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The Meyers Report 5-9-2025 Fast 15
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00:00And instead of using chemicals to kill weeds, they're using basically blow torches to go
00:07identify and find a weed and burn it.
00:15Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Myers Report Fast 15. It is May 9th, 2025. It's hard
00:23to believe how quickly this year is going on. And what a week we have had. The president's
00:29first big trade deal with the UK came through just as skeptics were seeing a failure for
00:36his tariff negotiations. And we might remind everybody that we know that irrespective of
00:43the noise, President Trump and Mexico are working hand and glove. They are working very well
00:50together, and it's going to be very productive. And let me be clear, because as we had previously
00:57discussed, whenever something is good is going to happen in a negotiation, right before the good
01:04stuff really starts happening, it's going to look like the wheels are coming off the cart.
01:09That is what we're seeing. Some people are getting spooked by it. They shouldn't. So in case I am not
01:16being clear, as we have been forecasting for months, I believe that Trump is going to run the table on
01:22tariffs. It may take a few months longer than we may have thought, but it's going to happen. Remember,
01:28at this point, our forecasts have been better than 96% accurate. So have faith. Speaking of faith,
01:37another major event was obviously the Catholic Church now has a new pontiff. The question is,
01:44what is he going to be like? Fortunately, within our own group, we have people who know him, and we're
01:55going to be getting some insights, because apparently what the media has been saying regarding his previous
02:01positions and statements may have been more political and may not be what he believes, and that
02:09he may be more conservative than so far, at least than the pundits would have us believe. And there
02:18are some key signs about that with the vestments that he's wearing and some other things, which,
02:23not being Catholic, I'm going to leave that to the experts when we do a discussion on that ourselves.
02:28Okay, moving forward, Don Day, our wonderful farming expert, meteorologist, climatologist,
02:38extraordinaire. How are you doing this morning? I'm doing good. Good. Don, there's a whole bunch
02:44of people that are saying that without illegal aliens invading our country, our crops are not going
02:51to get picked, and we will have a disruption of our food supply. Do you believe this to be true or not?
02:58Oh, I don't think it's completely true. I mean, certainly I think there'll be some farmers that
03:03may be a little bit shorthanded in California, Arizona, Texas, where...
03:07Wait a second. You said you don't think it's going to be completely true, and the question was,
03:13are we going to have food shortages?
03:15No, we're not going to have food shortages. No.
03:17Okay, so you were saying...
03:19No farmer is going to let food rot in the field, that's for sure.
03:22What about the techniques that we're using to be more productive and more efficient?
03:30Well, you know, I've attended some farm shows over the last couple of years that show incredible
03:37strides in technology in terms of harvesting crops from not only weed control, where they're
03:46having AI and robots going down row crops, and instead of using chemicals to kill weeds,
03:53they're using basically blow torches to go identify and find a weed and burn it.
03:59What?
04:00Yeah, I mean, the technology is going to get...
04:04They find a weed and burn it out by the roots?
04:08Yep, burn it.
04:09With no chemicals?
04:10No chemicals.
04:12And when you burn something like that...
04:13Use that in my backyard.
04:15Yeah, exactly.
04:19But the interesting thing is, when you do burns like that, you actually increase the fertilization
04:25and productivity of the fields you're burning.
04:27That's the point.
04:29Right.
04:30You know, so the strides in technology will, I think, sooner than later, almost not a completely
04:37eliminate handpicking of crops, but get close to it.
04:41Wow.
04:43No one is seeing that one coming.
04:45And let me guess, what country on the face of the earth has the greatest capacity for innovation
04:51and adaptation?
04:53Well, certainly here in the U.S., because year after year, our yields, despite weather
05:02challenges, continues to grow and get bigger.
05:04There's other places in the world where they're excellent farmers and make use of what they
05:11have.
05:12But there's a good reason why the U.S. is still the breadbasket of the world.
