- 19 hours ago
India’s markets may be cooling off briefly, but an expert says that this could be the calm before another upward move.
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00:00Good afternoon, welcome to market closing on our collab show between Business Today and India Today TV.
00:203 o'clock, counting down to market closing, let's take a look at what have been some of the key developments in trade today.
00:25After yesterday's record highs and bouts of profit booking, markets are now trading in a narrow range.
00:31Sensex flat near 85,750, while the Nifty is steady around 26,200.
00:36Selective buying in pharma, metal and auto stocks, while oil and gas shares continue to trade weak.
00:44Higher appliances India are looking for a 1,000 crore infusion from its parent,
00:48likely to support plans for a third manufacturing plant in South India.
00:52The company has overtaken Whirlpool India in sales, emerging as the third largest consumer electronics player.
01:00India awaits big Q2 GDP print.
01:03Finance Ministry sees 7 to 7.5% growth.
01:06Moody's pegs 6.8%, while SBI projects a stronger 7.5% to 8%.
01:11A wide forecast spread as markets look for clues ahead of the RBI's next policy review.
01:17U.S. President Donald Trump hints at a major tax overhaul, saying his administration may slash or even completely eliminate income tax over the next few years.
01:29Speaking to U.S. military personnel on a video call, Trump said that tariff revenues are soaring
01:34and may allow the government to phase out income tax entirely.
01:38All right, we've been trending at these all-time high levels, of course,
01:55and waiting to see if the markets continue to build on that momentum.
01:58So far, in slightly wait-and-watch mode, or just taking a breather, so to speak,
02:03Sensex now down about 200 points from the day's high, and 26.211 is where we're trading.
02:09It's pretty decent in the sense that yesterday as well, we hit about 26, almost 26.50, but close below that.
02:16So we're hovering just pretty much around that same range.
02:19We're not yet moving back up to the next leg and the 26.300 mark.
02:23That's what we're going to be watching out for next.
02:25So why are we seeing a little bit of a cool-off on the indices today and no major support coming in?
02:32Clearly, some amount of profit booking, of course.
02:34That's one of the key factors that we are tracking for you right now.
02:38We've also got the market waiting out for the GDP footprint.
02:43That number is expected very soon.
02:45The reprieve has declined slightly.
02:47Crude is edging up a little bit higher.
02:49These are some of the other macro factors at play.
02:52So market's clearly eyeing some kind of data trigger points to understand whether or not or how quickly really to move ahead from here.
02:59Abhishek Basumalik joining us, co-founder and fund manager at Srirama Managers.
03:03Abhishek, good afternoon.
03:04Let's get your take on the market trajectory so far.
03:09Good afternoon to you and all your viewers.
03:11I think, you know, the market is at an all-time high.
03:14It's taking a sort of pause here before we move on higher.
03:20At least that's the way I feel.
03:22That we are poised to move higher in the next few months.
03:25Let's see how it plays out.
03:28All right.
03:29Well, on a longer term, of course, we've had global brokerages come back with an eye on 30,000 now on the nifty.
03:36How soon do you think you feel perhaps as an annual target, at least that's perfectly doable?
03:41How soon do you see us starting to really run for those kind of levels?
03:47Amai, your voice is, you know, getting a bit garbled.
03:51I'm not sure.
03:52Abhishek, let's try and fix that and we'll come back to you in just a moment.
03:55In the meanwhile, let's bring you up to speed with, you know, what's really happening with Trump.
04:00Another shocker, but announcement which could be welcome in India as well.
04:03The U.S. president has proposed ending income tax completely over the next couple of years.
04:08He says it's because of the huge money that the U.S. is making from tariffs.
04:12Trump has earlier promised to use revenue from tariffs to compensate farmers hit by the tariff wars,
04:18as well as give up $2,000 dividends to all American citizens, including high income individuals.
04:24And they made the deals.
04:28I mean, they respect us, but they pay us, as an example, Japan, $650 billion.
