How close is Russia and Ukraine to a peace deal — and what stands in the way? - video Dailymotion

CGTN Europe

CGTN Europe discussed this with Samuel Ramani, Associate Fellow at RUSI

Transcript

00:00Let's get more now with Samuel Romani, an Associate Fellow at the Russi Think Tank.

00:04Samuel, welcome back. Good to have you with us.

00:06Now, you're currently in Doha, aren't you, at the Peace Forum there.

00:10What's the general sense of the current situation in Ukraine

00:13after the American Special Envoy Keith Kellogg said that a deal was close?

00:18Well, I mean, I think the general view is that there's a division, obviously, of opinion here

00:22between the Western delegations and the Global South delegations.

00:25The Global South delegations are much more open to concessions towards Russia,

00:29whereas most of the European ones are pretty recalcitrant.

00:32In general, it seems as if the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station area could be resolved,

00:39but the Donetsk territory one is going to be really hard

00:42because Ukraine doesn't want to give up territory that it currently has,

00:45including the cities like Slovyansk and Krematorsk.

00:47Now, Zaporizhzhia was hit yesterday, and there were more strikes on Ukraine overnight.

00:53How much is that undermining these talks?

00:55Well, Russia is basically using these talks and these attacks on electrical infrastructure

01:00to basically try to make Ukraine submit to its will.

01:04So basically trying to break Ukrainian resolve, weaponize winter, make it as hard as possible,

01:08make Ukraine feel like the war is unwinnable and there's no way forward,

01:11so they have to kind of surrender and give up territory.

01:14I also think that we should tie whatever Russia is doing in Kharkiv to these strikes, too.

01:18So it's not so strategically significant because Kharkiv is unlikely to fall,

01:23but the fact that they've gotten something in the Kupiansk-Volchansk area,

01:28even if it's a little bit less than what the Russians have claimed,

01:30gives them bargaining power to trade that territory for Donetsk, too.

01:34So these strikes and that offensive all play into the broader Russian strategy

01:37of trying to convince the Ukrainians that resistance is futile

01:40and you have to end the war now or things will only get worse.

01:42What impact, then, would you say that President Zelensky's meeting here in London tomorrow

01:48with the British, the French, and the German leaders will have on the direction of the peace talks?

01:54Well, I mean, I think it's going to be a reaffirmation of support, obviously,

01:57but the buck really stops with the United States.

02:00It seems as if the U.S. did incorporate some wishes coming from Europe

02:04after the U.S.-Ukraine dialogue that was held,

02:06after Budanov, the head of military intelligence in Ukraine,

02:09engaged Dan Driscoll, the army secretary in Abu Dhabi.

02:12There's a 19-point plan now, but the Russians say that that 19-point plan is basically futile.

02:17And when Woodcoff and Kushner went to visit Putin,

02:19it was pretty clear from that meeting that they were wanting to go back

02:22to the original 28-point plan and perhaps even more than that.

02:26So the Europeans will offer Ukraine support,

02:28but whether the Europeans can actually influence U.S. thinking in their direction,

02:32it's unclear right now because Trump wants a deal as soon as possible

02:35and the Russians are resisting any kind of European involvement in this peace process

02:39because they'll weaken their position.

02:41And Samuel, despite the war and the sanctions on Russia,

02:45President Putin continues to appear on the world stage.

02:48Just how resilient is his international influence now

02:50and what does it signal about his leverage in these negotiations?

02:54Well, in the decade before the war on Ukraine and really maybe the eight years,

03:00like after the annexation of Crimea in 2014,

03:03Putin was really trying to work to divide the global south from the west

03:06through concerted diplomatic outreaches to countries in Africa and Latin America,

03:12to the military intervention in Syria, which changed their position in the Middle East,

03:15and also the expansion of trade and security ties with China and India.

03:20And in 2022, we saw the divide very clearly.

03:23The west condemned the invasion of Ukraine and sanctioned Russia.

03:26The non-west didn't necessarily support Russia's invasion, but also didn't isolate it.

03:30And over the past three to four years, in spite of U.S. secondary sanctions pressure,

03:34in spite of all the moral critiques that the west has leveled against Russia,

03:38Russia's influence in the global south has remained resilient

03:42and they have the economic and trade volumes as well as the military supply chains to continue the war.

03:47So I think that Putin is in a position where he's isolated from the west,

03:51but still considered to be a normal part of the international community from the rest of the world,

03:56much to the chagrin of most western leaders.

03:59Samuel Romani, Associate Fellow at the Russi Think Tank,

04:01thank you so much for sharing your insights with us today.

How close is Russia and Ukraine to a peace deal — and what stands in the way?

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