- 2 days ago
Indian markets are holding firm as better-than-expected corporate earnings and ample liquidity continue to support investor confidence, says market expert.
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00:00good afternoon and welcome to the market closing our collab show between the business today and
00:18india today television channel it's 3 p.m. and we are here to get you all the market closing
00:23action i'm sakshi padra first up let's take a look at what's happening in the corporate as
00:28well as a financial space right ahead of diwali gold and silver have hit record highs on mcx silver
00:39is now nearing the 2 lakh rupee mark per kilogram trading at around 1.92 lakh rupees also 24 carat
00:47gold is now trading at 1.28 lakh rupees per 10 grams in delhi on strong investor demand
00:54rupee rebounds 88 pace to 87.93 per dollar aided by rbi intervention reports also of easing dollar
01:08strength recovering from its previous record low of 88.80 per dollar on tuesday
01:13stock markets rebound after a two-day fall nifty jumps 200 points to now near 25 350 mark cent six
01:27is also up by 600 points at around 82 600 broader markets outperform mid and small cap indices gain
01:34over one percent each real estate and metal stocks also shine reports from sources suggest government
01:45is planning mega bank merger by fy 27 smaller public sector banks will be joining larger banks cabinet and
01:53pmo will be examining the proposal psu bank buzz lifts the index by two percent punjab and sinh bank also
02:01indian overseas bank of maharashtra they're all up by anywhere between four to eight percent today
02:05auto industry sees steady growth in september as per the siam data passenger vehicle sales are up by
02:154.4 percent year on year to 3.72 lakh units two wheelers are up by 6.7 percent to 21.6 lakh units as
02:23well tata also maruti hindi and mahindran mind drive led the sales with compact suvs and sedans
02:30performing strongly
02:31let's trade if we look at how the markets are trading in the last 25 minutes of trade 25 300 is
02:43finally with us in the run-up to dhanderas and diwali you're seeing a broad-based run-up across the
02:49board all the sectors are into the green led by real estate psu banks and also the broader markets
02:55after yesterday's downturn we are seeing smart rebound take place in the markets what are the
03:00top gainers on the nifty today well you have a few nbfc names like bajaj finance leading followed by
03:06bajaj pinserv also nestle and asian paints remember fmcg consumer space also in focus geo financial
03:13services lnt htfc live these are the top movers as far as the markets are concerned a large part of it
03:20are from the banking universe and the nbfc space what's actually dragging today again is tata motors
03:26bajaj auto emphasis tech mahindra remember tech mahindra reported results yesterday it's reacting
03:31to that today access bank also uh you know right ahead of numbers you are seeing some weakness there
03:37tata consumer products dr reddy's these are all the other sectors stocks that are still down as far
03:42as the nifty is concerned what's buzzing in the nifty 500 basket well you do see some names from
03:48within uh you know the basket of auto ancillaries like bharat seats that's up in trade you also have
03:54urban company that's up by about 10 odd percent remember urban company will be very important to
03:59watch out for tomorrow as the share lock-in period ends after a month of getting listed so there could
04:05be some pressure tomorrow tatwa chintan pharma gm breweries are some of the other stocks in the nifty
04:09five hundred basket that are definitely hovering higher ppap automotives is also among the top
04:15movers today let's in fact now welcome our guest on board mr abhinash korak shakar market expert is
04:20now with us on the program abhinashi warm welcome uh good afternoon to you and uh season's greetings
04:26for upcoming diwali to you and to all your loved ones as well finally after days of weakness the stock
04:33markets is also reflecting the festive spirit on d street as well how are you looking at the market
04:39what do we expect up until diwali yeah good afternoon sakshi i think uh you know before i
04:46start uh you know diwali wishes to you all the team members at your channel uh see first of all i
04:52think the markets have been pleasantly surprised by uh you know very good corporate earnings numbers
04:57today i was seeing the numbers from sdfc amc a 25 growth in profit plus a bonus issue i think this is
05:04what the market was uh wanting and i think if you get better corporate numbers in this earnings
05:09season i think that is the trigger which i think has worked uh up till now ahead of diwali uh my sense
05:15is that uh you know i think the markets are now discounted the import tariff issue uh they are uh you
05:21know looking at the fact that it might happen maybe a little later but it definitely will be in favor of
05:25india but i think broadly corporate earnings numbers have been very good i think uh if you look at now the
