00:00Where are we at when it comes to the strategic planning for the rest of this war?
00:05We know that the U.S., the last thing that they want is another forever war,
00:08but there doesn't seem to be an end point when it comes to the administration or the president's objectives here.
00:15I honestly don't think that there has been any strategic planning for the day after,
00:22or possibly even the day of the start of this conflict.
00:28There is no real evidence that intelligence was used to its fullest extent
00:39in understanding what the situation in Iran was, or second-order ramifications.
00:47And so I really think that we are kind of making this up as we go along.
00:54So the president says that we're going to escort and insure tankers.
00:58That should have been part of the planning.
01:03That could have been forecast and should have been planned.
01:06So I'm not really seeing anything strategic.
01:09I'm seeing ad hoc, make it up as you go along, hope that it works out.
01:15But we're not even getting very clear signals on what the endgame is.
01:22We have at least three or four different endgames, and they can't all be run simultaneously,
01:28and some of them actually operate in conflict with each other.
01:33So I don't know.
01:38Sorry.
01:38I wish I had the answer.
01:40I don't.
01:42I think we all wish someone had the answer at this point.
01:44But we had some interesting remarks, some doubt being cast by the president today,
01:50saying that there is the chance that the new leadership could be just as hardline as the old leadership, right?
01:56We also know that Israel struck a top Iranian leadership meeting,
02:00where they were meeting, apparently, to elect a new successor.
02:03When the president says whatever it takes, what do you believe that to mean at this point?
02:08Does it mean eventually greater U.S. involvement on the ground?
02:13Well, no one has ever done a successful regime change from 35,000 feet.
02:20It does take planning and work on the ground, but it takes more than just boots on the ground.
02:26And I'm not entirely sure that the president is willing to pay the political price for putting boots on the
02:33ground in another war in that region.
02:38A good set of analysts would have explained to the president that removing the supreme leader
02:46and certainly removing most of the rest of the leadership is going to create a vacuum.
02:53Iran could slide into chaos.
02:57It could end up with a military dictatorship, somebody coming out of the IRGC.
03:03I think the possibility near term of a moderate leader coming to power who would be willing and able to
03:14agree to all of the president's demands,
03:19including total denuclearization, the end of the missile program, and support for proxies.
03:28I don't think that that is a realistic endgame, certainly not near term.
03:36What are the immediate risks in this conflict as there is a power vacuum, to your point, in the Iranian
03:43leadership?
03:44How much more dangerous has this all made the situation?
03:48I think the vacuum is extraordinarily dangerous.
03:52Politics do not love a vacuum any better than nature does.
03:56And there's going to be jockeying for position.
03:59The guys with the guns tend to win those kinds of fights.
04:04And it could be a series of interim governments, none of them with real authority, certainly not to negotiate.
04:13And I don't think we have seen the beginning of the power struggle, much less be able to forecast when
04:21it will be over.
04:22I think it's important to note that there is, culturally, religiously, 40 days of mourning, which means 40 days from
04:30the death of the Supreme Leader,
04:32there will be an uptick in violence and probably in the whole succession issue.
04:42So this is going to take some time.
04:44This is going to take a very long time.
04:48How committed would you say the U.S. is?
04:52I mean, we keep coming back to this question about how long this is going to last.
04:55We have been getting suggestions that the U.S. hand was forced in some ways by Israel.
05:03Does that speak to the level of commitment we can actually be expecting in the next couple of weeks and
05:08beyond this 40 days, as you suggest?
05:11Yes, that's a very that's that I think is a critical question is how much persistence and focus will remain
05:20on Iran.
05:21The idea that we went to war in the region and put our allies and friends at risk because Israel
05:29was going to do something anyway.
05:32And we were going to be the backlash was going to hit us anyway.
05:37So we got ahead of it, which is what Secretary Rubio said is a stunning comment.
05:44This is not an administration that is known for long term focus and persistence on details and how long this
05:55they will be able to last, how long they will stay.
05:59We also have an issue, and this gets to your question of our persistence, is we have an issue with
06:06munitions and we will have to pull munitions away from Ukraine, from Asia, from other places.
06:16And so we've got munitions.
06:18We've got political will.
06:20We don't know what the public reaction is going to be.
06:23We, a lot of Trump's core supporters, voted for him because they wanted an end to wars in the Middle
06:30East, not the start of a new one.
06:35We don't know what's going to happen to oil prices.
06:38So and I think something that I think the president's been rather callous about is there are going to be
06:46casualties.
06:48And that is going to drive home to a lot of Americans that we are not just striking Iran.
06:54We are in a war.
06:55And a lot of Americans don't want that.
06:57I don't know how long we will be able to stay.
07:01I don't take the president's statements at face value for reflecting policy or consider judgment.
07:11Robert, we're getting updates now from the IDF saying that they're targeting Iranian launch sites and aerial defense systems in
07:17a broad wave of attacks targeting Iran beginning now.
07:21I'm curious about this multiple front situation that's opened up, right, because a number of the targets for Iran have
07:27never been direct adversaries or indirect military confrontation.
07:31What is this strategy here?
07:33Is it and how much does it really strain, you know, the security guarantees, the diplomatic relationships in that region
07:40with the U.S.?
07:44Again, first of all, I don't ever think that there's I don't think there's a strategy.
07:47I'm not sure that there was a thinking through of the full ramifications for our partners and our allies among
07:57the Arab Gulf states in particular.
07:59And the ferocity with which Iran has been targeting the Gulf states in Saudi Arabia, the GCC states, not just
08:10our military facilities, their economic facilities, major ports, processing plants, and also commercial, residential areas and hotels.
08:26And this really does call into question, you know, what we will be able to do to protect our friends
08:33and allies.
08:34I will say that one of the reactions has been from most of the GCC states that I've heard from
08:40is that they had been working to have a constructive relationship with Iran to try to stabilize the Gulf.
08:51They all need that waterway to be open and free, not just for oil and gas to get out, which
08:59is how we look at it, but they get 80 percent of their food through the straits as well.
09:04And so there is a very strong feeling that Iran has betrayed their trust and their relationships and their abilities
09:14to have a stable relationship.
09:16But how exactly this is going to play out?
09:21Are they going to feel that we dragged them into this position or are they going to be looking to
09:27us to help them secure their territory, their assets, and most importantly, their people?
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