05:17Weather-wise, how does it look for crops this summer?
05:19Yeah, there are a couple of concerns.
05:22The upper Midwest, the Northwest corn belt's dry.
05:25I think that dryness may continue into summer, but I think we're probably headed towards another
05:30year of at least average yields.
05:33Corn, soybeans, wheat, don't see any big problems that would affect yields.
05:39Okay.
05:39For us, an average year would be incredible productivity elsewhere.
05:45Exactly.
05:45Okay.
05:47What about elsewhere in the world?
05:50No big trouble spots.
05:53You know, we always, this time of year, start watching Eastern Europe, Ukraine, you know,
05:57those areas.
05:58And right now, Eastern Europe is going into the spring dry in some areas.
06:04There may be a little bit of talk about that.
06:06But there's nothing that really sticks out globally as a big problem.
06:10So, basically, we're looking for a good crop year with nothing dramatic happening on the
06:15horizon.
06:17Knock on wood.
06:18Okay.
06:19And how are we going to do for our own weather for the next week?
06:22It's pretty cold here in Chicago.
06:24Should we blame you?
06:25Because you forecasted.
06:27You immediately blame the weather person.
06:29That's exactly what you should do.
06:31Very productive.
06:32May still has got lots of ups and downs.
06:35Ups and downs for the next three or four weeks.
06:37Now, I do see, let's say, 20 days from now that I do see a summer pattern getting established
06:45across most of the U.S.
06:48But we're in that in-between time of year where we're not, we're still spring, not summer.
06:53We can see summer from here, but we're not in it.
06:56Okay.
06:57Isaac, there's been a lot of talk about shipping.
07:02What is happening in shipping these days?
07:04Well, we saw a big push from importers, Gary, right after the election, mainly the larger
07:09players, trying to get as much product into the United States as possible before any tariffs
07:14hit.
07:15That front-loading led to a tremendous wave of volume from December through March.
07:21But things changed really fast in April.
07:24From last week of March to first week of April, we saw volumes dip in the neighborhood of 64%
07:33to the United States.
07:35So, April, what's the year?
07:3764%?
07:3764%.
07:38What a second, did you say year over year or just one month?
07:42That's just one week.
07:44That's just from last week of March to the first week of April.
07:47So, that's a one week.
07:49Okay.
07:50We have a shot, by the way, of the Port of Los Angeles.
07:57Do you want to tell us what we're looking at here?
07:59So, the Port of Long Beach is the largest port in North America.
08:04So, that picture on top is the ingate of all those truckers trying to get into the port
08:10to ingate containers.
08:12The one below was taken...
08:14One second.
08:14When was that shot taken?
08:17That was done a year ago.
08:18So, that was last year.
08:20And what is the shot below it?
08:21The one below was Tuesday morning, 8 a.m., which is peak time for any port, railhead,
08:27in North America.
08:28Now, the reason for the graininess of this picture is this was a photo taken by one of
08:36the gate cameras at the port.
08:38That is correct.
08:39Now, that port is usually crawling with trucks, as you can see with the illustration above.
08:44That picture is as eerie as being in downtown Chicago or downtown New York City on a Saturday
08:51night at 10 p.m. and no one's around.
08:54That's what we're looking at here in the trucking industry.
08:58Sort of like COVID at high noon on a business day.
09:01Absolutely.
09:02Absolutely.
09:03And again, we're probably about three weeks away from seeing the effects of that hit our
09:09supermarkets here in America, unfortunately.
09:12Okay.
09:13How are truck companies looking?
09:16Not great.
09:17Not great.
09:18Not great or really bad?
09:20Oh, really, really bad, unfortunately.
09:22So, a couple of my buddies already, they're calling, looking for freight.
09:25A lot of the draymen here in Chicago have a lot of concern.
09:29You know, this is a time to be diversified.
09:32Okay?
09:33This is a time of really, really telling our partner carriers to start stepping outside
09:38of what they're normally used to.