04:34South Korea, $350 billion.
04:37European Union, $950 billion.
04:39And they are building plants now in the United States because they don't want to pay tariffs.
04:46So this is one of the biggest things economically that's never happened.
04:51Nobody's ever said anything like it.
04:52And over the next couple of years, I think we'll substantially be cutting and maybe cutting out completely,
04:58but we'll be cutting income tax.
05:01Could be almost completely cutting it because the money we're taking in is going to be so large.
05:08All right, Shail, also joining us this afternoon.
05:11Shail, we're taking a look at the index, and we're still just kind of breathing steady right now.
05:17Markets awaiting those GDP numbers, of course.
05:19A little bit of profit booking coming in, but incredibly quiet, that fairly stiff resistance
05:25at moving ahead from these levels, or at least in these few days.
05:29Yeah, Abha, I think there is also an RBI press conference at 5 p.m.
05:35We really don't know what the agenda for that one is.
05:38So the market is a little circumspect ahead of GDP numbers, ahead of the RBI press conference,
05:44and of course, ahead of the weekend of what has been a very fine November for many, many indices.
05:51So this is a consolidation phase.
05:53The Nifty gained 1.9% in November.
05:56The Mac Nifty is up 3.5%.
05:58And hold your breath, the Nifty IT index is up about 4.5%, 5%.
06:04So it's just digestion of these gains that is happening, and Monday we'll tighten our seatbelts
06:09for the auto numbers, therefore a bit of a rest.
06:12There's absolutely no volume in the market.
06:14The top credit count is 1,200 crores.
06:16This was something that we used to hit in the first five, six hours of trade.
06:20So it's all quiet.
06:21All right, I want to turn our attention to some of the new-age companies.
06:25Swiggy in the news, laying out a roadmap for a profitable venture.
06:28In conversation with our correspondent Karishma, CEO Rohit Kapoor breaks down how the company
06:34plans to rein in quick commerce losses and execute a long-term strategy built for scale.
06:39He also explains why the new labor codes offer a positive framework for gig workers
06:44and how Swiggy is restructuring to align with them.
06:50There are two things.
06:50One is that on the Instamart business, we have in our earnings call guided to a contribution
06:55margin positive business by June of next year, right?
06:59Having said that, look, the opportunity is so large.
07:03The quick commerce overall opportunity is several times out of food, right?
07:07So while profitability is definitely in a very important objective and at the contribution
07:14margin level initially, but overall, I think just becoming a very sizable player in that
07:19market is very rewarding.
07:22There are very few businesses and TAMs available which are the size of quick commerce in today's
07:27India.
07:28And so I think we consider fortunate to be able to have a brand as strong as Instamart in
07:33there and really growing at the rate it's growing.
07:36Okay, great.
07:38One last question.
07:39And this is, of course, to the recent announcement, also the labor codes that have recently rolled
07:45out for social security of gig workers.
07:47How do you see Swiggy adapting to the cost structure?
07:50Does it seem fine to go ahead with your strategies already in place?
07:54So, Karishma, two things.
07:56One, this was anticipated, right?
07:58It was about to come at some point, right?
08:01And the drafts and et cetera were being worked upon.
08:03Second, I think it is very, I think personally, it's a very positive move, right?
08:08And that's our organizational response as well, because it clearly recognizes gig workers.
08:13It also provides a clear framework on how companies in India should operate towards that,
08:18right?
08:18So it takes out a lot of ambiguity away, right?
08:21And that's always a good thing.
08:22I think for businesses, having certainty of policy is a very important dimension.
08:28And that, I think it scores highly on that count.
08:31On the economics, we're still waiting for the final details to come through, right?
08:34And the teams are working through it.
08:36But I don't think it'll be a significant impact in any which way.
08:42All right.
08:43Well, we've got Swiggy, of course, talking about creating a profitable future.
