Black Friday Sales Climb Despite Broader Economic Concerns

Bloomberg

Watch Black Friday Sales Climb Despite Broader Economic Concerns - Bloomberg on Dailymotion

Transcript

00:00There are so many different metrics that come at us. Is there a metric that catches your attention

00:04more than most, or is it that you rely just on kind of the work you guys do? I rely on what we

00:08do, but I also look at all the metrics to tell a story. And frankly, what you're seeing the

00:12metrics tell the story of, essentially it was solidly optimistic for this upcoming holiday

00:18season. There are good metrics. A lot of the metrics surpass their expectations. The other

00:23thing when you look at online versus in-store, in-store is always going to be lower than online

00:29because online is a smaller part of the business. But one of the differences this year is online

00:34sales, the rate of growth slowed. It's going off a bigger base. While you're looking at

00:39in-store, the rate of in-store sales increased for some. Traffic is holding steady with what

00:45it's been year to date. And I think for whatever you want to say, the Gen Zers, the teens, they

00:50like that experience of being in stores. That's what I saw on Friday when I traveled all the

00:55stores. What do you mean by that? Like, this is like the same people who watch Friends ironically,

01:00because they, you know, didn't watch it the first time around, are now going to the mall?

01:04The teens are going to the mall also. Yeah, that's what I mean. Everyone wants the experience. I think

01:08what everyone missed from COVID, talking to each other, saying this looks nice on you, or look at

01:13this deal, that communication matters. So what's old is new again, Carol. They're going back to the mall,

01:19just like we did when we were kids. Well, I know. Who doesn't love a mall? I don't love a mall anymore.

01:22Having said that though, Dana, like my daughter, 22, we, there was something she was going to buy

01:27online, but we went to Bloomingdale's to try it on and she ended up like, okay, this doesn't work

01:31and not buying it. So it's like interesting kind of this mix of how we're figuring it out of how to

01:36shop. And it's always the surprise because when you buy something you've had before, maybe you do

01:41get the same size or you know what it is when you're buying something new. And one of the things this

01:45year is there is newness to wardrobing. You're looking at shoes where people are going back to,

01:51whether it's black, brown suede boots, like Steve Madden is selling, whether it's wide

01:55leg denim jeans, it's not just the same old, same old, and partially because events are taking place.

02:01So we look at retail sales as this monolith, but we know that's not the way that they're

02:08actually sliced. What would you say characterizes the companies that are doing a good job at actually

02:14bringing consumers through the door versus the ones that are not?

02:17Newness. I think the newness and product innovation really matter. Something that they don't have in

02:22their closets. You think about the newness, even in consumer electronics, whether it's Nintendo,

02:27whether it's aura rings, there's new things out there. Same old, same old, you're going to watch

02:32for the deals and what the value you're getting. But today, when you have, whether it's coach adding new

02:39items to their tabby collection, whether it's Macy's who now has 40% newness, 20 new cosmetics,

02:47brands in their stores, whether it happens to be Steve Madden, which I mentioned, the brown suede

02:51boots, the closed toed shoes at Birkenstock, or you look at Levi's, which frankly has new

02:57collaborations that's driving demand. So what are you showing me this year that you didn't show me

03:02last year? What about promotions? Because I have to say leading up to it, I saw some big promotions,

03:0650, 60, and they built through that through kind of the weekend. So we do a tracker, 85 retailers

03:12that we track every holiday. We've been doing it for over 10 years. We did see promotions build,

03:17particularly in some of the specialty apparel retailers, but not everyone. And we saw some

03:22promotional increases, whether it's the Bath and Body Works we saw it in, and you've seen a wider

03:27range of promotions instead of maybe last year, 40 to 50, maybe it's 40 to 60%. You're going to watch

03:33that. At the same time, you know who had fewer promotions or less promotion? Ralph Lauren,

03:3830% off instead of 40% off last year. So what's the picture that all this paints of

03:44the consumer? I think it paints a consumer who's a bifurcated consumer, higher income continuing to

03:50spend, lower income basically being very discerning in what they're spending on their,

03:55particularly on essentials. But it's also showing consumers want to celebrate the holiday season,

04:00and they'll think about January and January, and they'll spend for holiday.

04:04How much though, I think about this a lot. I mean, how are they buying? We saw some information

04:11about the buy now, pay later, continuing to be an important payment option for consumers. Adobe

04:17forecasting 20.2 billion will be spent through the payment method this holiday, 11% growth over 2024.

04:24I think on the buy now, pay later, look who it's going after. It's going after those consumers who

04:29have more limited spending power, and it's picking up interest. You are seeing companies who've had

04:34buy now, pay later for a long time. It's still important. It's everywhere now. It is everywhere. So

04:40it's not as differentiated as it had been in the past. It's not a sign of anything in your view?

04:45No, I'm watching credit card delinquencies a lot. We're looking to see what that looks like.

04:49We're watching certainly what consumer spending looks like. And if anything, you're still seeing

04:54some pretty solid results. Take a look at the retailers' earnings the past few weeks.

04:59Well, they've been mixed. Some of the outliers, I mean, who would have thought Kohl's? Kohl's

05:02basically showed some improvement. And we've seen some good results. More to come this week,

05:07because this week, everyone from Macy's, Victoria's Secret, Ulta, Signet are all reporting,

05:12and we'll get some more color on discretionary.

05:14So it feels pretty good.

05:16It feels okay.

05:17Tariff-driven price increases. I mean, the demand elasticity is something to be watching carefully.

05:22So that's definitely there. Does it feel like a season where folks were like,

05:27holidays are important, and so I'm budgeting so that I can spend here,

05:31and maybe I won't do something else?

05:33I think there's some of that, but I think they're also spending saying,

05:35I'll pay it back later. I think they want to celebrate, given it's been a tough year with

05:40a lot going at consumers all at the same time.

05:43So you said that Nintendo has done a good job this year of bringing consumers through the door.

05:48Yeah.

05:49Companies including Steve Madden, Levi's.

05:51Ralph Lauren.

05:52Ralph Lauren. What are the hot products as we look to December?

05:55You have to say LaBubu.

05:56Oh, LaBubu is the hot product.

05:58Oh, yes.

05:58I was saying, I don't even know what a LaBubu is.

06:01It's like a little troll thing on a backpack.

06:03Collectible.

06:04Yep.

06:04It could be on handbags, backpacks.

06:06Guys and girls wear LaBubu or have LaBubu's, and it is the hot thing now.

06:10Do you have LaBubu?

06:11No, I don't.

06:12Do you?

06:12Just a second.

06:12No, I don't.

06:13No, but it's just kind of wild.

06:14Well, now I know what I'm getting each of you for the holidays.

06:17Is there like an it thing?

06:20That is the it thing.

06:21The LaBubu is the it thing.

06:23I mean, there's other things out there that are certainly trending.

06:26Legos are always trending and are very popular, so who can't take that away?

06:30Yeah.

06:30When it's gotten colder out, so you're definitely seeing sweaters and outerwear take center stage.

Category

Transcript

Be the first to comment

Recommended