- 7 weeks ago
Mike Schopp and Chris "Bulldog" Parker are joined by Joe Ostrowski
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00:00here joined on the western hotline by venerable sports betting analyst joe ostrowski he's known
00:06for his daring and often successful futures bets also youth baseball and joe is the co-host of
00:15chicken dinner with sam penny out of it who joins us on fridays of course joe how's life
00:18yeah already drama in the youth baseball front but we will not discuss that less than uh days
00:24before our first practice but who the hell cares we finally made it fellas we're here these next
00:29five days starting tonight are going to be awesome college football tonight that's right i'm guessing
00:35you don't mean sabers rangers sabers having won 11 of 12 that's on tv too it's on the screen good job
00:40there i think that was not on it was not in your intro don't think about hockey was mentioned in
00:46your i just said a lot of sports tonight you you you went and ran with it well lay it out for us joe i
00:52mean tonight is uh the semi-finals for starters yeah yeah and the uh the college football front
00:58it's it's an odd situation uh i don't know if you guys watched that georgia ole miss game last week
01:04with with the holiday time and all that i did i did that was awesome was it not a i mean chambliss
01:11just the way he gets out of trouble that's what i think this game is going to boil down to uh the big
01:16strength for the canes and they showed it against ohio state is up front that they dominate the
01:22trenches and you know we were on miami both myself and sam but i was kind of kicking myself afterwards i'm
01:27like why didn't it hit me that miami's winning this game because the the big weakness going into
01:33that was the offensive line for the buckeyes and that's the big strength on the other side
01:38uh for the canes so are they going to be able to corral chambliss it just felt like miracle play
01:43after miracle play one interesting angle with this one with the old miss i mean it's just such an odd
01:49situation when you have a head coach leave now you have the interim guy and then the offensive
01:55mastermind that left came back after the fans were swearing at him as he's getting on the plane
02:01and then they win a couple of playoff games but those first two playoff games against opponents they
02:07saw in the regular season so now it's going to be a little bit different uh against miami uh
02:14ole miss is fun it's a great story they're the long shot now they're six to one uh for the title
02:20islands miami the favorite it's down to three so you are getting some quote smart money on the
02:27ole miss side but but i do like miami to win and cover this game and they have the coaches that
02:32coach the georgia game are there the thing i didn't pay i didn't pay attention since that game ended
02:38but during that game the ole miss georgia game there was just a lot of talk about how the a lot of that
02:45staff with the there was a big lsu like recruiting weekend and hosting guys and that they were going
02:51to be maybe compelled to be there that kiffin would want them to be there but they still have most of
02:58that staff that is in place at ole miss right they do yes they do but it's also weird because if you
03:06talk you hear the interim coach talk and he's asked about the offense it's kind of like they're
03:12they're on different teams right now right it's very weird yeah i don't really know what's going
03:18on with the offense i just hope they score a lot of points right it's odd but yeah the blue bloods
03:23are out guys i don't know this if this is going to be a good thing as far as excitement ratings you
03:28know in my world the the betting handle and all that does it feel like the same excitement i i think
03:35it's cool because we got into a rut where in college football is the same teams year after year
03:39i have to be honest with it being game day i don't know that there's the same buzz had in ohio state
03:45bama georgia made it this is what happens in the final four yeah we love our upsets and then we get
03:51to the final four and it's george mason and like who right so it's a little bit like that i had miami
03:57to win last week after talking to you joe so uh right thank you for that that was pretty good odds
04:03and tomorrow we get oregon indiana um two states two of the states uh any any quick thoughts on that
04:10before we we move on to wild card weekend joe yeah i'll keep it shorter here i'm sam will have a lot
04:16on uh this one tomorrow it's it's his favorite play of the cfp uh with you guys here but yeah you're
04:23going to have a big 10 team we saw this matchup during the season and in that game it was a tie game
04:30middle of the fourth quarter and i think it's going to be a similar situation feels like it's
04:35gotten out of hand with uh with indiana like they're talked about as they are unbeatable they
04:41have no weakness offense defense the coaching discipline all of that um i i don't agree with
04:48that i think oregon can hang in this game they can pull off the upset i'm going to be on the oregon
04:53side pretty cool to get two of the i don't know the top two quarterbacks maybe two both top five picks
04:59at worst top two top two maybe even right yeah that's that's pretty hot two in odds yeah mendoza's
05:04the favorite to go to the raiders and the second favorite is more if he comes out right that's that'll
05:10be the question for him that's the jets if he wants it it's a question it's a question yeah um
