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00:00Great to have you with us. Of course, our top story at this hour, yet another blow to France's
00:17political stability. French Prime Minister Sébastien Lacan, whose shock resignation this
00:21morning after less than a month in the job. But another twist, President Emmanuel Macron has
00:27asked him to stay on for two more days, a last ditch effort to broker a deal with party leaders
00:33and avoid further chaos. But with Lacan now the fifth Prime Minister in just two years,
00:39Macron's goal of stability is looking increasingly out of reach. Lacan was appointed in early
00:45September, seen as a bold move to stem the deepening crisis. Well, today that plan obviously
00:51lies in tatters. Speaking earlier, Lacan said conditions were no longer met for him to remain
00:56in office. Take a listen.
01:00The political parties continue to act as if they had an absolute majority in the National
01:08Assembly. Basically, I found myself in a situation where I was ready to compromise, but each political
01:14party wants the other political party to adopt its entire programme.
01:19Let's cross live to France 24's Claire Pacalin, who's standing by for us outside the National
01:27Assembly. Good to have you, Claire. I understand that the National Rally just wrapped up a meeting
01:32there. What came out of that?
01:34Well, we didn't get a statement directly to the press from Marine Le Pen. We actually saw when we were
01:43leaving the National Assembly in the building just behind me, we saw Marine Le Pen from far away,
01:48leaving with her with her team through a kind of side door. So she didn't speak directly to the press,
01:53but Eric Ciutti did. Eric Ciutti, a politician who was in the right wing, the Republican Party, but who last
01:59year joined forces with Marine Le Pen. He came out after that meeting very clearly saying that in
02:06parliament, so that group, that far right group in parliament would not support any future government
02:12named by the future prime minister named by Emmanuel Macron. They would, if there were to be a vote of
02:18confidence in the National Assembly, they would vote against that prime minister and his or her
02:23cabinet. And that's interesting because we have seen in recent months with Francois Bayou's government,
02:29for instance, that the far right did at some times choose not to vote in confidence votes and that
02:36were propping up the government. Not now. The message is very, very clear. We did see that message coming
02:41through earlier on a few weeks ago when Marine Le Pen and Jordan Badella were very clearly saying before
02:46Sébastien Le Corne, who was named prime minister in early September, that they want to see snap
02:51elections. That's very clear what they want. They would like Emmanuel Macron, the French president,
02:54and they are calling on him to hold snap elections. Of course they are because they are doing well in
02:59the polls and they think they have a good chance of getting even more seats in the National Assembly if
03:05snap elections were to be called, if the French president were to dissolve parliament. With that,
03:09we're not getting any indications so far from the Elysee Palace and the presidential palace
03:12that Emmanuel Macron is about to do that. And as you mentioned, Yinka, the French president has
03:17given Sébastien Le Corne, he's asked him to go on for another 48 hours, ultimate negotiations to try
03:23and build some kind of consensus before Wednesday evening. Well, a party that's going to be part of
03:30those negotiations is, of course, the socialists. You were at the HQ earlier today. What was the mood
03:35like there? Well, there was a meeting going on with the top brass of the Socialist Party. And what
03:44was interesting is we got a statement after that from the spokesperson, Pierre Jouvet, he came and
03:48spoke to us. And he said, and this is the Socialist Party's line now, is that they are not calling on
03:54the president to dissolve parliament and hold snap elections. They're not calling on the president to
03:59resign either. They are calling on Emmanuel Macron to name a prime minister from the left. The Socialist
04:06Party, that could also be from the Greens, it could be from Place Publique, it could be from
04:09the communists. But crucially, when Pierre Jouvet, the spokesperson for the Socialist Party, came out
04:16saying that they wanted a left-wing prime minister, they did not mention the far left. They did not
04:22mention La France Insoumise, LFI, the France unbounded party of Jean-Luc Mélenchon. So we are seeing now
04:30the lines, the contours of some kind of alliance on the left, which doesn't at the moment seem to
04:36include LFI, that far left party. And that is a change, of course, we saw last year after Emmanuel
04:43Macron dissolved parliament and we had those snap elections here in France. But the left united across
04:47the board got behind the same manifesto. There was the popular front, this new popular front that emerged
04:54that has since crumbled. And now we are seeing a left that is trying to align itself again. But it looks for
05:02the moment, according to the Socialist Party, that any kind of alliance would be without the far left, without
05:08Jean-Luc Mélenchon's party.