08:47We have brokerage views coming in on 197 that have been very positive.
08:51Lenscard has been moving on the back of earnings coming around.
08:54Grow has managed to make up some of those initial, you know, short selling right post the listing.
08:59So lots of action across the board on some of these new age counters.
09:02Shell, you know, Lenscard now has cooled off.
09:06It's just earlier in the day, it was up about 2-3%.
09:08197 has been looking strong.
09:10And Nika has been looking strong too.
09:11Abha, I think the size of the opportunity plus a lot of overseas money is flowing into many, many of these stocks.
09:22I'll give you an example.
09:24I was speaking to a fund manager and he said something really, really interesting.
09:27He said, you know, when an overseas fund manager comes to India,
09:30he wants to see stocks and businesses which they don't have in America or they don't have in Europe.
09:37And the internet space is the biggest one.
09:39And that's the reason, you know, money is moving away from steel stocks, from cement stocks, from IT stocks,
09:44and moving into this kind of a market where the size of the opportunity is so large.
09:50There is so much of digital acceptance.
09:53And of course, there's tons of money to be made because the market size is so huge.
09:57That's why you see so much of moves happening on stocks like Paytm, PB FinTech, Car Trade, Swiggy, Eternal.
10:07So many of them, these are rare, rare businesses, the size of which are phenomenal.
10:11Absolutely.
10:13By the way, the Car Trade, Car Deco deal is off.
10:16That was in the papers, of course, today.
10:18So not much brewing there now.
10:19Abhishek, welcome back.
10:21Counting down to close, 15 minutes to go.
10:23It's been really quiet today.
10:24But we've all been talking about where the next leg of the rally is going to come from.
10:28We've been talking about autos and banks, of course, the consumption boost.
10:33Also value to be found are some kind of value buying that's starting to come back in IT,
10:37which has had a pretty, pretty solid week.
10:39What are you looking at?
10:41In fact, I was just about to say, you know, IT, because if you look at, you know, one of the big beneficiaries,
10:49at least of sentiment, if and when we get the US-India tariff deal done,
10:55I think there was an announcement from the India side today that it's likely to happen before the end of the year.
11:01So if that goes through, then IT could see some kind of, you know, run up.
11:09So in the short term, IT, again, you know, it's been beaten down.
11:13It's not being talked about.
11:16So that could be a very interesting sector to play, you know, quick turnaround in the near future.
11:21All right. And within IT, Abhishek, where would you be looking?
11:29I think within IT, the mid-cap space looks much better compared to the large-cap services.
11:35I think a lot of these mid-cap service-oriented companies have been putting out good numbers as well.
11:42So I would focus in the mid-cap IT space.
11:46In fact, I think that's the query we had from Sheetal Singh in Mumbai, who wrote in about IT stocks.
11:51She's also asking, will they feel the heat of Trump's new migration comments?
11:55Do you see any impact coming in there, Abhishek?
11:59I don't think so. I mean, if you look at the way these services, businesses are structured,
12:04they've been de-risking from the, you know, from the on-site, you know, sending a lot of people from here, etc.
12:11That model, that's been, you know, sort of been de-risking at least for a decade now.
12:17So now a lot of hiring happens in the U.S.
12:21So I don't see this as a major challenge.
12:26Pratyush from Delhi has also written in asking if it's a good idea to invest in the upcoming Misho IPO.
12:32I don't know how closely you've been tracking the IPO buzz, Abhishek, but let me get a take from you on this.
12:38I think Misho, again, is a very, very interesting, you know, business.
12:41They've been doing really well and they are serving a very large segment, which is the non-traditional, where we usually don't look at, right?
12:50So they are serving the tier two, tier three cities, the more value-conscious buyers.
12:57And that by far is a much larger market.
13:00So Misho actually is a very interesting play in this overall internet service business.
13:07So definitely worth a look.
13:09Whether, you know, you want to buy it or not, it's a different, you know, ball game based on valuations, your holding period, etc.
