Retailers Are 'Cautiously Optimistic,' on Black Friday, Telsey Says

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Watch Retailers Are 'Cautiously Optimistic,' on Black Friday, Telsey Says - Bloomberg on Dailymotion

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00:00After stopping at Macy's today, they were the first ones that said, let's put things on sale Friday.

00:07What did you observe today in the 2025 Macy's?

00:11A couple things. First, thank you so much for having me and I hope you had a great Thanksgiving.

00:15What I saw at Macy's, it's a different type of Black Friday than it was in the past.

00:19The reason why? Crowds and traffic, the buzz doesn't kick up until later in the day.

00:25And that's for a lot of retailers. Macy's opens at 6 a.m., but others open later.

00:29What did I see at Macy's that was different? 40% newness.

00:33La Bubu is the hottest thing out there. Still hot.

00:36Still hot. There's a Pop Mart in-store shop at Macy's.

00:39The other things that are new and different at Macy's, different brands also.

00:44Whether it's cosmetics brands, they have a bunch of new cosmetics brands that are different.

00:48Whether it's also the engagement with newer brands like the Donna Karens of the world that are there, Rag & Bone that's there.

00:55It's been exciting to see the formation of it, but it's always promotional.

01:01And all the tracking we've done, we're not seeing a much different link between the level of promotions this year versus last year so far.

01:08So, I mean, retail analysts like Dana Tesley, this is arguably the most important day of the year.

01:13Super Bowl of the year for me.

01:14Super Bowl of the year for Dana.

01:15And clients are calling her and texting her all day, what are you seeing?

01:19Because they know she's out at the stores and they want to know what she's seeing out there.

01:25How do you expect this holiday season to be?

01:27And just in terms of dollars for the retailers, are the retailers optimistic here?

01:31I think they're cautiously optimistic.

01:34You really have a bifurcated consumer.

01:35I mean, that high end is spending.

01:37Obviously, you've seen the benefits of the stock market, the wealth effect that Ed just talked about.

01:42On the low end, the pressure points, obviously prices have gone up.

01:46Retailers are striving to make sure that opening price point items stay as close as possible and no increases.

01:53But you are seeing consumers search for value, search for more promotions in order to drive conversion.

01:59And that's why what the theme of Holiday 25 is, newness and value.

02:03Offer something new, offer value, and you'll get conversion.

02:08Ed Yardeni, one top strategist on Wall Street.

02:11Dana Telsey, top retail analyst on Wall Street.

02:13What do they have in common, Tom?

02:14C.J. Lawrence.

02:16What is it about that place?

02:17You were at C.J. Lawrence.

02:18I was at C.J. Lawrence.

02:19I didn't know that.

02:19I loved it.

02:20I didn't like it there.

02:21It was an awesome place.

02:22Great people.

02:23The best research on Wall Street back in the day.

02:24It was like religion, folks.

02:26Crazy.

02:26Those of you younger don't understand this.

02:28You used to get things on paper.

02:30And there was that green ink of C.J. Lawrence, which had an authority like no one.

02:34Dana, is there anything, is there one category that is going to drive this year's sales or

02:39is it more broadly based, do you think?

02:40I think it's always about outerwear when it gets cold.

02:43It's about apparel.

02:45We've got some other new things out there.

02:46The aura rings are very popular.

02:48See, I told you, Lisa.

02:49You've got to get the aura rings.

02:51Meta glasses are very popular.

02:54And what about the Lububu dolls?

02:56Oh, man.

02:57For all ages and income levels.

02:59In the time we've got left, I want you to talk about your heritage.

03:02Fifth Avenue is getting blown up.

03:04Prada bought a zillion square feet.

03:06You've got the whole Lewis Voughton with the rebuild with the carriage out front.

03:10That's great.

03:10And in all that, you as a child, standing in front of the Bergdorf-Goodman windows,

03:17what was it like to be four and five years old?

03:21Nothing's changed, right?

03:22It's still the same magic.

03:24Bergdorf looks still the same, but it's still the aura.

03:26And having that snowflake above 57th Street with the Empire State Building in the background

03:32with different colors off the top, there's nothing in the world like it.

03:36With troubled luxury, will we see mergers this year?

03:41I don't know if you see mergers.

03:42I think you see more companies opening more of their own stores.

03:45You've seen some divestitures.

03:46You look at, obviously, Versace was sold to Prada.

03:50You've seen that.

03:50Let's see what happens with Giorgio Armani, given his passing.

03:53I've got to give you the same question I gave the wonderful Steve Sadov, who was with us in the last hour.

03:59What would you do with Gucci?

04:02Oh, I think basically you need to bring Gucci back to its heritage and be able to update it and modernize it,

04:08whether different colors, different fabrics.

04:09You need to tell a communicative story virtually and visually and have brand ambassadors that everyone wants to follow.

04:19Do we have enough stores, or are we still shrinking the footprint of stores in this country?

04:23Where are we in that?

04:24Store footprint is basing out.

04:26We've already closed a lot of stores.

04:28If anything, stores may be smaller.

04:30There's new engagement, certainly with buy online, pick up in store, and their activations.

04:34You've seen it in luxury with the Christian Dior store that opened, with Hermes that opened, but you're even seeing it with other stores, too.

04:41Check out Aritzia.

04:43It's a destination.

04:44Well, that's how you pronounce that.

04:45Aritzia.

04:46Elise Mateo's all in on that, right?

04:48Oh, I love their jeans.

04:49I just went to Soho with my daughter.

04:52Well, what about puffer jackets?

04:53It is cold outside.

04:54Yes, yes, yes.

04:55Puffer jackets?

04:56Did the interview just get taken over?

04:58I, Elise Mateo's in charge.

04:59I think so is, well, Paul mentioned this the other day.

05:04Still, for the haves, it's Summit, what's it called?

05:07Summit Hills Mall?

05:08Short Hills.

05:09Short Hills Mall near Summit, New Jersey.

05:12Chestnut Hill Mall in Boston.

05:14Those, Highland Park, whatever, in Dallas.

05:17Where are they in 10 years?

05:19They're going to be even more curated.

05:22They're going to have more special brands, and they're going to have more food and activities because people are going to want to gather there.

05:28That's what Jamie Dimon did.

05:30Listen to Danny Tulsi put food and activities at the J.P. Morgan building.

05:34You're single Best Buy here.

05:35We've got to make some money.

05:36I think you're still going to see TJX do well.

05:39I like Steve Madden also.

05:40Steve Madden, please discuss that.

05:42Brown suede boots.

05:44They're back.

05:45They also have a Kurt Geiger acquisition that's going to add to sales and margins.

05:49Very exciting for 2026 and beyond.

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