05:10Claire, thanks so much for bringing us up to speed. Claire Placanard, reporting live there outside the national rally
05:16here in Paris. Well, another key party in all of this is, of course, the right-wing Les Républicains.
05:21They've been reacting. Let's listen to what the party's boss, Bruno Retailleux, had to say earlier.
05:28Yesterday, I met with the prime minister for an hour and a half, just moments before the government
05:33lineup was announced. He never told me that Bruno Le Maire would be nominated. He hid it. That's a trust
05:38issue. We were promised a break with a pass and we end up with more of the same. And that includes
05:45Le Maire. I don't know how responsible he is for the trillions of euros of debt, but regardless, he's
05:50associated with it. He symbolises it. It shows a disconnect. They promise change, but nothing at all changes.
05:59Well, we can break this down further. France 24's international affairs editor, Angela Diffley, is in the studio with me.
06:04Hi, Angela. Just lay out for us what Macron's options are now. What's next for him?
06:09Yeah, so we heard a little about that from Claire. He basically has three options. He can nominate a new
06:18prime minister. There is a lot of pressure, as there hasn't been tried so far, to nominate someone from
06:24the left. Macron is extremely resistant to this, not least because of all the things he's done since he
06:32became president. He is, I think, most careful to protect the pro-business reforms he has put in
06:39place. He does not want any socialist government which might damage those. That, I think, is his
06:45primary worry. And he will only, if forced to, end up picking a socialist prime minister. And, of course,
06:52a socialist prime minister is very likely to be toppled. His earlier reasoning and argument was,
06:57I won't pick a socialist because it will be toppled. That has happened with all the other
07:01ministers, the other prime ministers he's chosen. But it's equally likely, and as we've just heard
07:04there, the Rassemblement National on the far right say, we will trigger a dissolution by toppling every
07:10single prime minister that is nominated. He might try to go for a technocratic government. Again,
07:15difficult because it's very hard to find someone in public life who is really apolitical and not
07:21attached to some sort of political leaning. So that might not fly. The other option which he has
07:27ruled out, but there is a growing clamour, and that seemed unthinkable only a short time ago,
07:34is Emmanuel Macron himself should resign. That would be huge. And I think we're still a long way off that
07:42yet. But it is extraordinary that we are so much nearer than we were just a few weeks ago.
07:46And what is looking most likely is that he will be forced to dissolve parliament. And the big
07:53winners, as we heard there from Claire, in that are likely to be the Rassemblement National on the
07:58far right. What is really interesting, a poll came out last week, and a Doxa poll for Le Figaro,
08:05and they said that whereas before a majority of French or a significant majority of French
08:12voted strategically after the first round to block the far right in the second round,
08:19only 46% say they are prepared to now, and 58% would do that to block the far left. So in the second
08:29round, 58% of French voters say they would do anything to block the far left. So that has switched
08:35round. That is a big difference. The other thing is, you know, we now have Trump. Georgia Maloney
08:41is in power in Italy. It looks as though perhaps the electorate are thinking the sky might not fall
08:47in if a far right party was elected to government. Macron himself, it's thought, entertained the idea
08:55in June when he originally dissolved parliament. He thought, look, if they win, they win, they'll
08:59probably make a mess of it. And then they won't be voted in for the presidentials. He took a risk,
09:03it didn't work the way he wanted. We'll see. But the polls show that the priorities of the
09:10French people at the moment are the priorities that do well amongst right-wing parties.
