00:00Now let's continue with the analysis of this Sunday's Electoral Day in Honduras
00:04and now we are joined by international analyst Fernando Casal.
00:09Hi Fernando, thank you very much for joining us today.
00:13Thank you very much for having me.
00:15Let's jump riding.
00:16How would you describe the political climate in Honduras amid this crucial moment for the country?
00:23Well, I would say that it's highly polarized climate.
00:26There is a big polarization within the different candidates.
00:30It's something that we have been seeing lately in the occidental democracies quite often.
00:37And also I would say that there is a lot at stake in Honduras right now
00:42because we will see after this election if there is a new right-wing wave of governments in the region
00:50after Argentina and Bolivia
00:52or if the left still resist this Trumpist, I would say, intervention in the region
01:01and a sort of excessive attention in what it would be named as a new Monroe Doctrine
01:11or Backyard intentions of controlling countries like Honduras.
01:16So I would say that a lot is at stake tonight.
01:20And also from a regional perspective,
01:23how did you evaluate the recent deployment of U.S. military assets in the Caribbean
01:27and also in the context in which Trump has just announced
01:32that he's seeking pardon for a convicted far-right ex-president of Honduras,
01:36especially amid this electoral process.
01:38How can we connect all of this situation?
01:43I think it's very contradictory.
01:45On the one hand, it's accusing Rixi Moncada and Xiomara Castro
01:50of collaborating with the so-called non-existent Cartel of the Sons,
01:55you know, Cartel de los Soles,
01:57and deploying all this military power in the Caribbean.
02:02And at the same time, he's also saying that he's going to pardon a former president
02:08accused and convicted of trafficking drugs.
02:12So it's a bit awkward, this contradictory position.
02:17But it seems that he wants clearly to benefit its own political allies
02:22and at the same time trying to jeopardize or prevent the leftist government
02:28from staying and trying to do anything else in his hand
02:34to oust leftist government.
02:38So it's quite interesting.
02:40And I would really want to see how the Hondurans are going to react.
02:45Also seeing that the deportations of Hondurans since Trump got into power
02:53has increased dramatically.
02:56Over 30,000 Hondurans have been deported to Honduras.
03:00But it's very important taking into consideration that 27% of Honduran GDP
03:08comes from remittances and at the same time this express a way of trying to intervene
03:16in the internal affairs of Honduras and in the outcome of the elections.
03:22I want to see if the Hondurans are going to reject this intervention
03:25or as it happened in actually in Argentina in the recent legislative elections,
03:32it had a benefit on its own candidate, on Millet.
03:37So perhaps we will see the rejection of the Hondurans
03:40or perhaps they will sort of agree with this intervention that Trump is doing in Honduras.
03:53We will see that.
03:54Good evening.
03:55You are speaking about immigration and many analysts argue that U.S. policies
04:00towards progressive governments in Latin America
04:02and we are speaking from political pressure also to economic interference.
04:07have had destabilizing effects that contribute directly to increased migration from the region.
04:13How do you interpret this dynamic,
04:15especially considering it's increasingly aggressive anti-immigration rhetoric
04:19at the U.S., as you were mentioning?
04:23There is no doubt about it.
04:26Actually, recently we have seen really dramatic real cases like Hondurans
04:34that have been living in the U.S. for decades
04:38and having the regular life in the U.S., having the U.S. wife, children and has been deported from one day to another
04:48in also very blur judicial procedures and that have been actually contested at the moment in the U.S.
04:57So, I would say that this aggressive immigration policy that also Trump is developing against Latin Americans,
05:07asylum seekers and economic migrants,
05:12it's going to have also in the region devastating consequences,
05:17probably especially in those countries like Honduras that depend greatly in the remittances that comes from the U.S.
05:26And I would also like to see if this is going to have a revolt against the U.S.
05:33and its intention in the region or what kind of consequences is it going to have.
05:37So, in a way, Honduras is going to show us the path that in a great extent Latin America is going to follow as well
05:47because most probably what will happen in Honduras will also make think the U.S. administration which path to take.
05:59If it is successful in supporting the right-wing candidate,
06:06it will keep on pressuring progressive governments.
06:11But if they are defeated and the leftist candidate, Rixi Moncada, wins elections,
06:19they will realize that probably their strategies are not in the right path
06:24and that they will have to change if they want to still have an influence in the region.
06:30So, I think that tonight also we will see, depending on the outcome of the elections,
06:40what is going to be the future position of the U.S. in the region.
06:47Thank you very much, Fernanda, for joining us today and for your analysis today.
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