- 4 months ago
Experts highlighted the current opportunities in the market and suggested which sectors could perform well in the coming months.
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00:00Good morning and welcome to market opening on our brand new collab show between Business Today and India Today TV.
00:05It's 9am. We're here to get you ahead of the curve as markets kick off trading for the day.
00:11Let's take a look at what's hot in the corporate and financial space this morning.
00:16Missed filing your ITR? Here's good news. The deadline has been extended.
00:20One final chance today. A record 7.3 crore plus returns filed till September 15, crossing last year's 7.28 crore mark.
00:30India-U.S. trade talks to resume today amid tariff war.
00:37U.S. trade negotiator Brendan Lynch arrives in New Delhi for a one-day visit.
00:40Commerce Ministry says discussions will focus solely on trade issues amid the ongoing tariff dispute.
00:50Wall Street gained as Tesla rallied and Trump's upbeat comments on China trade talks lifted sentiment.
00:56The S&P 500 closed above 6600 for the first time.
01:00Nasdaq hit a fresh record while Dow ended with modest gains.
01:08Gold scaled a fresh lifetime high at 3680.80 oz a dollar,
01:15while silver hit a multi-year peak as a weaker dollar index below 98 and lower treasury yields boosted commodities ahead of the U.S. Fed policy meet.
01:25Sebi approves IPOs of Pine Labs and Hero Motors.
01:32Pine Labs plans a billion-dollar IPO to fund tech and overseas expansion as well as debt reduction.
01:39Hero Motors to raise 1,200 crore rupees via Fresh Issue and OFS.
01:44Offer for sale.
01:45Well, lots of deal action there, but let's take a look at the market setup and the global markets as well.
02:00Let's pull those up for you and just take a look at how we fared overnight and what we're heading into in trade today as well.
02:06Remember, we're watching out for the big Fed meet.
02:08That's really going to be the key market trigger, you know, for this week.
02:12Overnight, strong, healthy moves coming in.
02:15Largely, of course, led by tech once again.
02:17S&P, Nasdaq, Dow all in the green.
02:19Nasdaq in particular up close to a percent in yesterday's trade.
02:23So we're looking at 22,348 there on the Nasdaq.
02:26Asia this morning, a marginal downtick on the Hang Seng and Shanghai composite.
02:30But otherwise, Kospi is looking very good and Nikkei also up about 6 tenths of a percent right now.
02:36Gold and silver continue to be in focus, of course.
02:39Nifty this morning is showing just a flat indication in the pre-open and we'll get a sense on that with Shell in just a moment.
02:46And gold and silver for you.
02:47Silver continuing its uptick while gold continues to trend at those records.
02:52Shell, good morning.
02:53Let's take a look at the market setup and it's really quiet ahead of that Fed meet.
02:57How's the index looking to you?
03:00Good morning, Abha.
03:04And as they always say, mangalwar hai toh mangal hooga hi.
03:07Let's start with that positive thought and look at the Nifty.
03:11Well, for the last nine sessions, the index has gained somewhere like 680 points or so.
03:17So Monday's mild close in the red was mostly on the cards.
03:24Today we have the weekly expiry of the Nifty.
03:27So some short covering is expected.
03:29But overall, the picture is really, really positive.
03:33We have Mr. Brendan Lynch, the chief U.S. negotiator on tariffs in New Delhi.
03:40And that's a very, very positive sign for the last treat.
03:44Moreover, everything else is quiet.
03:46Crude oil is quiet.
03:47U.S. 10-year yield is quiet.
03:49Dollar index is down.
03:50So the positivity in the market is all for to be seen.
03:54You have PSU stocks doing very well, defense stocks in top form.
03:59You have a strong move coming on the Nasdaq.
04:02Remember, Nasdaq hit a record high.
04:03So all told, sentiment on Dalal Street, Abha, is positive.
04:08We are headed for a record high in calendar 2025.
04:11The sooner it comes, the better.
04:13Good monsoon, GST rate cut, as also the rejig in taxation and interest rates,
04:18all providing a positive figure.
04:21Abha.
04:21And, of course, easing off on all of those tariff troubles.