05:17okay so bill's jaguars joe bill's favored by a point and a half i hope you saw this incredible
05:24jacksonville stat about their history when the total is 49 or higher they are one in 25 and
05:33their one was the first of these games in 1999 they have lost 25 straight games where the total
05:39was 49 or higher most of which were games they were underdogs and they haven't been good very often
05:43um i'm not sure it means anything to this game but it's an incredible stat bills minus one and a
05:49half and 52 speaking uh to that total the one thing that comes keeps popping up to me uh with
05:56liam cohen being the guy naturally a lot of people talk about the offense and trevor lawrence it was
06:02we're in the midway point people are having real conversations oh he's got to move on from trevor
06:06lawrence he's not the guy he's going to handpick his own guy and look at where we are right now with
06:11this uh eight game winning streak and what they've done now not the most challenging schedule but
06:16to win eight in a row in this league still a tough thing to do and a couple of impressive wins
06:20in there uh everything points to the jacksonville defense for me early in the season it felt like
06:26a lot of this was turnover based or that's what people were thinking and then as the season played
06:31out in full i think we can walk away and say no this this is actually a legitimate defense so that
06:38stout rushing defense how do they do against cook and allen on the ground um that's where i come with
06:46this game it's just everything points to what are they able to do now if i'm going to oversimplify it
06:52i look at josh allen even though there have been some struggles on the road it's a pick them am i
06:59going to go against the best quarterback in this playoff in a pick them scenario no i'm not but i i
07:06can't sit here and honestly tell you that i have the most confidence in the world i think it's a pick
07:10them for a reason and just the way the afc is set up i think it's unfortunate that this is the the
07:17bills first opponent because i see the winner of this game making a deep run that's how bulldog feels
07:23well yeah yeah ross tucker said the same thing to us on tuesday um and yeah and i was feeling like
07:30for weeks here really after you mentioned you know not the hardest schedule but they did a number on
07:36denver before the holidays and that was the those two days after that were the last two days i worked
07:42until after new year's and that really put a you know put a put a scare in me seeing them do that to
07:49denver so i was thinking all along that's the team i least want to see is jacksonville because of a lot
07:56of the points you made the run defense has been so good all year long but i'm reminded as this week
08:01has gone on i mean there was nowhere near a pick them last year when denver came here the bills were
08:06huge favorites um and it turned out rightly so but there was a lot of talk about denver's defense
08:12overall and their run defense and the bills just chewed them up so you know we'll see you know like
08:19maybe jacksonville's had and undeniably they've had an excellent run defense all year but maybe they
08:24ain't seen this yet you know yeah for sure am i going to pick the elite offense or to this point
08:30the elite defense uh in this scenario i'm gonna i'm gonna take the elite offense that's that's just
08:37where i'm at that's where it comes down to with this game and plus i can't you know be consoling
08:42sam for the next few months sam has so much money invested in bills futures you know it's kind of
08:48been fun listening to you guys through the year through the football season and then talking to you
08:52and there have been times when i'm tuning in to see like what your angle is on a bills game
08:57and you're often asking us how we feel about different games through the course of the season
09:01survivor bets whatever it is and i think maybe i would say your shows have been more optimistic than
09:09ours about them i mean we're doing these road hits you know and it sort of feel like you're invited on
09:17shows to rep the bills and i go on and like i don't know i don't really trust this that much it's
09:23more of an alan is the whole team team than i think it's ever been so sure i mean if it's a
09:28it reminds me of last year joe when we would talk in the playoffs and are you really gonna or is this
09:33two years ago or both are you really gonna bet against mahomes you really do you really want to
09:37do that are you sure he's getting points are you sure and this is a little bit the same with alan
09:43are you sure you want trevor lawrence in the gunfight over josh allen are you sure about that think
09:47about it before you do it right right you know you got to play this out like we've we've talked
09:52about it as well and it's funny we were uh just like an hour ago we were talking to westgate super
09:58books uh john murray about where the money's coming in he's oh it's all jaguars bets all jaguars bets
10:03but that's early in the week and that's usually sharper money and then we talk to somebody else they're
10:09like oh bills are the public side there's no doubt about it the bookmakers i talk to i think it's
10:14going to be very balanced uh where people stand on this game uh coming into it but uh yeah man i'm
10:21looking forward to it there are two it feels like primo games but i and i'm sure you guys have
10:27discussed it this week well it is a coin flip for a reason if it goes the other way is there going to
