00:00We're calling it holiday spending, Mark, but that might only refer really to the time period that the shopping is placed in.
00:07I wonder what you're seeing when it comes to what people are actually spending their dollars on.
00:12Yeah, so we're expecting a really strong showing this weekend, 187 million people,
00:19which is a record number saying they're coming out, and 130 million on Black Friday alone.
00:24So this is really a confirmation that the bright spot in the economy right now is the consumer.
00:32And like you said, they're spending on many different things.
00:36They're not just spending on holiday items.
00:40When we look back to summer, we know the consumer is very, very into sales right now.
00:47We call it very promotional.
00:49And we've seen that any time there have been sales, consumers have jumped in and bought everything,
00:55not just the things that they need, like back to school.
00:58They weren't just buying back to school items.
01:00They're buying everything.
01:01And that's why we feel like going into this holiday weekend, people are going to be shopping.
01:07Consumers have told us that 60% of them are more interested in sales and more driven by sales this year than they were last year.
01:16Yeah, that's what I'm interested in, how this period compares to periods prior, because people always like sales.
01:23People like to feel like they're getting a deal.
01:25But, Mark, give us a little bit more detail about that comparison.
01:30Yeah, so what we do know is that if you think back to, you know, when we were in the pandemic period,
01:37we had a lot of people who were very concerned about the economy.
01:41And we see the same thing.
01:42We see very, very low sentiment right now.
01:44And that's manifesting itself not in a reduction in total spend.
01:48It's manifesting itself in that consumers are changing the way they're spending.
01:52They're trying to stretch their dollar.
01:54They're being more careful.
01:55And they're being, you know, a lot more focused on sales and, you know, focused on opportunities to, you know, get the best deals.
02:03So right now, that's the consumer psyche.
02:05And we also know that, you know, there are different economies out there, right?
02:10Higher incomes are spending a lot more.
02:12They're unaffected.
02:13But we do see lower incomes struggling a little bit more.
02:16But one thing that we have seen throughout the course of the year is that when it comes to spending on family and loved ones,
02:23the consumers have stepped up.
02:24Mother's Day, Father's Day, back to school, Valentine's Day, all of those events were at or near records for spending this year.
02:32And we should point out, Mark, I mean, you guys are basically tracking, like, real actual payment data, if you will,
02:38or basically card swipes and things like that.
02:40So you have a much better read into exactly what people are buying.
02:43I am curious, do you ever read into what day those people are buying?
02:46I know we make such a big deal about Black Friday itself, but I feel like I've been getting promotions for the last few weeks.
02:52I actually bought a suit a couple weeks ago, you know, 30 percent off, not bad.
02:56But I am curious.
02:57I mean, is it still, like, traditionally that is the biggest day, or do you see that maybe days further out into December end up maybe getting a little bit more action?
03:07Yeah, it's such a great question because we've seen this change, right?
03:10You think back to 15 years ago, Black Friday was about Black Friday that particular day and being in store.
03:17And now we've seen the impact spread out.
03:21So it's not just Black Friday.
03:23It's the Saturday.
03:24It's the Sunday.
03:25It's Cyber Monday as well.
03:26So consumers are spreading their dollars, but they're also shopping earlier.
03:30So we see a lot of consumers saying that they're shopping year round.
03:33The one thing that we have seen, though, is that it used to be that consumers would expect that all the good deals would be on Black Friday, and that was it.
03:42That was their one chance.
03:44We see that consumers now recognize that that may not be their last chance, that, you know, yeah, you're going to see some great deals on Black Friday,
03:52but you might well see deals throughout the rest of the year.
03:55So we do have some procrastinators out there like myself who might still get lucky, you know, December 24th.
04:02I love it.
04:04Of course, you're the procrastinator.
04:05What does it always say?
04:06Like, it's like the mechanic always has the worst car and the shoemaker has a hole in his shoes.
04:11But on that point, Mark, in all seriousness, I am curious, too, just about just sort of other trends, too.
04:17I mean, I've seen some reports out by the National Retail Federation how you're seeing an uptick in people doing thrift or secondhand types of gifts rather than buying something new.
04:26And I don't know if that's a cost issue or just maybe people being eco-conscious or whatever.
04:31Is that, like, a real thing?
04:33It is a real thing.
04:34We've seen that number tick up consistently year over year.
04:38And I think you're right.
04:39It's a number of different things.
04:40It is a cost issue.
04:41But there is also a sense that, you know, we like the vintage thing more, you know, and we love the thrill of the hunt.
04:49You know, when people talk about, you know, the Internet killing the store, it hasn't happened and it's not going to happen because people enjoy shopping.
04:58They enjoy going into the stores and looking for items.
05:01But I would say that when we ask consumers what they wanted most for the holidays, the thing that came top of the list was cards, right?
05:11So people want gift cards.
05:14And I guess that's because no one knows what you want like you do yourself.
05:20So zooming out, I mean, aside from just the holiday shopping period, we're talking about a consumer that's still spending, still resilient, increasingly choiceful.
05:28And this is something we were talking about with Michelle Meyer yesterday, actually, how the interaction with the labor market looks.
05:35Of course, we haven't been getting a lot of labor market data.
05:37But should we see a meaningful downdraft when it comes to the U.S. employment situation, Mark?
05:43How does that typically affect the consumer?
05:46Is that something you see happening in 2026?
05:49Yeah, it's fascinating.
05:51And we have seen unemployment tick up a little bit.
05:53You know, we're at 4.4 percent now.
05:55But, you know, if I think back to when I was younger, we considered 5 percent to be full employment.
06:00So 4.4 percent historically is still a relatively low number.
06:05You know, 5.5 percent is more like the historical average.
06:08So we're doing OK on that front.
06:10I do think it's worth mentioning that, you know, we've seen weakness in the job numbers.
06:14We haven't seen a lot of job numbers lately, but we have seen weak ones recently.
06:18But it's important to recognize that we don't need as many jobs in this economy to keep unemployment level, right?
06:26The Fed put out a paper not too long ago, and they said the number was around 30,000 new jobs a month to keep unemployment at a flat rate.
06:36Two years ago, that was 250,000.
06:38So we needed a lot more jobs then to keep the economy running along smoothly.
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