05:30stream of earnings which have come till now uh broadly they are in line or better than
05:35expectations and i think that is something which has helped the markets so i think if this trend
05:39continues sakshi we could see the markets galloping further and i think liquidity is ample in the
05:44market uh you know most investors like family offices hnis mutual funds they are looking at good
05:50investment opportunities at good valuation so i think you know this trend will continue but i think in
05:55uh in in between i think there could be a little bout of selling because currently you know even as of
05:59now the fis are still on the selling side uh the domestic funds are doing most of the heavy lifting
06:04now so my sense is that it's going to be a stock specific market i think you're going to see better
06:08numbers and the markets giving a good kind of re-rating to stocks which do better so net net i think keep
06:13the approach stock specific as of now the index definitely would remain in a very close range
06:18okay we'll come to your stock specific ideas as well remember viewers we've been speaking to a whole host
06:24of top market experts to guide you through as far as the diwali outlook as well as the next
06:29somewhat outlook is concerned so on business today television in a special diwali edition
06:34my colleagues abha bakaya and siddharth zharabi in an exclusive conversation with sunil singhanya the
06:39founder of abacus asset managers llp has discussed the markets how they have fared through this entire
06:46year full of challenges from global uncertainties to shifting domestic trends
06:50and also he shares a market outlook as to what will drive the sambat uh and the sentiments in
06:56the new year as well stay tuned for that
06:58the past somewhat has been a bit of a challenging year as far as uh the benchmarks are concerned and
07:08returns and we've seen several factors influence market behavior as well as uh investors perception
07:15uh how would you summarize the year gone by and what lessons do you think it holds out
07:20for the coming summer
07:21happy diwali siddharth happy diwali abha and happy diwali to all the viewers uh uh who are taking time
07:32to hear us uh from uh obviously as you rightly said last one year has been uh a sort of uh challenging
07:39year um we have not seen uh too many uh you know i would say positive news flow and it's getting
07:46reflected in the returns also which have been almost flat from a one-year perspective and after a long
07:52time i would say indian markets have wanted to perform some of the global peers is also some of
07:57the other asset classes which are right now in a lot of favor which is gold silver etc but actually
08:03if you see and you go back a little bit i think last uh uh 2020 to 24 was a great period and uh you
08:11know when you have a a good time i think uh people do get carried away investors do get carried away
08:18and somewhere in the in the mid 24 markets had started to get a little bit i would say uh overvalued
08:25and it coincided with the election time and during election time uh you know ordinarily or naturally
08:31you know the economy sort of slows down because you have the code of conduct so no new projects
08:37get launched uh you know politicians government are all busy with the election and i think that is
08:41what we saw september 24 onwards when the economy and the corporate profit slowed down particularly
08:47september 24 was a really bad quarter where corporate profit grew only three percent it also coincided
08:54with a lot of uncertainty in the world we have had multiple small wars including two wars between
08:59israel and iran we have had lebanon syria issues hummus issues small small conflicts in thailand
09:06cambodia azerbaijan armenia and and of course closer home india and pakistan and therefore there has
09:14been a lot of risk on risk of currency movements have been all over the place and one reason why
09:20sort of safe heavens like gold silver bitcoins have been doing well is because dollar movements have
09:27been like crazy you know from 97 98 the dollar index rose 210 and then fell sharply to 96 97 and last
09:37but not the least the tariff thing has been an overhang since january uh which has been almost nine
09:42months and particularly for india 25 percent tariff itself was bad and then we were slapped with another
09:4825 percent so as we speak we are among the two countries only which have a 50 percent tariff and i think
09:54amidst all this uh markets have seen uh i would say uh a bouts of optimism as well as nervousness foreign
10:03flows have moved out of india and to other uh obviously markets which have done well at least
10:08temporarily and i would say it's that in all this uh having a flat kind of a market is not a bad outcome
10:14after four great years but uh there is a silver lining i think both the central bank of india which
10:21is reserve bank and the government are now very very clearly uh you know pushing for growth rbi has