04:26But, Shere, let's take a look at some of the key stocks that are going to be in focus.
04:29And I know there's one in particular that you're watching very closely,
04:32and that's Adani Ports.
04:33Take us through why this one is going to be in the news or in focus.
04:41Well, Abha, this is one of those stocks that global brokerage Jefferies has pointed out
04:48to its institutional clients.
04:50It hopes to have a price target of about $1,812.
04:54We all know Adani Ports is somewhere like $1,400.
04:58So $1,812 as a one-year target provides a 29% upside on Adani Ports.
05:04Remember, for the last three years, the Adani Group hasn't had a good time on Dalal Street,
05:10and Adani Ports is no exception.
05:12It's trading well below its five-year median PE and price to book.
05:17But a lot of positives have come in as far as Jefferies is concerned.
05:21They're looking at a very strong volume growth by Adani Ports.
05:24Remember, it's India's largest port network, 15% to be precise.
05:29And that is somewhere in the vicinity of about,
05:34followed by a lot of capacity expansion of about 70,000 crore rupees over the next four years or so.
05:42In addition to that, there is EBITDA-led growth.
05:46And we also see a target of 1 billion tons for cargo by 2030,
05:53which itself is about a 17% CAGR.
05:57So volume growth, capacity expansion, and of course, fresh capacity that is going to come in.
06:05Now coming to valuations, ABBA, five-year median PE for Adani Ports is 26.7.
06:13And if you look at the median, it's somewhere like 29.7.
06:18So it's trading well below its five-year PE.
06:20And if you look at the price to book for the last five years,
06:24the average has been 4.61 versus the current price to book for Adani Ports at 4.54.
06:30So overall, we see an underpriced stock relative to the Nifty,
06:36something that Jefferies has highlighted.
06:38Capacity expansion, volume expansion, EBITDA expansion, and profit growth.
06:44Adani Ports is something that Jefferies ABBA says should be on radar
06:48for a price target of about 1,800 rupees from one year of now.
06:54All right.
06:54That's a deep dive into Adani Ports for you this morning.
06:57Thanks for that, Shail.
06:58Now, the Trump administration's chief negotiator, Brendan Lynch,
07:02is in India for a crucial round of trade discussions.
07:04The India-U.S. trade talks come against the backdrop of Washington's decision
07:08to impose 50% import tariffs on Indian goods,
07:12a move that New Delhi has slammed as unfair, unjustified, and unreasonable.
07:17Now, the visit by Lynch is being seen as an attempt to ease these tensions.
07:21And for more on this, let's go across to Karishma Asudhani.
07:23She's been tracking this closely on ground.
07:26Karishma, what are you picking up from your sources?
07:27Well, our U.S. trade representative, Brendan Lynch, is already here,
07:34which you also mentioned yesterday during the release of India's trade data
07:39for the month of August, which, as to the officials, has done well.
07:42We see that there has been a dip of exports from India to the U.S.
07:46by close to, say, $1 billion, which is not good news.
07:50And Lynch's arrival in New Delhi is giving some hopes.
07:54It's a ray of hope and optimism for both the countries,
07:57especially after President Donald Trump and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi
08:02last week shared a tweet of optimism,
08:07where they are looking forward to the trade talks to resume.
08:12However, Abha, let's be honest, sticking points still remain.
08:15It's on India's dairy and agri sector,
08:19which, as per my sources, India is still going to take a strong and tough stance on.
08:24But now another sticking point is our dependence on Russian oil,
08:27which is not being taken very well by the U.S. President Donald Trump.
08:31So today's meeting, which is going to be a one-day meeting,
08:34between both the trade representatives
08:37is going to decide the future course of action for both the countries
08:40when it comes to the tariffs law.
08:44All right.
08:46Now, amid the ongoing trade talks between India and the U.S.,
08:48White House Trade Advisor Peter Navarro has said
08:51that India is now coming to the negotiating table.
08:53Navarro also pointed out that India continues to have very high trade barriers,
08:57a point that President Trump has raised earlier as well.
09:01And speaking on Prime Minister Modi's equation with China,
09:05Navarro said, quote,
09:06I don't think Prime Minister Modi was comfortable standing together with China.