13:16But definitely a business worth looking at.
13:18Okay.
13:20Shell, a lot of retail investors are not super thrilled about the current rally, which we've been celebrating, because they feel it still hasn't been wide enough to, you know, have a lot of the mid caps and small caps participating.
13:32And we have seen that lag, of course, in the kind of momentum we've seen in the broader markets.
13:37What do you feel is set to change there?
13:39What kind of indication can we give to the retail investor who's still feeling unsatisfied?
13:46I think, Abha, that's a wonderful question.
13:49And it's answered in two parts.
13:50Ahead of the budget, you should see a strong rally between December and February.
13:57Now, we've already moved substantially as far as blue chips are concerned.
14:01So, the difference that is there between the earnings discount and the stock price, that should narrow fairly rapidly.
14:09And since the liquidity cycle is improving, and typically mid caps and small caps move up once the cycle improves, I think just give it two or three months, and you'll see a very, very decent up move coming into quality mid caps, where second and third quarter earnings have been fairly substantial.
14:28And that's, you know, how patience pays off.
14:32Nothing for the last 15, 18 months, but good news in the pipeline.
14:38Okay.
14:39So, that's true.
14:39I mean, in the budget, we may, of course, hear another spate of reforms.
14:43I think that's what the market's going to be expecting.
14:46We've seen, of course, both the GST reform.
14:49We've had the rare earth policy come through.
14:51So, perhaps some expectation that a lot of the other sectors and smaller pockets of the market will also stand to benefit, whether it's exports.
14:59Of course, that will also benefit post the trade deal.
15:01But, you know, whether it's hospitality or, you know, some of the other more niche sectors, they will all stand to kind of see if something will come out of the budget there.
15:11Banking and financials, Abhishek, we can't not talk about it, because that's where a lot of the action has been as well.
15:17Across the board, private banks, NBFCs, PSUs, what are you watching?
15:22I'm watching all of these because, obviously, you know, the results have been good.
15:26The management commentary has been good.
15:29The price action has been good.
15:30So, you know, the entire space looks interesting.
15:33The only, you know, point of caution is that, you know, everyone on the street seems to be very bullish.
15:40So, you know, you have to be a little bit cautious when everyone turns bullish.
15:47If I look at, again, in the overall banking space, I think PSU banks offer a better value right now compared to at least the mid-tier private banks.
15:59The top-tier private banks like the HDFC and the Kotak, ICICI, they probably, again, you know, maybe a good bet.
16:09But, again, with them, you cannot expect very large, you know, moves or growth coming through.
16:16But, overall, I think the larger PSU banks offer a pretty good opportunity at this point in time.
16:24Okay.
16:25Well, 10 minutes to go.
16:27Not much of action.
16:28Nothing much that's moved, so to say.
16:31Shell, what are you spotting?
16:35Well, Abha, I'm just spotting stocks like Transformers and Rectifiers.
16:41They are top losers, down 10% this week.
16:44I'm actually looking at, you know, bottom fishing in this kind of a market.
16:48So, if you look at the top losers list for the week gone by, you'll see some very interesting names coming in.
16:55Transformers and Rectifiers down about 11%.
16:58Chennai Petro down 10%.
16:59Whirlpool losing 8.5% on a weekly basis.
17:03Deepak Nitrate and MRPL also slipping.
17:06So, these are stocks which are of good quality and you should be trying to buy the base building in this one.
17:14No point chasing record highs.
17:16We've done that much often.
17:17But, you know, the real money is made when you buy a stock well below its 200-day moving average and hope for it to rise above its 50.
17:26That's where the meat of the matter lies.
17:29All right.
17:30M&M is back in the green today.
17:32Kalyan Jewelers is up 2%.
17:33I'm just looking at the BSE 500 names.
17:36Hintzinc is looking good today.
17:38We've got some of the textile counters.
17:41Something must be brewing there.