10:28infused more than 10 lakh loads of liquidity into the system the stance has changed from conservativeness
10:34to pushing uh loan growth and as a result growth in the economy the government has also gone on in
10:41overdrive we had one lakh roads of income tax benefits and now one lakh road of ght benefits
10:46obviously this rate cut of 100 basis point would mean that uh emis will lower into that extension 30
10:5140 000 of additional uh funds in the hands of uh crores of indians so it's almost a two and a half
10:57lakh crores of fiscal stimulus so i would say a lot of these uh headwinds have converted into tailwinds
11:03and we are already seeing signs of growth coming up monsoons have been great so rural economy is thriving
11:09i think it's all about just getting this uh tariff thing behind our back uh and we should uh start to
11:17look at the markets with a lot of optimism right coming back to our conversation with uh avinash now
11:25avinash help us understand in the new sambat which are the top two or three sectors that you are getting
11:31extremely bullish about where the money can be made of course this year again like you pointed out the
11:37market had been absolutely flat with stock specific moves definitely helping out in creating some
11:42wealth in the new year which sectors and what kind of stocks are you betting big on uh yeah i think
11:49actually uh one or two sectors which look very interesting and attractive are obviously uh the
11:54gst beneficiaries one is uh the automotive and the auto component space uh we are also looking positively
12:00on uh you know the capital goods and the consumer appliances side and also on the real estate side you
12:06know i think on the real estate side also what we have been hearing is that inventories have been
12:10moving quite simply uh interest cuts have been happening and that definitely is going to help
12:15and plus uh you know technology oriented sectors especially companies which are operating on the
12:20data center side i think there's a lot of action yesterday google uh you know has uh introduced the
12:25first uh ai center in vishakapatnam so that also goes a long way in saying that india is now going to
12:32get a bit of foreign technology here so i think uh within the stocks i think we are positive on mnm you
12:37know we feel that at these levels also one could look at buying the stock for a good upside of around
12:4138 3900 rupees uh on the auto component side we have been telling this talk on your channel quite
12:47frequently shiram pistons and rings again a very well established auto component player from north india
12:53trades at around 2600 i think could possibly see levels of 3000 the next 12 months
12:58and obviously from the north again uh we are positive on anantaraj i think recently they
13:02concluded a qip of thousand north course very strong traction a 300 megawatt capacity on the
13:08data center side and i think you know in the next two years you won't be surprised that the data
13:12center business will actually overtake the real estate business so here i think we could look at
13:16levels of around 775 800 so you know i think there are many more stocks but i think these could be the
13:21key stocks where i think you know in the current markets uh despite the run-up i think these
13:26stocks could be accumulated by investors and they could make a decent risk water okay got that so
13:31those are the kind of sectors and stocks that one could definitely look at since you took the name
13:35of consumer durables also we've seen now what has happened with lg electronics the latest stock from
13:42this space to enter d street a stupendous rally is what we saw on day one and it has continued to move
13:48higher as well how are you looking at this in fact many brokerage houses are even penciling in 1800
13:55plus kind of targets for lg right when it has come into and the focus of lg now to also expand its
14:02foray into the mass segment they've started a new series with 18 000 rupees plus kind of appliances
14:08as well how are you looking at this consumer durable giant vis-a-vis the others and where
14:12do you think is the opportunity no i think as far as lg is concerned i think you know investors can
14:18expect better numbers and some more positive surprises in the third quarter i think for the first time the
14:23company will be making a conference call we'll be talking to the analyst community i think clearly
14:28one could sense the opportunity which is available sakshi and i think you know one should also
14:33remember that few years back you know a company called demart had been listed and after it got
14:38listed everyone knows what happened so i think the same uh you know situation and possibility could
14:43happen with a company like lg because you know the balance sheet is robust uh the cash flows are very
14:48strong it's a debt-free business and the opportunity to scale up in india is quite significant so i think
14:52you know somebody who is looking at the next two years i think could definitely do an sip year