09:16Well, Angela, do stay with us. We also have Hind Zian, who is a consultant and political
09:20strategist. She joins me in the studio. Hi, Hind. Thank you so much for staying with us.
09:25I want to get your reaction to what Angela was just saying. She just very nicely laid out all the
09:29options now facing Macron. You're a political strategist. What's your advice to him now? What
09:35should he do? Oh, I'm not sure I'd want to advise Macron at this point. But yes, there's this first
09:41option, which would be basically another prime minister. But it is not very viable because you
09:47have a political assembly that is split, that is shattered, with each party and each coalition
09:54having its own interests, its own also vision of the future. And it's one of the reasons why
09:59Le Cornu said it was impossible to agree because we have a presidential election in 2027. So if there
10:06is a new prime minister, it's not he's not or she's not going to last for long from either he's like
10:11from a technical government or from the left or the right, because eventually he's going to get
10:16toppled. I remind our viewers that if you want a majority in the French parliament, you need 289 seats.
10:23And today, no coalition has that true majority, which makes it incredibly difficult to govern and
10:31which makes it very likely for each government to fall. So that's the first option, which is
10:36unlikely because unviable, although it is probably the best option for Macron himself. He would think,
10:42well, I'd rather not have a new snap election because probably the national rally is going to
10:48have even bigger numbers. And if I can find somebody who can get all parties to agree,
10:53and that's the sense of what he just asked Le Cornu to do this 48 hour ultimatum, but which is
11:00crazy, because Le Cornu said even if he succeeded in those negotiations, he wouldn't stay. So that's
11:06the first option. The second option is the dissolution, which seems almost highly, it's almost
11:14impossible today for the president to avoid it. If you look at the language of Marine Le Pen and her
11:20party in the national rally of the left, they're probably not going to let him have it his way,
11:26which is just keep going as he can with a, not so great, but a government that can stay with a
11:33certain majority. So the second option of the dissolution seems like something that is very likely,
11:39although we're going to have to say what happens in the next few days. Very likely also because
11:44Marine Le Pen, like what we said earlier, said, well, we're not going to, we are going to veto any
11:51prime minister that is coming today, be it from the left or the right, which is kind of their way of
11:56saying enough. And it is important for them to say that in terms of strategy, because they're also
12:01saying to their electorate, we're the only people today who are reasonable and pragmatic. And if you
12:07vote for us, you're going to find stability. If you vote for them, you're going to find chaos because
12:12they're the only ones to say enough with this joke, we're going to have to find a solution.
12:16And the third option, which is the most unlikely, but honestly, the only option everybody in private
12:22has been talking about since the dissolution in the summer of 2024, it is the resignation of the
12:29president. Why is it important? Actually, the dissolution is also important for the same reason.
12:34What is the crisis today in French politics? It's a question of legitimacy. You don't have
12:39enough seats to govern. And by legitimacy, I mean simply having enough people who are willing to vote
12:45for you in parliament. And how do you get those people? By votes. So it means if you want to get
12:50out of this solution, of this crisis, you're going to have either to have a dissolution, which means
12:56that you're going to have new elections and hopefully a party or a coalition that is going to have
13:02the absolute majority, which is 289. Today, no party has that and not even close. No coalition
13:08has that. But Marine Le Pen, which is unprecedented in our history, the national rally, Marine Le Pen's
13:16national rally has 140 seats, 130, which is the biggest force today in National Assembly alone
13:24without being a coalition. So you either have that or you have a new presidential election.
13:29What's going to happen? Presidential election, which means a president is going to be elected
13:33with a strong majority. And a few weeks after that, you're going to have his parliament, which
13:38is, of course, going to be elected with a strong majority because the French people want to give
13:43their president a strong government to govern. So that's basically the rationale behind all of this.