10:35be a ninth coach right i mean we talked about how it's set up without mahomes without lamar and
10:43what continues to happen it feels like something big has to happen if they lose the first playoff
10:49game in this spot well i've bulldog has said the same thing i i think maybe it's more the gm who's
10:55on the line if they lose than the coach but i have no idea i've never i mean it's the time of year
11:01where everybody's reporting and speculating and i haven't heard a word about with mike tomlin it was
11:07every minute you would hear like oh i better win and even now it's still possible it sounds like it's
11:11still possible that there be a change yeah that's double the tenure of mcdermott but so was harbaugh
11:16and that happened and around here it's uh lefleur yeah a lot yeah how about that that's because
11:23like at least you've got jay glazer on that right like he i feel like that's the that's everyone i
11:30think i don't say i don't speak for everyone but like he carries a lot of weight i think and he
11:35included lefleur in like a not sure column like last week on pregame shows and i've not heard
11:43anyone other it's just speculation about mcdermott it's really just adding up you know looking at the
11:48ledger and just adding it up he's been there a long time they've not gotten over the hump there's
11:53all this pressure that's largely being created from outside about how they have to get there this time
11:59because of noma holmes and jackson but i don't think there's a sniff of it around the bills i think
12:05it's just all circumstantial um but if at least lefleur you've got jay glazer sort of saying like
12:12there's maybe some question there and i would respect that more than just throwing darts about
12:16mcdermott myself yeah seems right joe um packers bears it's pretty hot yeah they just played twice
12:27in december now we get a third time in a very short period of time and if you look at how those
12:33games played out well the one in lambeau field week 14 it came down to the very end uh the packers
12:39dominated the first half bears dominated the second half uh caleb williams has a chance to tie the
12:44game maybe they go for two there if they convert throws a pick into the end zone has not thrown many
12:49interceptions on the year um and then a couple weeks later in week 16 here in chicago
12:56crazy finish bears are down by 10 two minutes ago and they somehow win in overtime on a 46 yard pass
13:03to dj moore there was a covered onside kick just a wild finish guys the last five team five times
13:09these two teams have played one score games it always seems to come down uh to the very end and a
13:15lot of uh bears fans are certainly surprised at how far they've come being the two seed uh this season
13:20bears can't start slow again it's been constant starting slow having to recover they keep covering
13:27the point spread in the second half you know caleb williams down we've talked about it so many times
13:33in the final two minutes and then he comes out on the right side well the last uh couple of weeks
13:38it has not worked out that way lose by a full goal to the lions losing a high scoring affair uh to san
13:43francisco on sunday night football a couple weeks ago but that's that's kind of what happens uh what i find
13:49interesting and you could bring this up with a few games is you've got three quarterbacks making
13:54their debut in the postseason caleb may with new england and bryce young with carolina historically
14:01those quarterbacks don't do very well but if you look more recent and i you know we wonder if this
14:08the newer quarterback where they don't give into the pressure they're not as impacted by maybe something
14:13they've been dealing with their entire lives the number they're about 500 in their first uh
14:19first playoff game so i wonder if it's a big deal i don't think caleb is going to be impacted he's
14:24facing a defense that he just saw twice and now you're facing them without michael parsons the packers
14:30getting healthier love first game off the concussion jacobs is good to go it looks like zach tom the right
14:36tackle is going to be healthy uh green bay is looking good i think it's going to come down to the very end
14:41again if you're forcing me to make a pick i would say all right i think i think it's going to be
14:47green bay but it's probably going to come down to the very last possession of the game uh i i do think
14:52it's higher scoring in the second half we'll see if wind ends up being a factor but uh on the bear
14:57side of things loveland is really come on guys so uh props wise i'm looking at at him his number's 40
15:03and a half keep that in mind for our uh fantasy build tomorrow when we when we speak loveland will be
15:09interesting tight ends really interesting this year you'll get one guy per team and we need one
15:14tight end at least we can pick up to five if we want but okay loveland is going to be popular i wonder
15:19what kincaid might be if he gets the clean bill of health we will see joe thanks for today good luck
15:26this weekend enjoy it thanks guys best of luck to you as well and we'll talk next week joe ostrowski
15:32chicken dinner with sam penny ottovich check it out on youtube or wherever you get your podcasts
15:38American it's very nice
15:42Waltz
15:44so
15:46cool
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15:50cool
15:54well
15:57mobility
15:57cool
15:58cool
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