2026 Outlook For Dealmaking

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00:00Why with such momentum should be expected to continue? Are the deals not all done at this point?

00:06Yeah, I think that's a fair point. At least when we're hearing, when we're talking to CFOs, when we're talking to advisors,

00:12they're saying to us that actually what we've seen in recent weeks, so in the past two, three months,

00:17is something that should continue in the coming year, driven by, for example, companies' need for AI investments.

00:23So looking to add on this important technology to their businesses, as well as the softer regulatory stance here in the U.S.

00:32with regards to dealmaking. We've seen less deals challenged by the FTC and DOJ, plus also the prospect of lower financing costs.

00:40So there's, I think, a range of factors that could drive dealmaking.

00:44Of course, it's always tricky at the end of the year to be talking about next year, as we all know,

00:49and advisors also like to talk their book. But I feel as if talking to CFOs, that's certainly the sense that I'm getting.

00:55There's more to come for next year.

00:57And geopolitics, which some expected would hinder dealmaking this year, didn't really do much to deter that.

01:02Why do you think that was the case?

01:04We certainly had this expectation going into this year that because of tariffs, because of Trump, because of trade,

01:11that basically there wouldn't be much in terms of cross-border dealmaking.

01:16We didn't necessarily see that. We did actually see some deals come through specifically because of geopolitics.

01:22So, for example, in France, Thales, Airbus, and Leonardo, they decided to merge their satellite businesses,

01:29specifically with a reference of saying, hey, we need to be a stronger player against U.S. competitors.

01:34So, it, of course, remains to be seen as to what happens next year.

01:40Trade is a bit of a wild card, but it hasn't necessarily been the derailleur of deals that we expected it would.

01:47Yeah, and I got the function wrong earlier. I said deal go. It's actually IPO go.

01:51You can get all your deals off that as well.

01:53And if you look at North America, you know, we think of all the, I don't know, the AI deals and the partnerships

01:59and the licensing agreements and so on, but there were so many others.

02:01Like you say, there was the railroad deal, there was Foot Locker and Dick's Sporting Goods and so on.

02:06Is it valuation that decides it now? Is it companies that are getting into trouble, maybe?

02:11It's a mixture of things.

02:13Of course, valuations have come down from their highs that we saw in 21 and in 22.

02:18They're up from last year, so it's not as if they've fallen from there, but valuation, of course, is a consideration.

02:25Plus also this question that as to whether companies feel as if they're well positioned with what they have in terms of their portfolio.

02:32And I think there are still companies are looking at the current environment and saying, some of them are saying, it's actually time to do deals.

02:39And I think even if we were to go into a slower environment next year, like some have been talking about a potential recession,

02:47we don't necessarily know if that's going to come or not.

02:49But what I'm hearing very much is also that that might not stop dealmaking.

02:53Because, of course, if you're facing a weaker economy, it might be that some of your competitors might not be doing well anymore.

03:00And it's a good opportunity to buy.

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