Will Russia Accept a Peace Deal With Ukraine?

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00:00We've heard President Zelensky, you know, presumably feeling very supported by his European allies.

00:07Russia insists we're going to give up territory, but we won't.

00:10And when Washington hears that, they're just going to think we're back to square one, aren't they?

00:15I think, Tom, we're in a negotiating phase now.

00:18I mean, we're not seeing the end of the game.

00:20And so everybody is obviously playing tough.

00:23They're going for maximalist demands at this stage.

00:26And it's the erosion of those maximalist demands that will result in some sort of peace.

00:32Now, the big worry for Europeans right now is that you might get an armistice or a peace with Russia at the moment.

00:39But actually, Russia will just come back a year later when it's recovered, it's refreshed its armaments, and it's actually got more manpower.

00:46And everybody sees echoes of what happened in Europe just before the Second World War,

00:50when Hitler basically did exactly the same, said he wanted a bit of Czechoslovakia.

00:55He was given a bit of Czechoslovakia and returned for peace because the rest of Europe wasn't ready to take on Germany at the time.

01:03And then nine months later, he marched into the rest of Czechoslovakia.

01:07And so that image is in European leaders' minds at the moment.

01:11At the same time, Europe's not ready to fight Russia if Russia decides to actually widen the conflict,

01:17or indeed, of course, refuses to recognize the legitimacy of the peace process if Zelensky remains in power.

01:24Some of the rhetoric right now is suggesting that Russia doesn't want Zelensky to stay in power beyond any peace settlement.

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