Wolfgang Ischinger, Chairman of the Munich Security Conference, warns ending the Ukraine war would just be the start of Europe's peace efforts. He also told DW the new US security strategy poses an "ideological challenge."
00:00The time for action is now, said NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutter in a speech in Berlin on the alliance's top priorities.
00:09He called on Europeans to keep supporting Ukraine, but he also criticised many of them for still being too complacent.
00:17And he called on the Europeans to defend the European way of life.
00:21Now, his speech comes at a crucial point in time for transatlantic relations, just days after the US published its new national security strategy.
00:30And I had the opportunity to discuss this document and other issues with one of Germany's top security experts and Mark Rutter's host here in Berlin, Ambassador Wolfgang Ishinger.
00:42Ambassador Ishinger, thank you very much for joining us.
00:45You spoke to Mark Rutter on stage just now and asked him how close we are to seeing Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine end before Christmas.
00:54How satisfied were you with his answer to that question?
00:57Well, I have actually tended to believe for many, many months that I had not ever seen any sign of a willingness to compromise by the Russian side,
01:10which is why I've belonged to the school of skeptics about an early end to this war.
01:16But I have to admit, I'm listening not only to Mark Rutter, I'm listening to what Chancellor Merz had to say, what Americans are saying.
01:27We do see a very intense diplomacy going on today, yesterday, in coming days, this coming weekend.
01:36In other words, maybe this intense movement will actually produce some solution to the really crucial question.
01:48Actually, I think there are two crucial questions.
01:52The one is the territorial question.
01:54In a question of war and peace, that's always a fundamental question.
01:59What about territory?
02:00What belongs to whom, etc.?
02:01Who gets what?
02:03The other question is, of course, the really quite intractable question of security guarantees.
02:08And we know, I think we do know, that security guarantees that somebody puts on paper are probably worth the paper they're written on, but not much more.
02:20In other words, how do you fill that with meaning, with value for those who wish to be protected by that security guarantee?
02:30And let's just assume that some sort of a deal is agreed, because we all know that Donald Trump has a very big interest.
02:36There are lots of people who are saying we need Donald Trump to have this victory as well, very influential figures.
02:44Let's just assume that a deal is made.
02:47Just how fragile is that European unity then, if the impression then gets spread across Europe, that war in Ukraine is over?
03:02Margretus spoke of the risk of too many Europeans still too complacent.
03:07He said, we are Putin's next target, but many are complacent.
03:12Isn't there, as cynical as that may sound, that risk, if there is a ceasefire in Ukraine?
03:17Oh, absolutely.
03:17I would be the first to agree.
03:19In fact, I would even go a step further.
03:21As long as this may sound overly cynical, so beware, but as long as this war is being fought, you know, vigilantly and courageously by our Ukrainian friends,
03:38Europe is safe, because the Ukrainians have successfully tied down this mighty Russian army for years now in an incredibly sustained fight defending their own country.
03:57The moment this war ends, the moment weapons are silent in Donbass, etc., and over Ukraine, Russia will have all the time, you know, Russia stretches over 10 or 11 time zones.
04:15They will have all the time in the world to regroup, to rebuild, to spend even more money.
04:22In other words, we need not only be clear that once this war ends, our effort to become capable of defending Europe doesn't end.
04:40It actually starts seriously then.
04:44So far, the Ukrainians carry the burden.
04:47Once the war ends, we will have to carry a much larger share of that burden.
04:53In other words, I would go even a step further than Mark Rutte has just put it very brilliantly.
04:59You say Mark Rutte has put it brilliantly.
05:02I just wonder whether, isn't there an inherent risk if the focus is so much on Russia, Russia, Vladimir Putin as the big threat to get the Europeans to do more for their own security?
05:13My impression was that there was very little focus on the threats coming from the U.S. administration, or would you disagree?
05:21Well, I think that is a very different kind of challenge.
05:25The challenge that we are facing from the United States is not really a security challenge.
05:31As the Secretary General correctly put it, this security strategy document says specifically and repeatedly that Europe is important for the United States.
05:45And it does not speak, doesn't even mention, the possibility of the U.S. leaving NATO.
05:52I mean, these were questions intensely debated even during the first Trump administration, if you recall.
05:59So, what we are currently facing is more an ideological challenge by certain elements, now represented in the Trump administration,
06:11who would rather see a bunch of European countries separate and national and sharing the, can I call it that, the MAGA ideology,
06:23you know, clamping down on migration, upholding more traditional, so-called more traditional values.
