- 5 months ago
While the IPO market remains attractive, the overall market sentiment is improving slowly, and investors should not rush in with high expectations.
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00:00Good morning and welcome to market opening on our brand new collab show between Business Today
00:10and India Today TV. It's 9am and we're here to get you ahead of the curve as markets kick
00:15off trading for the day. From the big overnight queues on Wall Street and global markets to the
00:20buzz around corporate earnings, policy moves and stock specific action. We break it all down so
00:26you know exactly what to watch. Stay tuned as we track the Sensex, Nifty and the stories that will
00:31drive the market mood today and catch us again at market closing with my colleague Sakshi Batra.
00:36So we've got you covered. First, let's take a look at what's hot in the corporate and financial space
00:41this morning. The world's largest economy is on the brink of recession. Global ratings agency Moody's
00:48has warned that states making up a third of US GDP are either already in or are at a high risk of
00:54recession. The downturn, according to Moody's, will be seen in job losses and big price rises.
01:04Applicants for US non-immigrant visas will not be able to escape queues in India by booking an
01:09appointment in another country. US had in the past post-COVID period allowed visa seekers to apply
01:15in an American consulate in another country. Indians would often fly to Thailand, Singapore
01:20and Germany to get their visas on time. It's a mega week for IPOs in the stock market with as many as
01:31nine public issues opening for subscription these five days. Three main board IPOs include Urban
01:37Company, Dev Accelerator and Sringar House of Mangalsutra. Excitement is high with the grey market
01:43premiums for the nine IPOs, shooting up to 110%. Customers are king in the auto market as car makers
01:53announce big price cuts after the slash in GST rates. Mahindra has already taken the plunge,
01:58others to follow two weeks from now. Car dealers in a bind as no rules have been released for the
02:03compensation CESS already paid for cars in stock. All eyes will again be on the Ola Electric share
02:13price which has fallen more than 13% in the last two sessions. The company auditor has flagged a
02:18serious internal control lapse in Ola Electric Technologies, one of the company's subsidiaries.
02:23Ola Tech generated most of Ola's revenue last fiscal. All right, let's take a look at the global
02:38market check first. Gold has hit a fresh all-time high surging past $3,600 an ounce. Prices are up
02:45nearly 37% this year after a 27% rally in 2024. Fueled by a weak dollar, easy monetary policies,
02:53global uncertainty leading to safe haven buying and a central bank buying spree. As of mid-2025,
02:59central banks worldwide are holding close to 37,000 metric tons of gold worth about $4.5 trillion.
03:06That's more than $3.5 trillion parked in US Treasuries. So that's for the first time since 1996
03:11that gold now makes up a bigger share of global foreign exchange reserves at 27%, overtaking Treasuries
03:18which stand at 23%. India also has quite a substantial sum parked here and has made that
03:25shift to buying more gold, showing economic stability as well here in India. In other global
03:31news, Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba has quit. He's resigned after election losses. Let's move across to
03:37that story. And some amount of, you know, positivity in the Japanese market this morning because he is
03:45supposed to be a little bit more pro-growth. So there is some momentum picking up there on the
03:49back of that. Cost backlash waited for the US tariff deal before exits and I think I see has seen
03:56as a successor. Markets are reacting positively. Nikkei is up almost 2% in trade. Meanwhile,
04:01on the OPEC decision, the OPEC plus agreed on fresh production hikes from next month. They've
04:07extended a shift towards higher output and have ended years of defending prices. So a minor uptick coming in
04:13there on crude as well. Let me welcome our guest this morning, Chakri Lokpriya, CIO Equities at LGT
04:21Wealth. Joining us, Chakri, great to have you with us. It's Monday morning. Lots of factors at play.
04:26Of course, global and macro factors continue to set the tone. What's your view on the Nifty and Nifty Bank
04:32as we head towards open this morning? Good morning, Abha. Thanks for having me for your show today.
04:38I think, you know, today probably India is on a better wicket as we open simply because of,
04:45you know, slightly more positive noises coming from the US and India on the tariff front. And,
04:51you know, all kinds of negatives at about a 50% tariff have more or less been priced into the market.