09:40Right?
09:40Go do some over the road.
09:41Do some flatbed.
09:42Flatbed shipping is up 70% right now, year over year.
09:45So, people who are really going to struggle, the ones who aren't willing to diversify,
09:51aren't willing to step outside their norm, they're going to struggle in a very big way,
09:55Gary.
09:55They already are.
09:57If flatbeds are up when everything else is down, what are the flatbeds hauling?
10:01What industry sectors would that be?
10:03So, we're doing a lot of steel.
10:04A lot of steel is moving right now.
10:06Tremendous amount of steel.
10:08So, Bob Janetsky, if there's a lot of steel moving, how do you take that information?
10:15Well, anything that's moving is good news.
10:18We want things to move.
10:19We'd like to see it move across the board, but whenever we see anything like steel moving,
10:25that's great and wonderful.
10:26It would seem to me that if steel's moving, that means that there's construction going on.
10:33Something's going on somewhere.
10:35Something is being built with it.
10:36Isaac, do you know what kind of steel it is?
10:38Is it roll or slab?
10:41Coils.
10:41So, not only does Legacy do a lot of coils, but what we're seeing a lot in the marketplace right now
10:46is the movement of hauling steel coils.
10:50Prices are up about 20% rate per mile right now.
10:54What do they use that steel for, Isaac?
10:56So, our customers build grain silos.
11:02That's what we do specifically.
11:05Yeah.
11:07Okay.
11:09Bob Janetsky.
11:11Yes.
11:11What is your forecast in general for the economy with all the tumult going on?
11:16Yeah, there is so much going on.
11:19Again, you just have to take the economy and forecast with a grain of salt at this point
11:25because so many moving parts, and the parts can change very rapidly, as they did this past week.
11:32When that UK agreement, trade agreement that Trump announced, I think that was a watershed agreement.
11:40It provides a template for future agreements.
11:44And what do I mean by a template?
11:45Basically, what it appears Trump wants to do, and what he got with the UK, is the US tariffs of 10% are going to stay on everything.
11:57And in return, other countries are going to be expected to lower their trade barriers, and also lower their tariffs, which is what the UK did.
12:06They lowered their tariff from an average tariff of 5% on US goods to down about 1.8%.
12:13So, it was a win-win for the United States.
12:18Now, I don't like the 10% tariff.
12:21I think that's still disruptive.
12:23However, Trump's strategy, which he laid out very clearly, was that he wants that 10% tariff to stick,
12:32so he's willing to deal with the disruptiveness,
12:35but he also wants all of those revenues to go for further reducing tax burdens here in the United States,
12:42making sure that the Social Security tax cuts go through,
12:45and making sure that no tax on tips or overtime go through.
12:49So, there's an offset to the disruption, and I'm sure it's the greatest offset, but that's the plan.
12:58And it's a lot better plan than him putting 25% tariffs on steel and 25% on aluminum
13:06and trying to pick and choose which industries get help or hurt.
13:11Just a flat 10%, far simpler, far less disruptive than it could have been.
13:18So, I'm very optimistic.
13:20I think this new trade deal serves as a guide for future trade deals,
13:27and my expectation is that within the next couple of weeks,
13:31we're going to see one country after another agree with the U.S.,
13:34because they all want to trade with us.
13:37The U.S. economy, unbelievably—
13:38So, you see Trump running the table as well?
13:41Pardon?
13:42You see Trump running the table as well?
13:44Yeah, I think he will.
13:46I mean, it's going to start with one or two countries, probably India, Japan, South Korea.
13:52So, we already have Mexico quietly, sort of quietly.
13:57Yeah, we'll see what happens with Mexico.
14:00So far, I agree with you, Gary.
14:02Gary, I think they're working—Scheinbaum.
14:06Scheinbaum.
14:07Claudia Scheinbaum.
14:09Yep.
14:09She's working very closely with Trump.