09:13All right, Karishma, thanks for bringing us all the latest on that front.
09:16We've also got Dharmesh Kant joining us this morning from Chola Securities.
09:20Dharmesh, good morning.
09:21What's the market setup looking like to you on this Tuesday?
09:26Yeah, good morning, Aaba.
09:27I mean, the markets are, you know, sluggish and more of a range-bound kind of an activity
09:31is happening as, you know, investors and let's discount the benefits of this GST rate cut,
09:38which is likely to be functional from 22nd of September.
09:42I think right now, market is poised and more poised to see news flows
09:47and better news flow outcome condition to market coming from the U.S.
09:51So, that is very critical for this market to, you know, sustain an inch higher as we trade.
09:56At the same time, with the government did everything which they can do,
10:01be it direct tax cut or, you know, GST rate cut.
10:04At the same time, interest rate cut has also been there to 100 basis point
10:08and likely some more is likely in the offing.
10:11So, this has given a flow to the market.
10:13So, we don't see a big downside in the market going forward
10:16at least for next couple of months.
10:18At the same time, how much upside can be there depends on the deal outcome with the U.S.
10:24That is the type of thing.
10:25So, that is very critical to the market from here on.
10:29Dermesh, I'm just going to move across to market opening.
10:31Take a look at the opening ticks there.
10:33Let's take a, you know, it is sluggish as Dermesh said.
10:3625,106 on the Nifty, 104 is what we're looking at.
10:39Just about, you know, 0.14% higher.
10:43Nifty Bank has moved into the red.
10:45IT marginally up.
10:46There's no major action either way right now.
10:49Let's take a look.
10:50Yeah, IT index 0.2% higher.
10:52Let's take a look at some of the gainers, losers.
10:54Auto, of course, continues to be in focus.
10:57We've got Adani Enterprises looking good.
10:59Bajaj FinServe, M&M, that's seeing about 0.5% gains this morning as well.
11:04We've got L&T, that's up 0.5% Adani Ports.
11:07We just discussed that in great detail.
11:09Lots of positive views coming in actually on a whole host of those Adani counters.
11:13On the downside, Titan, Asian Pains, Nestle, some of the names keeping pressure on the index.
11:19BEL also seeing some amount of moderation coming in.
11:22Let's take a look at the banks.
11:23Most of the financials actually are in the red.
11:26No major cuts, but definitely not contributing to any kind of momentum on the index this morning.
11:31Shell, let me come across to you.
11:33What are you spotting in terms of opening ticks?
11:37Well, Abha, in terms of sectors, I can't take my eyes away from IT.
11:43A mild shade of green across all these stocks, whether it's TCS, a third of a percent higher,
11:50Oracle Financials, almost about half a percent higher,
11:53persistent in the green tech, Mahindra, about half a percent higher,
11:57Co-Forge, Emphasis, all of them are pointing to value buying as far as the broader markets are concerned.
12:05In terms of how the Lyle Street is faring, well, fairly strong on Tuesday.
12:101,600 shares in the green versus 500 in the red.
12:13We tracked 19 indices for our viewers.
12:17About 14 of them are in the green, led by the Nifty Auto Index.
12:22So, no surprises there in terms of all-time highs.
12:26You have Fortis Hospital, which is doing fairly well, now headed towards probably four digits.
12:32You have Muthuth Finance, Gold Financing, doing very well.
12:36Liquor Company, Radico Khaitan, half a percent higher.
12:39And, of course, from the auto ancillary space, we have Asahi India, the company that makes your windshield.
12:45So, all in all, it's a nice opening on the weekly expiry as far as the Nifty is concerned.
12:53Abha.
12:54Okay.
12:55We're clearly very bullish this morning, Shail.
12:58And it's the right way to be optimistic on the market, especially this festive season.
13:02Dharmesh, let me come to you on IT.
13:04Because we've been hearing this from some of our experts,
13:07that perhaps the way to strategize on the IT pack is to actually go in for some value buying
13:12on some of the broader market plays versus the blue-chip names.
13:16What do you think?
13:18Yeah, definitely.
13:19I mean, see, as far as IT companies are concerned, large caps should be avoided.