04:56So I think, you know, select sectors, which are all the GST consumer, like tires, autos,
05:01metal, steel. These kind of companies are, you'll continue to look positive.
05:08That's right. In fact, slightly more friendly conversations, a friendlier tone coming in from
05:13President Trump when talking about Modi. That was the news over the weekend as well. So some amount
05:18of easing off there. It's a mega week, Chakri, for the primary markets with as many as nine IPOs
05:25hitting Dalal Street over the next five days. Now, we know, of course, that a lot of action has
05:29shifted to the primary markets of late. But from a retail investor point of view, you know, a lot
05:34of these are in the broader markets. Would you be looking at these as safe investment, safe investment
05:40strategies? And are any of these on your radar? And specifically, I would say urban company, which
05:45is the larger one of the lot. You know, urban company kind of, while the valuations are kind
05:51of expensive. Still, they have some amount of business momentum on their side. But this
05:56is a market which, you know, I wouldn't expect, investors shouldn't expect for like, you know,
06:01those big bank type of returns that have seen in the past. And this is a time for, you know,
06:06tempered returns, tempered expectations. And because the overall sentiment while improving
06:12needs to be cautious.
06:16All right. So still holding out on some caution there. I know, Chakri, you described, of course,
06:20a lot of segments on the market that we'll see a boost on the back of, you know, the
06:25latest reforms on GST, macroeconomic factors, positivity now brewing that perhaps the Fed
06:31will cut rates. Are you then looking perhaps more positively at some of those names across,
06:36like you said, real estate, cement, steel, as safer bets, especially as we head into festive
06:40season where everyone's going to be looking, you know, to buy in the markets right now?
06:45You're right, Abai. In terms of, you know, the GST cut has been timely in time for the
06:50festive season. So, you know, whether the automobile companies, the frontline, whether
06:55it's a Maruti, M&M, TVS Motors, or even, you know, the tire companies, clearly they benefit
07:00from any uptick in autos. And whether it is Seat, JK tire, they'll also benefit simply because
07:08the auto, the tire companies, that is, because raw material prices for them have significantly
07:12come down. They're all crude linked. And, you know, oil is down about 15% over the last
07:1812 months. So, you'll have that margin cushion and the valuations are on your side. And therefore,
07:23you know, tire companies and as well as OEMs look good.
07:27Okay. Talking about crude, minor uptick there, Chakri, post the OPEC plus meet, you know, any
07:34caution on that front with regards to crude prices?
07:37You know, given the whole geopolitical tension about oil purchases, and therefore, you know,
07:44I think U.S. and its other allies will ensure that there is an, and OPEC will ensure there's
07:49an adequate supply of oil to keep the oil prices under check at about $60, $65. And also simply
07:57because, you know, we are now going, we are in the U.S., you know, back to school season
08:02where demand for oil is actually quite high and heading into winter. So, therefore, I
08:08don't think oil is really a concern about moving higher.
08:11All right. Great. Let's take a look at the market setup. We're just counting down to open
08:15now. A couple of minutes to go. Already set the tone. Chakri also saying market mood is
08:21going to be positive. Pre-market showing a marginal uptick as well. You know, let's take
08:25a look at what are some of the other stocks in news this morning. We've got BHEL with a 10-year
08:30exclusive MOU with Singapore's Horizon Fuel Cell. So, that stock's going to be in the
08:35news this morning. We've also got Aurobindo Pharma. U.S. FDA has inspected one of its units
08:41in Batchapoli and issued some observation there. So, we're waiting for a response from
08:45Aurobindo. So, that's in the news as well. We've got PNB Housing Finance also in the news.
