00:00So where do we stand actually with these stores? Are we going to need them to discount as much as we had hoped?
00:08The picture is very, very mixed. You know, everybody's talking about this bifurcated consumer.
00:13I've been writing about retail for 15 years. They've always been talking about the bifurcated consumer.
00:19But the difference really seems to be growing. You've got the very wealthy buying Cartier jewellery.
00:26You've got, you know, lower income shoppers really under pressure.
00:30And they are looking for value for money.
00:33Will Black Friday save the season or will we need to wait until the Christmas shopping period begins for retailers?
00:42I think Black Friday could actually give us quite a misleading picture because what we've seen is shoppers are really looking for value.
00:50What we saw in July when we had Amazon Prime Day is that consumers really used those discounts to buy not the things they wanted, but the things they needed, like household essentials, back to school supplies.
01:05So I think we will see people shopping on Black Friday.
01:08It wouldn't surprise me if we had a big Black Friday, but then I think it's going to be quite uncertain over the following few weeks.
01:16And, of course, you just got a budget in the UK. How are things looking over there for the consumer, Andrea?
01:21Well, the consumer's been very, very nervous going into this budget, and that's been reflected in retail sales.
01:30What we're also seeing this side of the Atlantic, we're seeing a lot of deals.
01:35And I think that reflects the uncertainty we've had over the past few weeks.
01:40Plus, at times, we've had quite more weather, which isn't great for sales of coats and boots and gloves and hats.
01:46So we've got quite a lot of deals on coats and boots at the moment.
01:50But I don't think there's maybe the budget wasn't quite as bad as feared for the consumer, but I'm not sure it's going to save Christmas over here.
01:59And, of course, Burlington said that weather caused Burlington to suffer this earnings season as well.
02:06Very briefly, Andrea, the turnarounds that we've seen at Kohl's and the outperformance by Abercrombie & Fitch and Dick's Sporting Goods, even Best Buy.
02:13Does that continue for these retailers?
02:16I think it really just comes down.
02:19It comes down to what you're selling, where you're positioned.
02:22Do you offer value for money?
02:25And are you a good retailer?
02:27You know, we've got Ralph Lauren, we've got Coach.
02:29Who are at the upper end of the income scales.
02:33Yes, they've got wealthier consumers, but they're doing a great job.
02:37And I think if you're TJX, you know, if you're doing a great job, customers notice and they will come to you.
02:44If you're doing a poor job, like someone like Target, like Kohl's was, then you're going to suffer.
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