13:22There can be a few days of bounces up because of the currency depreciation,
13:26which we are seeing, and some news flow surrounding that.
13:28But structurally, they are in a weak basket because there's a huge gap between the recent product launches
13:34by AI-enabled IT companies, and they are still trying to catch up.
13:38And this is so disruptive to see.
13:39Every day, you know, things are changing quite fast.
13:41So by the time they catch up, things change.
13:44However, in mid-cap and small-cap space, they are structural stories which are service-oriented.
13:49So software development services, the companies which are providing, they are the good ones.
13:53They should be, you know, bought on declines.
13:55For example, persistent technologies or the co-force of the licensing IT technologies.
14:00These are the companies which provide IT services for software development.
14:04So even if it is AI or anything else.
14:06So they are the ones, I think, where traction is likely to be there.
14:1020-25% kind of a cagger on the revenue and profitability is expected there.
14:15And those companies should be bought on declines rather than chasing the upside.
14:18So IT is still, you know, not a very clear, clear, you know, upward trending kind of a buy right now.
14:25Okay.
14:26Auto, of course, continues to be in the news.
14:29Darmesh, I want to get your top picks in that segment.
14:31But also hero on the 1,200 crore IPO coming up.
14:35I mean, maybe a bit soon to dissect all the details there.
14:38But just wanted to get your take on the two-wheeler major.
14:41Yeah, I mean, auto-mobiles as such is in a very sweet spot.
14:46And it's likely to, we can see blockbuster numbers in the month of October when the sales numbers are rolled out.
14:52But what we are, you know, more interested in, whether the drift carries forward into November and December.
14:58So that's a catch point.
14:59Most of the auto companies have run up quite well.
15:01Almost anywhere between 20-25% from the lows of, say, May or June month lows.
15:08So 90% of the upside has been captured in the price with related to the valuation factors there.
15:15Still, if somebody is an investor from one-year kind of a perspective, then hero motocop from the entry-level bike segment, which also has a EV play through the subsidiaries.
15:25And mehendara and mehendara, which has both CV, PV and your farm equipment segment all playing out.
15:31And every backdoor factors are a tailwind for this company.
15:35So these are the two companies which we continue to like.
15:37Though near term, we are not expecting much upside, but from a longer term perspective, we see a decent upside of 20-25% from current price levels.
15:48All right.
15:49That's on auto.
15:50Shahil, let me come back across to you.
15:52What else are you spotting?
15:53Any other new highs?
15:54Well, Abha, I think low-priced and high beta items are doing very well.
16:04Look at NCC.
16:05This is a construction company.
16:07The top-traded stock for some reason today, 2.5% higher.
16:11Already 51 lakh shares have been traded.
16:14217 rupees is what the price is in front of us.
16:20And, of course, you have a strong move coming into DLF, 0.2% higher, 777.45.
16:26Canara Bank is doing well, a third of a percent higher at 112.80.
16:31And, of course, a strong move also in Shree Cement, 29.785, 1.7% higher.
16:39All in all, the mood is positive.
16:41Nifty Bank is in the green.
16:43IT index is 71 points higher.
16:45And the Nifty on its weekly expiry, Abha, is moving towards 25.143.
16:51That is a four-week high.
16:53Let's hope it closes above that today.
16:55Abha.
16:56All right.
16:56Everyone is keenly watching out for that level.
16:59And a close above that is supposed to be critical.
17:01Dharmesh, let me actually come to you on some of your top picks in the overall market right now.
17:07You know, there are a whole host of names that seem to be performing well,
17:10even in the broader markets.
17:12Let me get your top picks this morning.
17:13Yeah, so sectorally, we have been positive on different stock for the last two years.
17:21So, in between, there was a year when there was a sluggish kind of a moment.
17:23So, we continue to have a positive bias on that because there's a structural story in the making.
17:29And it's a multi-year structural story.
17:30So, in between, there will be a few quarters where there could be some hiccups.
17:34But net-net, we see it unfolding in a very positive way.
17:38And the Government of India has become a big spender in that sector as well.
17:41So, wherever the Government of India has spender, we are looking at that sector.