08:51Let's bring up PNB for you. Board has approved fundraising of about 5,000 crores. So, that's
08:56going to be in focus on PNB. Let's pull that stock up for you as well. Just up a little
09:01bit in pre-open. We've got Zyta's Life Sciences as well. They've completed an inspection of
09:05one of their plants. And the company again has to address some amount of queries coming
09:10in there. Meanwhile, SpiceJet and some news in the aviation space has actually reported
09:14a 234 crore loss versus 158 crore profit. Revenue also fell 34%. So, even though market share
09:25is also slipping for Spice. And in fact, Akasa, it's not listed, but Akasa has overtaken Spice
09:29to be the third largest player in terms of revenue. So, that's the latest in the aviation
09:34market. Lots of stocks and news there. But keep an eye, as Shakri also mentioned, more
09:39importantly on some of those real estate names, cement names, steel names, gold financiers
09:45will continue to be in the news on the back of the kind of uptick we're continuing to see
09:50on gold prices. That's going to be a hot area. Auto will continue to be in the news.
09:54And Ola Electric is the other one that we're tracking as well on the downside specifically.
09:58But these are the segments of the market we've been seeing playing out. And these are the
10:02ones that we're continuing to track this morning. So, let's calm down. We've got just
10:05five seconds to go on opening bell today. And Nifty, a pre-market indicating a gap up.
10:11Let's take a look at what the screen is showing us as we hit market open this morning.
10:15Yes, about 0.3% uptick coming in there on the Nifty as expected. Let's take a look at
10:21the advanced decline ratio. Nifty Bank is flat. Let's take a look at the larger breadth of the
10:26market and really what's moving. Nifty IT is also decent this morning, looking good.
10:31Clearly shaking off any kind of news from Trump, sounding some warning bells for the IT sector
10:37and outsourcing. Nifty consumers steady. We've got financial services about flat this morning.
10:41Let's pull up auto since there'll be a lot of buzz there. Nifty Farmer is up about 0.2%.
10:45Right now, we've got the AutoPak. Yes, looking strong. That segment's looking strong.
10:51And let's pull up some of those individual gainers, some of the top movers today. See
10:55where the action's really trending. Steel, you hit it on the nose, Chakri. It's the Steel
11:00majors right on top this morning. JSW, Tata, 2-3%. Both of them. We've got Wipro up about
11:06a percent this morning. Sriram Finance also looking good. BEL, Dhani Enterprises, some of the
11:11other names that are running this morning and CIPLA. Let's take a look on the downside as well.
11:17Where is some of the lag coming from? The financials are sitting quiet today. No major
11:21cuts, but definitely not participating. And that's what's perhaps keeping the index lower as well.
11:26Perhaps a little bit of marginal profit booking coming in on some of these names.
11:29And also want to pull up Ola Electric for you since we've been tracking that this morning on the
11:34back of that news regards its subsidiary. Let's just see if the company has counter has reacted
11:39negatively to that. It has been trending a bit lower in the last month or so. So some
11:44concerns around that one. Ola Electric this morning is actually absolutely fine. Two and a
11:49half percent higher. So we'll keep an eye on that. Chakri, I want to come to you on Ola
11:53Electric specifically. What is your view there? Because the stock has been trending lower.
11:57Some concerns, of course, with some queries raised around one of its subsidiaries. But otherwise,
12:02this morning, at least it seems to be back on track.
12:04You're right. You know, one, a couple of things. One is Ola has significantly corrected from its
12:11listing. And second is, you know, now more information about battery storage and other
12:17bits of its CV are coming to light. And, you know, once you start ascribing evaluation to that,
12:22kind of brightens the picture. And of course, you know, the things like the current audit do raise
12:29concerns. So I think, I think we should approach it with a bit caution unless we, until we find out,
12:34more about what is the audit query all about.
12:39All right. So that's, that's on Ola Electric. Chakri, when it comes to some of those steel
12:43majors, I'll pull them up again, because you mentioned it this morning and they're top of
12:46the charts right now. I want to get a sense of which ones you're looking at, which ones are your
12:50favorites. You know, what are some of the fundamental factors that you're tracking with regards to,
12:54you know, what's really making it to the top of your list and from the steel pack?
12:58Yeah, sure. Jindal Steel and Power, Tata Steel, JSW Steel, all the front line. They should all do
13:06well for a couple of different reasons. One is the valuations are on their side. They all trade
13:11about five to six times. The second is, you know, domestic demand is picking up. And, and, and third,
13:18you know, domestic prices are at maybe five, six percent discount to international prices.