17:42Again, it could be the Trade Buzz news shell because Vardaman is up 2.5%.
17:46Wellspun Living is up very sharply.
17:49It's up about 8-10% right now.
17:51Then we've got a mixed bag on Pharma.
17:54SRF is up 3.5% right now.
17:57So, that one's also looking pretty active at this point.
18:01I won't look at the 52-week highs like you just said.
18:03But one can spot a lot of these other interesting names in the broader markets right now.
18:09And we've talked about 197.
18:11That, of course, continues to look strong.
18:13Varun Beverages is up about 3%.
18:15Like I said, a mixed bag in Pharma.
18:17We've got IPCA Labs, for instance, that's moving.
18:19Lemon Tray is up 2.5% today as well.
18:22And we've been tracking some of those hospitality names.
18:24So, some amount of action coming in across the board, you know, in the wider markets on some of these names as well.
18:31Shell, any of these stand out to you as stocks that perhaps we've been seeing consistent moves in or any surprises?
18:39Varun Beverages, ABHA, for the very same reason that it's trading much, much, much, much below its all-time highs.
18:46We've seen 680 somewhere in July last year and now somewhere like 480.
18:53So, this is where, you know, sensible people hunt.
18:57You buy margin of safety and you hope for the best to happen.
19:01That's a stock that I'm looking at.
19:04Of course, I have no positions in it, but I'm looking at it and I have zero hope of a trade deal.
19:11We've seen this happening over the last six months.
19:14Every weekend, every day, you get this thing that it's happening tomorrow.
19:19So, I have, I mean, unless it happens, it is not happening.
19:23So, I don't look at textile stocks.
19:26I don't look at exporters.
19:27Because you've known to me to be a very optimistic person, but I have zero faith.
19:32So, it's true because this time last week, Shell said that it's definitely going to be out.
19:39And, you know, we are still waiting for the finality of it.
19:43But, you know, Abha, there is one interesting thought I had.
19:46You flagged off President Donald Trump talking about reducing income tax because tariff inflows are so high.
19:53You know, we are paying income tax here and now we are paying income tax on behalf of Americans also via tariffs.
20:00You know, what could be worse?
20:01I absolutely agree with you.
20:06It's actually no laughing matter.
20:08It's pretty serious and Trump is really at it again.
20:11Let's see how this unfolds.
20:13We do know that he tends to go back and forth on some of his policy disruptions.
20:18Let's also take a look in terms of levels.
20:21One of the things we know is definitely going to happen next week are those auto sales numbers.
20:24So, Abhishek, let's get some levels to track from you, whether it's an Ashok Leyland or a Hero or an Aisha.
20:30What are we looking at next week?
20:33So, I mean, I personally think that the two-wheeler space actually is very interesting.
20:39We've got good monsoons.
20:41All the numbers that has come, you know, so far, the festive sales for Bajaj, for Hero, for TVS, they've all been really good.
20:51So, I'm hopeful about the two-wheeler numbers and let's see how the, you know, other passenger vehicle car numbers come through.
21:01Maruti, Hyundai also, it's probably expected to do well.
21:06Okay, so bullish on auto, of course.
21:09Also, on the mid-cap and small-cap index, Abhishek, do you think you could give us some kind of target or level to watch out for when it comes to some of the, you know, broader market indices?
21:19I think, you know, small-caps haven't been performing all that well when compared to Nifty.
21:27I think mid-caps, I have to check the numbers, but top of the mind, I don't have them with Nifty.
21:33Sure.
21:33Mid-caps look, you know, significantly better than small-caps.
21:37Okay, so mid-cap, still a safer bet, one would say.
21:42Overall, today, the mid-cap index is also flat.
21:45Across the board, actually, it's pretty much flat, but most of the indices are in the red, apart from a little bit of respite on auto and banks, and also a little bit on the IPO index.
21:55We've got, yeah, pretty much across the board.