17:44And HAL, BEL remains the top picks.
17:46And for mid-cap space, DCX system is what we continue to like in that space.
17:51Infra space is looking particularly good.
17:52Shell just pointed out about NCC, which has won an order yesterday.
17:56And we are seeing a price section there.
17:58But again, I think valuations are comfortable out there, be it NCC, LNT, and the like.
18:03So, these companies will see traction as we move into the second half of FY26.
18:08This space is looking very good.
18:09And the renewable energy segment is looking far better.
18:12So, like NTPC Green, they have just recently commissioned one plant in Gujarat a few days back.
18:17So, things will continue unfolding out there.
18:20And a big profitability jump will be seen.
18:23There were some structural issues regarding allotment and all.
18:26So, those are getting fast-tracked by the Government.
18:28And this will again, always very well for this entire space.
18:32Apart from that, cyclical plays like automobiles and metals.
18:34So, we are sticking to the core economic sectors and where, you know, prime spender is the Government of India and some consumer deliverables in the automobile space where all the tailwinds will play from the consumption side.
18:47So, these are the broader stories which we are sticking to.
18:49Two stocks which we like outside the broader basket.
18:53One is Reliance Industries because of, you know, valuation comfort which is there.
18:58Again, it's a multi-year story in the making.
19:00And the other is Life Insurance Corporation of India, that is LIC, which is fairly reasonably valued when compared to domestic private players.
19:08So, these are the, I mean, plays which we are liking from an investment perspective.
19:16All right.
19:16Let me also bring up MobiQuick this morning.
19:19You know, Morning Show is not complete without at least one of the new listings, you know, from the tech space.
19:24But MobiQuick, let's pull that up for you.
19:27And I think a decent amount of traction.
19:29This is a relatively new listing.
19:31The company, as we all know, is in payments.
19:34So, it's a fintech.
19:35Shell, let's just take a look at the recent performance there.
19:38And, you know, how MobiQuick is placed right now.
19:42It's up about 1.5% in an otherwise, you know, steady market.
19:50Yes, Abha, I think MobiQuick hit a 20% high last week.
19:55And that was because the stock had corrected fairly sharply.
20:00Remember, a year ago, the listing was phenomenal.
20:03And we've seen a price of somewhere like $6.50 on MobiQuick.
20:07But subsequent, there was a lot of profit booking happening there.
20:11But last week has seen value buying emerging again into internet stocks like Payment Gateway, as you mentioned, on MobiQuick.
20:21So, 2% higher at $3.21.
20:23And, of course, MobiQuick is not alone.
20:26You have a movement on Paytm over the last one week.
20:30You have a strong move coming into PB FinTech.
20:33All these stocks have seen money moving into them from traditional IT.
20:38So, all those funds who had lots of strong positions in domestic IT stocks are actually moving towards domestic internet stocks.
20:49Look at Eternal, look at Swaggy.
20:51All of them have done fairly well in the last one month or so.
20:55Abha.
20:55Absolutely.
20:57And that does seem to be a recurring theme that we're tracking here on the show.
21:02I would say, you know, Dhramesh, let me come to you.
21:05I know it's a relatively recent listing.
21:07But any view on MobiQuick?
21:11I mean, it's a relatively recent listing.
21:14At the same time, you know, numbers have to still flow into the profitability part.
21:19So, I think if one has to take a call on this space, so Paytm is relatively more better off when they've seen the part to profitability.
21:27So, we are sticking with that.
21:29I mean, the market leader in the segment.
21:32All right.
21:32It's a clear strategy, at least from Dhramesh, prefers Paytm from that pack.
21:37But interesting.
21:38We'll keep an eye on that.
21:39We'll also keep an eye on Zomato versus Swaggy and continue to bring you the latest on how some of these names are performing and the kind of value they're delivering for the investor.
21:47I think it's been a decent start.
21:49We're going to, of course, keep a track on expiry today and we'll bring you more on that at 3.30 when we're, of course, you know, tracking market closing for you.
21:57But right now, steady start and we're eyeing those critical levels to close above that 25,150 mark at the key technical level and watching out, of course, for the FedMe.
22:08Thanks so much for watching.
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