14:57despite the fact that it's traded at a significant premium my sense is that you know you don't get
15:02such opportunities every day so if you've got to build your portfolio and got to bear you know be with
15:07the best i think it's better to do an sip and stay invested for the next two years you could expect a
15:12better result going forward so i think we continue to be structurally positive yeah okay for that
15:18viewers in our series of the diwali conversations with summer 2082 kicking off abha also spoke to
15:24mr ajay shrivastav of dimensioned corporate finance to also discuss the market mood this diwali
15:30and the sectors which are set to shine in the new year let's listen into that as well
15:36where are you looking at within the equity basket ajay is it which sectors because we've seen a lot of
15:41rotation this year well i think nothing new has happened in this country uh except the fact that
15:47the same domestic sectors continue to take the route anything which is internationally exposed
15:52doesn't give you a return whether it is it which has not given any great returns parma has given some
15:57returns but has been muted or played at the end of the day so i think your domestic sectors which are
16:03focused upon select niche areas and i think i'm gonna say select niche is one is auto and second is
16:10engineering and engineering also does phenomenal exports so i think these two segments have been
16:14a very good bulwark we are strong in india good companies all de-leverage companies so auto engineering
16:22and the third category we have always said is good for india is the hospitals and the healthcare
16:26because that's just starting off you know we can't even imagine where this has to go
16:31the income the trajectory so in terms of growth pricing power anybody who's been to the hospital knows
16:37what they used to charge three years back what they charge today so in terms of pricing power
16:41demand local demand scarcity of supply healthcare hospitals will do well and can do well they can't
16:48do well every six months but they'll do well over a period of three years so auto engineering healthcare
16:54and e-com i think these are the four segments that we have divided our portfolio by and large and
16:59there are a few odd stories which may be there but four big segments where we have loaded ourselves
17:04and let's not forget thanks to gold the gold loan companies i think they will do and they are doing
17:09they will do astonishingly well in the next 12 to 14 months and it's a liberal rvi so gold loan
17:15companies will do well autos engineering indian healthcare i think and e-com i think you've got
17:20a fair amount of companies in the portfolios to work with all right so a list of more sectors that could
17:26shine in your portfolio over the new year as well but what exactly is sparkling this diwali
17:33is not equities but is precious metals both gold and silver are noticing unprecedented rally and
17:41levels never seen before even as of today gold is nearly 1.3 lakh rupees per 10 grams silver is now
17:50nearing 2 lakh rupees per kilogram as well several records have been broken in this year alone for gold and
17:58silver over 50 60 even 90 of a move in fact for silver silver has doubled investors money in this
18:05year alone with a hundred percent rally that's being seen in the prices as well how do you understand
18:11this what is the way forward this diwali will you see 2 lakh rupees on the mcx as far as silver is
18:17concerned let's get talking with navneet damani senior group vice president and head of uh research at
18:23moti lalo as well financial services to help us explain what exactly is behind this uh super bullish
18:29run of silver this time around welcome to you uh and thank you so much namir for joining in uh well
18:36help us understand are you able to fathom this kind of a rally that we have seen over the last one
18:41month alone for silver which is outpaced even gold with the kind of rally that we are seeing
18:462 lakh rupees per kilogram i mean i remember just about a month one and a half ago we were just still
18:51talking about one lakh being crossed and it's it's just shot up so smartly how are you looking at
18:56this um exuberance well thank you shakshi for having me on the show and uh as you speak uh
19:03two lakh rupees per kg is largely on the physical side of the market where there is an acute shortage
19:08but on the domestic front if you see the calculated price of silver it's still in the range of one
19:13like sixty to one like sixty thousand which ideally will be the price once this festive season gets
19:18over or maybe once the the exuberance of the demand which is the shortage of demand which is in the
19:22market gets over uh that's about 15 days from now or 30 days from now that's anybody's guess but
19:27definitely this kind of exuberance is not going to last long we've seen that in many cases
19:31and uh over the last one couple of years we've had many shows with you also
19:36where i have been very vocal and very bullish about being positive on silver about one lakh rupees and