13:48I would say the less likely, but also the solution that could fix all these problems is basically a snap
13:55presidential election, which is going to just wipe off all those issues and say, OK, we're going to start
14:01with a new page and we're going to have a new president, a new majority, and that president is going to be able to
14:06govern because he's going to have more than 289 seats in government.
14:09Yeah. And it is interesting. You know, you're talking about the presidency. And, you know, Macron giving this extra 48 hours
14:15to, I don't know, conjure up some sort of miracle, you know, what could he possibly achieve that hasn't
14:22already been discussed in the numerous consultations he's had. The key feature which
14:28really colours politics in France is the fact that the presidency is the supreme prize. It is the job that
14:36everybody wants. And the problem is that this is individual personalities who might not want to join
14:44any government because they do not want to be associated with Emmanuel Macron because he is seen
14:49as doomed. And they are looking at their own presidential bids. And there are numerous people
14:55in each party who are prioritising their own personal ambitions. You know, this is politics. These are human
15:02beings. They're driven by ambition. And it does look, as very many of them are prioritising their
15:07own personal ambitions, their personal political trajectories above the short term well-being of
15:15the country. Well, and can we say that there's a level of, I've spoken to many guests on this show
15:21about the political crisis. Some have said there's an immaturity amongst the political parties, that
15:26they're not, you know, being serious and sort of taking in the weight of the situation. Do you think
15:32that's the case? Could they be making more compromises here?
15:36So there is, there is ambition, of course, and you're like two years from an extremely important
15:41election. And we live in a country in France, and the French political history is such that the
15:48de Gaulle, the founding father of this republic, sought to give this country a strong presidential power,
15:55because what we had before was a strong parliament, and it didn't work out so well, because it was
16:01toppled. And what we said a little bit earlier, we had like, something like around 12 governments in
16:07just one republic, or around 20 governments. So because in our history, we had a lot of parliamentary
16:13instability, there was no trust when this republic was founded in 1958, that parliament was going to do
16:22better. So we said, okay, we're going to give real power to the president. And why did the first,
16:27our first president, Génard de Gaulle, in 62, decided the president would have the power of being,
16:33the honor of being elected directly by the people? It is because he's supposed to have the utmost
16:39legitimacy. Like he was supposed, he is supposed to be, which is not less the case since the five
16:45year, we went from seven years to five years of, of the political mandate, he's supposed to be sort
16:51of the referee of our political, political, political game, general game that we have political system.
16:59So there is this ambition, but there's also something that is related, probably to values,
17:05if you are from the left, and you see a government from the right, that is elected, and they are not in
17:12line with basic values that your electorate agrees with, it's very hard for you to commit. Same for
17:20the right, if you see in government people who are like for ending the pensions reform, and for you it
17:28is important, because you know that this country needs actual reform to face its debt, then you can't
17:35support that government, because you can't explain it, explain that to your electorate, but also you can't
17:41yourself, if you've been a politician for some time, you believe in what you've been doing, you can't
17:46morally do that, because it's not in line with what you do. So that's the, the, that's the trap of
17:52partisanship in French politics, you get it at a point where you don't have a figure that is capable of
17:58saying, we need to do what's best for the country, even if you have, you know, partisan ideals and
18:04partisan ideology, and it brings sort of a stop, like a break in the way this country is governed,
18:13and we are living a really serious crisis in this country, this is more than just a few, a few people
18:19who don't agree, but I don't think the solution is coalitions, because here again, I'm being very
18:25lucid and pragmatic, this country does not have a coalition tradition, we're very different from other
18:31European countries. However, I believe the solution is going back to the will of the people having
18:36elections, and making sure there's a majority. And once we have a majority, then things can be solved.
18:42Well, we'll see if Macron does consider that dissolution or not. Hind, thank you so much for
18:46staying with us and breaking down the situation for us. Angela, many thanks to you as well for that
18:51piece of analysis that you have been giving us.
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