06:35I find it, you know, interesting, almost funny that the reaction from Russia was, these are our values.
06:43Yes, I think that is a fundamental misunderstanding, but it tells us how confusing and how confused some of the minds are and how confused the discussion is.
06:57I think that if the MAGA movement that supports Trump so much, if they believe that parties like the German AfD, for example,
07:11are their perfect partners because they share some of these societal values, maybe they have not yet sufficiently looked at the fact that the AfD party is surely not a pro-American party.
07:27It has a history of being rather anti-American and pro-Russian.
07:33So, if I were an American advisor, I would say, beware of the AfD, not our friend.
07:39But this needs to be cleared up.
07:41In other words, we have quite a struggle in front of us to deal with this question of what kind of society are we interested in having.
07:52And I think that we have very, very good arguments in Europe to defend our idea of Europe.
07:59We have every reason to remind Americans that the idea of Europe was to make sure that the United States would not ever again be called into military action
08:14to end a conflict between members of what is now the European community or the European Union.
08:23In other words, the European Union was not built, as Donald Trump has put it, to do damage to the economic interests of the United States.
08:35That's the founding principle of the European Union, and that is, I think, what we need to uphold, is that the European Union has a mission to make sure that the United States does not need to intervene once again,
08:50which is what they had to do in World War I, what they had to do in World War II.
08:54And so many hundreds of thousands of American lives were lost for that purpose.
08:59Never again.
09:01I would like to ask you about the discussion around nuclear protection for Germany.
09:08Because, of course, at the moment it's not legal for Germany to own their own nuclear weapons.
09:13Do you think that we are going to get such a discussion whether Germany should have access to its own nuclear weapons, given everything that's going on?
09:23I think that would be a foolish discussion.
09:27I'm against it.
09:27I've always been against it.
09:29And I don't think we need it.
09:31We have, and we continue to have, even if there are some doubts about the, you know, America's role in NATO, etc.
09:40As we speak, there are American nuclear weapons in Germany and in other countries.
09:45As we speak, Germany has just ordered modern F-35 airplanes a couple of years ago, which will be delivered in coming months or years.
09:56As we speak, there are still tens of thousands of U.S. troops in Germany and certainly in other European countries, adding up to more than 80,000 currently.
10:07In other words, I see at this moment no desire, no plan and no concern about the United States really abandoning this role.
10:21And quite frankly, I have been an advocate for a long time of responding to the American question of why can't you guys do more about your own defense?
10:33I've been an advocate of responding positively to Emmanuel Macron's offer to discuss with his European allies, including first and foremost Germany, whether there is a possibility and if so, to what extent and how of using the French nuclear component to protect not only the territory of France, but in a larger sense, the European space.
11:02I think it's in this direction that our discussion should go.
11:07We have one nuclear-capable member country in the EU and we certainly have a very strong nuclear-capable country among the European members of NATO.
11:20That's the United Kingdom.
11:21In other words, we have plenty of nuclear weapons that can be used for the purpose of making sure that not only France and the UK are adequately protected, but that Europe is better protected.
11:35And I think that's where I would start working with France, with the United Kingdom and certainly to make sure that the United States will stay there.
11:43Then we don't need a German nuclear weapon.
11:46Look, the idea of preventing further proliferation around the world is a very important idea.
11:55And if a country like Germany, with our history and with our size, if we start, you know, even thinking about acquiring nuclear weapons, why would anyone think that the Saudis and many other countries around the world would not then also want to follow suit and acquire nuclear weapons?
12:19That would be the end of nuclear non-proliferation.
12:23So I think we need to demonstrate that we are good global citizens and that we're not in the business of acquiring nuclear weapons of our own, but that we are interested in having adequate protection by our friends and allies.
12:37And I think that can be done.
12:39And just one very last question that is a optimist, pessimist sort of a question.
12:46What's the status of the Transatlantic Alliance?
12:49Well, you know, quite frankly, I've been engaged in transatlantic issues now for practically 50 years.
12:58I've seen ups and downs.
13:01This is not an up moment.
13:04This is a difficult moment, surely.
13:07And I don't think that this difficult moment will end before the end of the Trump presidency.
13:14We will have, we will have continued friction, but that is the art of diplomacy, how to make sure that even if we have major differences of view, to make sure that on the principles, on the fundamentals, we are still aligned and we're together.
13:31And that there will be a continued deterrence effect to the other guys, those whom we want to keep from starting yet another, you know, aggressive adventure in the East or in Central or in the South of Europe.
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