13:23And on top of that, you know, there are, there is news that, you know, China might curb production
13:29of metals. And if this, all this put together, I think provides you sufficient momentum for these
13:34stocks to move higher. Okay. All right. Some deal buzz this morning as well. We've got Adani emerging
13:41as a top bidder for debt-ridden JP Associates. Vidanta, pardon me, has emerged as a top bidder. Adani has
13:47been outbid with that 12,500 crore NPV offer. So the deal is they're going to pay about
13:534,000 crore upfront and rest over five to six years. So that's the big deal. Let me just pull
13:58up Vidanta as well this morning. And that's Adani for you up about 0.8 percent. What are you making
14:03of this deal, Chakri? I'm sorry. I didn't follow on the deal. So I wouldn't have much.
14:09Okay. No worries there. But that's the, the news coming in. Vidanta right now is actually trending
14:14lower. But they have outbid Adani with a 12,000 crore offer. And that's for JP Associates,
14:20the debt-ridden company. Vidanta is down about 2 percent today at this point of time. So we'll
14:24take a deeper look at perhaps the, you know, the breakup of that deal and what it means for
14:29Adani going forward. We've got tire stocks in the news. Novama on Seat, again, upgraded
14:33as a buy. Chakri also talking about some of those tire names and how they stand to be positive
14:37as well. Let me also focus a little bit on gold and the kind of reaction we've been seeing
14:43on some of those gold financiers as well. Chakri, from the broader markets, you know, given
14:49that retail and specifically on gold, but I'm widening the question in case, you know,
14:53perhaps you don't, you know, you don't want to comment just specifically on this. We are
14:58expecting some amount of a retail buzz given we're building up to festive season. Gold
15:02and gold financiers, of course, top of the list, but we're also seeing the traction across
15:06the board in the broader markets and some of these retail counters. Are you tapping into
15:09that trend at all?
15:12You know, you're right. Gold has emerged as a very important asset class in the turmoil of
15:16the last couple of years, and the gold have hit record prices. And the beneficiary of that
15:21is one is on the financiers, whether it's a Mutut, Manapuram. And these companies, because
15:26they're collateral, their loan-to-values are significantly far more safer loans than they
15:30were, let's say, a couple of years ago. And also now they have sufficient room to lend more.
15:36Therefore, their AEM growth will be stronger. On the other hand, if you take jewelry demand,
15:41companies like Titan are extremely well-placed, because now you're going into the festive season,
15:46and after that, the wedding season. And all these things will further spend, give a benefit
15:52boost up to consumer spending. So I think whether it's a Titan or a Manapuram, you're positive on board.
15:59Okay, great. What about financials? What about financials, Chakri? Let's pull up some of those
16:04names. A little quiet this morning, but within the financial basket, what's your strategy?
16:08What would you be looking at? Would it be some of the smaller ticket, not smaller ticket names,
16:14but the smaller themes like an insurance, a more niche place? Or would it be, you know,
16:18the bigger heavyweights that we continue to bank on?
16:23Financials across board are very well positioned, whether it's the PSU banks, the private banks,
16:28or some of the NBFCs like Sriram Finance. Now, for VVN, and of course, you know,
16:34you mentioned earlier in your show, PNB Housing, the housing companies, again, would benefit from a
16:39further interest rate cut. PNB Housing also has a company-specific issue, rather a positive one,
16:46because they're raising some money, they announced over this weekend, and the CEO change has now been
16:52well-triggered. So I think it'll look to move higher. The valuations are on your side.
16:57PSU banks, again, valuations of SBI, Candra Bank, looking very strong. And consumer uptick,
17:04because of the GST cut, will benefit some of the private banks and PSU banks. So I think
17:10across board is looking strong.