21:58But it's just completely flat shale.
22:01It's not like we've got any kind of massive cuts coming in anywhere.
22:05Absolutely, Abha.
22:06The Bulls are defending 26-200.
22:08That's a fairly, fairly decent way to close.
22:12I was hoping a close above 26-22.50.
22:16That would have been a fabulous end to the week and end to November, where you can't have everything.
22:22But I'd just like to mention one line as far as auto is concerned.
22:25And Maruti will be the new hero.
22:30And Hero, of course, will be a better hero.
22:34So, these are two very strong tailwinds that are coming in four-wheeler and two-wheeler spaces.
22:39And the numbers will bear us out somewhere in the first week of December.
22:45This is a very, very strong tailwind that we are tracking, especially in Maruti and Hero Motors.
22:49Abha.
22:50Okay, just, you know, just to sort of shake it up a bit, Shail,
22:53but we've seen a mixed bag from some of, for example, the hotel stocks, media stocks.
22:59I know you don't like textiles.
23:00Some of the other broader market consumer plays.
23:04Defense continues.
23:05If we had to look, however, at some of the more niche pockets, which one would you bet on?
23:09Just to play havoc for a moment.
23:14Defense.
23:16Defense.
23:16And that's simply because Mr. Putin is here from Russia.
23:21Lots of transactions are going to be announced over the next two, three days or so.
23:27And more importantly, there's a statement that's just come from the defense minister, defense secretary.
23:33He says that the defense ministry will work for a hike of up to 20 percent in the next budget.
23:41That one line says it all.
23:43And most of these stocks have corrected from their all-time highs.
23:46This is something that I'm looking with, how should I say, with glee and rubbing my hands.
23:52Bated breath.
23:54All right.
23:55Abhishek, let's get some of your topics.
23:57And I know we've been talking to you about, you know, some of the movers and shakers in the market.
24:02But let's get your strategy from you before we let you go today.
24:05I think I'll agree with Shail.
24:07I think defense is an area which the government has shown intent in terms of spending.
24:14We're seeing geopolitical challenges.
24:16So defense is one area.
24:18The second area is shipping.
24:20I think that's another area where there is a lot of focus from the government on shipbuilding, on dredging, on overall building up the maritime ecosystem in India.
24:31But it's a much longer-term play.
24:33It's not going to be short-term.
24:35Short to medium-term, I think defense is a very, very strong area to look at.
24:39Thank you for joining us, Abhishek.
24:41A quiet market.
24:42We're about to close any minute now and pull up the index for you.
24:46Very, very quiet today.
24:47But like I said, the bulls are resisting any kind of sell-off.
24:50They're just holding steady.
24:52Very key factors to watch out for.
24:54The RBI meet expected, of course, to continue in terms of a dovish commentary going forward on rate cuts.
25:00We've got the trade deal in the balance.
25:04We've got also the Fed rate cut coming up.
25:07We have the GDP numbers expected.
25:09Huge, wide range from 6% to 7.5% in terms of various brokerages and what they're thinking that number is going to be.
25:16But lots of indicative data points that could, of course, help to boost the markets further from here.
25:21We're already trending at those high levels.
25:22We hit them this week.
25:23We saw a really fab week on sectors like IT, for instance.
25:27A lot of value buying coming in there.
25:28A lot of 52-week highs across the board.
25:31Strong brokerage commentaries.
25:33FI buying has come back into the markets as well.
25:35And a lot of global brokerages are taking a relook at India.
25:38So the momentum seems to be taking shape, definitely coming in line, is in place for a year-end rally.
25:45We've just got about a month to go.
25:47But looking forward to seeing some of the triggers next week to see how the market can edge forward from here
25:52and perhaps see a new high even closer than the last one.
25:56So that's what it's looking like on close this Friday.
26:00Sheryl, thanks so much for joining us as well.
26:02We'll leave it there for now.
26:03Thanks so much for watching.
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