14:12Things are looking much better than they did, let's say, a couple of weeks ago
14:17when Trump was giving all these crazy numbers on tariffs.
14:23And again, it was all Trump trying to get everyone's attention.
14:27He got their attention.
14:28He said, they're sitting down to talk with him.
14:33That was the whole purpose.
14:35And my only hope was that, you know, we wouldn't have the government picking and choosing different
14:40industries, such as steel is going to get a big tariff and aluminum is going to get a
14:46big tariff, whatever he comes up with.
14:48I mean, it was almost like picking names out of a hat for who's going to get hurt.
14:52But 10 percent across the board, a lot better than—and a lot less damage than you would
14:59do when you try and pick which companies are going to be benefited and which aren't.
15:05Don, how are farmers looking at the tariffs?
15:08Well, you know, it depends.
15:09Because there's this picking and choosing.
15:11I mean, you've got the corn, you've got the soybeans, you've got the big buyers like
15:16China of soybeans.
15:17So there's concern.
15:18And really, it's more of not knowing exactly how things are going to shake out is the biggest
15:25concern that farmers have.
15:28I'm reading some reports that the farmers are liking this.
15:32Well, it's going to depend.
15:33I mean, everyone, certainly in the beef industry, is happy with what came with the U.K.
15:38deal.
15:39That's opened up the beef market a little bit more.
15:42So a lot of it's going to depend on crop and whether it's corn, soybeans, or beef or pork.
15:49Got it.
15:50Bob, so where do you see the GDP going in the next three to six months?
15:55I think we're going to hang in there.
15:56I think current dollar spending is going to keep going up by about 5 percent per year.
16:03And there's still going to be some disruption from the tariffs.
16:07When you make big changes like this, it usually doesn't go smoothly.
16:11There are bumps in the road along the way.
16:13When you make any changes, there are going to be bumps in the road.
16:16Yeah.
16:16I don't even care if you're talking about economics or just changing what you're going to put on it.
16:21And we're going to be looking at those bumps in the road, most likely for the next six months
16:25as things get ironed out.
16:27But as those things get ironed out, I think we're going to start to see the first signs of
16:33real growth picking up.
16:35And the more real growth picks up, the less pressure we'll have on inflation.
16:39So in general, so how do you look at inflation?
16:43Well, inflation is still with us.
16:44Right now, I think the numbers are somewhere in the vicinity of 3 percent.
16:49You know, some data are lower, some are higher.
16:52But I think we're about 3 percent right at the moment.
16:54And we could go up temporarily a little higher, depending upon how the tariffs play out.
17:01But later on this year, I suspect that as real growth comes on, there's going to be less
17:06pressure on inflation.
17:08Inflation rates are going to come down.
17:10And if inflation rates come down, interest rates are going to come down.
17:15Okay.
17:16With that, let's wrap up.
17:18Bob, are you optimistic or pessimistic about the economy and the nation going forward?
17:23I'm very optimistic, especially with this first deal being done.
17:28I'll be a lot more optimistic if I quickly see the other countries following suit.
17:35Isaac.
17:36I'm very optimistic.
17:38In fact, we're putting our money where our mouth is.
17:40We're doubling down.
17:41We're in full blown growth mode right now.
17:44So yeah, yeah.
17:45We believe in what the president is doing.
17:47We're going to make it out of this stronger and better than ever.
17:50You go, baby.
17:51You go, girl.
17:54All right.
17:55So Don, after hearing everything we've said this morning about, are you optimistic or
18:02pessimistic about the country and about the economy and everything else?
18:07Well, I remain very optimistic.
18:09I certainly think that it takes some fortitude to kind of get through what we're going through
18:15right now, because if you just listen to the news cycle every day, it's easy to get depressed
18:21or think things are going south when in reality, I think we're headed in the right direction.
18:26Excellent.
18:27Have a great weekend.
18:30Be well, stay safe, and God bless America.
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