19:40one like fifty thousand rupees which both the targets are met and as we stand today the momentum is
19:45uh continuously going up and up and higher it's not the view that you you just said that you know
19:52the large part of this exuberance is also because of the shortage in silver espel can you explain to
19:59our viewers why this shortage has occurred what exactly is happening on ground and you also believe
20:04that once the exuberance of diwali-led frenzy is concerned once this is done we could expect some uh
20:11cooling off on silver prices to 1.7 lakh rupees 1.6 lakh rupees per kilogram that's the level that
20:17you're expecting but what is driving this move what what what shortage is there but there are two
20:22shortages in the market one in the global front and one on the domestic front globally what has happened
20:27is uh the spot market is trading very tight it's trading at a one one and a half dollar premium
20:32to what the physical or what the futures market is generally it's not the case generally the future
20:37trade higher and spot is prevailing at the lower price but we've seen that the the difference
20:41between the spot and the future price went up to as high as three dollars which is not seen in the
20:46last 50 years so that has led to a short-term trigger and lots of uh participants who are unhedged or
20:53maybe who are overheads had to have a delivery inbound to deliver on the exchange on the lbma or on the
21:00comics exchanges to make good their position and that is when the mad rush of silver covering short
21:06covering in silver started which led to the sudden spike in the last one week or so where prices
21:10have moved up by about 14 15 percent as we speak in the last 30 days price are up about 40 to 43 percent
21:16on the international front and roughly around 44 percent on the domestic front now what has happened
21:21on the domestic front we have not imported much of silver in the month of april may june the imports
21:26were pretty shallow but ever since july onwards where prices started to rally etf started to have a bulk
21:32of order because of fomo coming into the market where silver is not an industrial metal not a safe
21:38haven asset but as a financial asset giving about 50 60 percent kind of return so people started
21:43massively investing gold and silver and at the ground level there is no material to have this kind of
21:48delivery that has led to certain spike because of the festive season because of etf buying because of
21:54dhantiras being around the camera and lastly because of shortage of imports these imports are going to
21:59catch up in the next couple of months or so from london from singapore from china and eventually the
22:04the kind of premiums that are prevailing in the market at this point will settle down eventually
22:10but how long is this is going to sustain it's anybody's guess absolutely let me also welcome
22:15back mr gorak sakar who's with us uh you know on the program to help our viewers identify what is the
22:22strategy now i'm sure mr gorak sakar your clients must also be asking on the one hand you have silver
22:28which has doubled investors money in this year alone um you know gold prices which have shot up
22:33near 60 percent in this year alone as well vis-a-vis nifty which is absolutely flat on a year-to-date
22:41basis uh what's your suggestion mr gorak sakar on that so i think uh you know as my uh other guest
22:49mentioned that uh you know these prices are volatile so definitely it's not going to be sustainable for
22:55long but definitely i think the base effect will carry on and i think you know uh we have been
22:59telling our clients to be positive on companies which actually benefit from rising gold prices and
23:04rising silver prices so i think when it comes to silver sakshi i think the best bet is hindustan
23:09zinc clearly this vedanta group company my sense is the second and the third quarter could be
23:14significantly better in terms of uh profitability numbers and in terms of gold i think one can bet on
23:19the gold finance companies you know typically what happens is that when gold prices go up the
23:24loan to value improves and the you know the marketability of gold loans gets a better kind
23:29of a booster shot so i think muthur finance uh manapuram these are companies which i think should
23:34do extremely well in the next one or two quarters and i think clearly uh you know if the market corrects
23:39or if there is an opportunity to buy these stocks at any decline one should look at them as structural
23:44stories because despite the fact that they operate in commodities uh my sense is that gold prices and silver
23:49prices are going to head higher we are not going to see a downfall in the very near term because
23:53most of the global central banks have been buying gold and silver as an industrial commodity the
23:58applications are also going up so net net i think these could be two three stocks that i think one
24:03should stay invested and maybe on any mild correction one could definitely increase their exposure here
