on paper fits him very well. It's definitely his comfort zone. I
03:35mean a third of his races have been at Gulfstream and half of them have been at this distance so
03:40this is his preferred kind of spot. But you know you said he got third last year. The year before
03:45he ran in this didn't finish the year before that he ran in this and got seventh. He hasn't had like
03:50the best performances in this race and I do think the pace setup is going to be tough for him. There's
03:54just going to be a lot of pace pressure up front so I'm kind of leaving him out. Agree with you
03:58very much on Skippy. Respect him just not sure this is the type of race that sets up all that
04:02well for him. Mattacat Road I kind of feel the same with. He was good early in his career but he
04:08couldn't really win any of the big ones and then they cut him back and shortened him up. Now they're
04:12going to stretch him back out going long. I think he might just be part of the early speed in here
04:16and there might be a lot of company up front. Yeah my issue with him is he's a force who doesn't
04:20like to win. I mean he's one for nine. Bob has him tightened up with a lot of fast work but I just
04:26don't think it's going to be his day. Next up was Tapan Street. This was my buddy earlier in the
04:30year. He was the only horse this year to defeat Sovereignty. So I see I think about that meme
04:35with Wolverine where he's like looking at the sad picture frame. That was kind of Tapan Street last
04:40year as Sovereignty's winning all those big races throughout the year. Here he is Alexa. Wasn't the
04:45most impressive race in his return? Kind of looked like a race that he needed to shake some of the rust off.
04:50Super lightly raced horse with a lot of upside. He only has four races. What do you think about
04:54Tapan Street? He has a lot of upside. He's young, improving, lightly raced but we'll need to see
05:01another improvement. Poster is the next one. Poster Alexa was just behind Skippy Longstocking
05:06so he's going to have to improve on Skippy along with some of the others. He hasn't done a whole lot
05:11wrong in his career. The blinkers come on now. What do you think about Poster? I think the blinkers
05:16coming on is a little strange because he's a horse who likes to close from behind and I do like that he
05:22has kind of an opposing running style in this race because there's a lot of early speed so I think
05:27from that standpoint he's got some upside but for me it's been a disappointing favorite just too many
05:32times. We keep mentioning how there's a good amount of early speed in here. These next two horses could
05:37both be part of that early speed. Captain Cook is coming out of sprint races. He's stretching back out
05:42to races at a mile and an eighth and when he was going a mile and an eighth earlier in his career
05:47he was right on the lead or sitting very close to it so I'd imagine he's going to be pretty close
05:52to the pace in here again. What do you think about Captain Cook? I've always liked this horse because
05:57I actually wanted to buy him in November of 2024 and he was just too expensive for me at $410,000 but
06:02you know since then done great. Hit the board in almost every race. Brutal second place finish by a nose
06:08in the Ellen Jerkins at Saratoga last summer. He's won at this distance before. Lately been running
06:13shorter but I like him here. I'm hoping when I handicapped this I didn't have odds yet and I don't
06:18see the odds on him. It's too small on my screen but I was hoping to get a bit of a price on him.
06:23Yeah he'll be a very fair price for you and it shows you the unlucky few months I've had because
06:27I needed Captain Cook that day. I also needed Mika last time out when Mika ran second by just the
06:33neck at like 14 to 1 and we'll show you Mika here who is another horse who's really quick early on
06:39so I mean he could be pushing the pace early. This is a wicked beat in the cigar mile when he
06:44finishes second by just the neck. He's another one of those horses that could really add to the
06:49pace party up front. Yeah he's gonna want that lead definitely and you're right coming off three
06:53really impressive performances. Won by nine lengths last May. My thing in here like he could definitely
07:01be like a fierce opponent in here. His trainer has really discouraging stats when it comes to graded
07:05stakes with three percent wins so he's not always great at like placing them in these big races
07:10and for that reason I've left him off. We've got the next one White Ibarrio last year's winner.
07:15He's a Breeders' Cup Classic winner. He on paper looks great, looks dominant, looks like the horse to
07:21beat. Off the paper though the concern I have Alexa is he was scratched right before the race in the
07:28Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile and since then we haven't seen him race. He was supposed to run another time,
07:33didn't run. He's had a little bit of like workout issues in the morning. He hasn't always looked like
07:39a 100 percent but I mean if he shows up in the gate and he's ready to run on Saturday he's gonna be
07:43really tough. Yeah I mean if he runs to his best race that we've seen before he'll win but I agree
07:50I think there's too many questions and I think you can fish for a better price in here.
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