24:08okay hold that thought we are going to be discussing more about gold and silver but uh
24:133 30 and we need to focus on the market closing at this point in time 25 328 you can see a 0.7 of a
24:20rally as far as the nifty is concerned viewers you have seen after two to three days of a consolidated
24:26move finally the markets have picked up some pace helping it is the nifty bank half odd percent of a
24:31rally on this one as well it's gone beyond 56 799 as well you can also look at the it stocks that were
24:38helping the move today about half odd percent higher in trade among the heavyweight sectors
24:43that truly moved up along with this there were real estate sectors this was the top moving sector
24:48look at this sharp three percent kind of a move that we have seen psu banks of course like we
24:53discussed already there is a lot of buzz about the psu banks merger that's lifting the sentiments
24:58and 1.6 percent of a rally could be seen here let's also look at the metals that have been shining bright
25:03and of course drawing from the precious metals as well the hard metals index also moved up by one
25:08percent odd as well let me also now talk about the top gainers on your screens now the nbfc majors
25:13bajaj finance bajaj pinserv nestle india were the top three movers here anywhere between three to four
25:18and a half percent kind of a move could be seen there asian paints from the consumer uh space and
25:23of course you can look at htfc live from the insurance basket and trend from the retail space
25:28also reflecting the move on the ground as far as the festive demand is concerned on the losing side
25:33however you had indescent bank tata motors bajaj auto all of these uh stocks that fell down by one
25:39one and a half percent each increases also dragged access bank and hero moto were the other top laggards
25:44in trade quickly coming back to both navneet and mr gorak shakar as well navneet help me understand at
25:49this point in time since you do say that beyond diwali silver prices are going to be actually falling
25:56down we are going to be seeing some cool off take place as far as uh gold and silver is concerned do you
26:00think this is the right time to book profits well if you're a tactical investor you are sitting at
26:07about 70 80 percent kind of returns in silver and that's definitely a good time where it should be
26:11booking some profit but if you're a long-term investor i still expect that silver prices can
26:15give you another 50 percent upside from current levels also so from 1 lakh 60 000 we expect prices to
26:21inch towards maybe 75 77 dollars on the comics and 2 lakh 50 000 on the internet domestic front over the next
26:29couple of years so you stay invested as far as a medium term long term perspective is concerned but
26:34from a tactical perspective this rally is brought a little ahead of itself there's a lot of premium
26:39in the market once this festive bus gets over uh some profit taking maybe time wise or price wise could
26:46be warranted so uh it's a great time to book some profit and take some profits off the table great time
26:52to book your profits but in the long term 50 more kind of a rally can be expected on silver is what what
26:59navneet has said 2 lakh 50 000 rupees is what he's penciling in over the next two years too in case
27:05you're a long-term investor you could be looking at that target for gold what is the target that you
27:09mentioned of need gold is kind of in a another exuberance zone maybe 4 000 4100 is where we lost some
27:18patience and we're not able to fathom the the move that is going on for the last few days uh uh maybe uh
27:24post some consolidation this this is also likely to have some bit of price wise correction or time
27:31wise correction but i expect that uh given that central banks are buying gold and will continue
27:37to add over the next few years the rally is likely to continue towards forty seven hundred dollars and
27:42in best case towards five thousand dollars also which will work out to order one lakh fifty thousand
27:47rupees of the domestic front however that rally is not going to be as fast as what we've seen in the
27:52past for gold so that is going to be a staggered rally where you will see bouts of correction well
27:57you'll see better entry levels and then eventually we'll head towards 4705 levels okay got that thank
28:04you so much davneet and thank you so much mr gorak shakar for being with us on this program uh with that
28:09viewers we wrap up but the gold and silver rally uh can actually continue after some kind of a profit
28:16taking as well five thousand dollars on gold and definitely two lakh fifty thousand rupees as far
28:21as silver is concerned one lakh fifty thousand rupees for gold is the kind of expectation in
28:26the long term there is as far as gold is concerned that's a wrap on the business today show but don't
28:30forget to catch the market opening action tomorrow morning with ababa kaya at 9 a.m
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