17:12All right, great. Let's take a look at some more brokerage reports. Of course, we've been talking
17:17about steel, and we've got some positive outlook coming in there. Nomura also on Swiggy,
17:22they've started a coverage there on Swiggy. That's a buy call coming in with a target of
17:26550 rupees a share. They're saying that the food delivery business is on a steady profitability
17:33path, and that it will be a key cash engine. So they're actually looking at it quite positively
17:39this morning. So that's Nomura. And I also want to, while we're on some of these new age players,
17:45let's pull up Ola Electric again, because the stock just seems to be climbing this morning,
17:49despite news around that audit. So clearly, either some amount of buying coming in at lower
17:54levels, but the stock today is up about 4%. So Ola Electric definitely won in the news this
18:00opening trade. All right, let's also pull up some other news for you. The U.S. President,
18:05Donald Trump, has said that the immigration raids on a Hyundai plant last Thursday have not harmed his
18:11relations with South Korea, adding that he would look at what happened to the manufacturing facility
18:16in the state of Georgia. In a post on Truth Social, he also asked all foreign companies to
18:21please respect American immigration laws. Hundreds of workers at the plant were detained in a raid by
18:26U.S. authorities on Thursday, stopping work on a plant that is one of the Korean automakers'
18:31major investments in the U.S. So this clearly created, you know, a lot of uncertainty as well.
18:38So that's the latest. Let's listen in, in fact, to Trump's comments on this.
18:44So I'm going to look at that. It's a very interesting situation that took place
18:49in Georgia. And we heard about it yesterday. At the same thing in time, ICE was doing right
18:57because they were here illegally. But we do have to work something out where we bring in experts
19:02so that our people can be trained so that they can do it themselves. Does that make sense?
19:07We have a great relationship with South Korea. Really good relationship. You know,
19:11we just made a trade deal. But I'm going to, I'm going to look at it because I understand exactly
19:16what they're saying.
19:19All right. So continue to make news there for all the wrong reasons. That's, that's Trump for you.
19:24All right. Few other pockets of the market, Chakra. I got to ask you about real estate stocks
19:28because I know you touched upon it earlier, but want to go a little deeper there as well
19:33from a structural standpoint, that's clearly looking positive. The real estate index today
19:37is also higher. We're seeing top movers like a brigade, for example. Let's pull up DLF
19:41and Prestige, see how some of the other names are doing this morning. But talk us through
19:45your theory when it comes to real estate, Chakri.
19:49You know, whether it's brigade or Prestige or even Shroba on the real estate, on the residential
19:54side, they're all looking good for a couple of reasons. One, you know, now with the inflation
19:59expected to come down even more after the GST cuts. So that gives the RBI to cut rates
20:06by an additional 50, 60, 50, 75 basis points, more than what was expected earlier. And when
20:13that happens, and that's going to be likely to be front loaded. And if that happens, then
20:18you know, the cost of buying for real estate would come down. The cost of borrowing comes down
20:23fairly significantly. And that adds a significant boost to both commercial real estate as well as
20:30residential real estate. So whether it's a brigade or Phoenix, who's seeing a good commercial
20:36uptick, or even Shroba on the residential front, I think they're all worth looking into.
20:42All right. Okay, so real estate and, you know, Chakris clearly mentioned, you know, pretty much a
20:47positive call across the board there. Also on some of those housing finance companies from the
20:52financial pocket, that's also looking attractive. Cement, steel, of course, naturally in line with
20:57that entire play as well. Okay, small cap index a little muted this morning. The defense index is
21:02flat. We've got, let's pull up the, some of the buzzers from the broader markets and just take a
21:07look at how market mood is shaping up. Oil and gas index just partially higher right now. Remember the
21:13OPEC plus meet has also, of course, come through and, you know, some amount of an uptick on the back of
21:17that. Adani Power right now seeing some amount of traction. Rajesh exports, Bharat Forge, but it's
21:24the steel majors that are really making news this morning. Steel Authority of India. We've got
21:28Sterlite Tech also moving. PNB Housing, also some news there. Vidhan Fashions, that one's up about
21:332% or so. Keep an eye on the auto index as well that continues to buzz. And Ola Electric from some
21:39of the individual stock movers continues to be a big move this morning as well. So those are some of the
21:44our news makers for you. Chakri, before we wind up the show, let me get just one closing comment
21:49from you as well. We're counting down, of course, to Diwali. It's that time of year. What are you
21:55anticipating on the index? You know, given that, you know, we've found all kinds of negative news
22:01which are priced in, I think if any positive news comes such as, you know, removing an additional
22:06tariff that opens the room for good earnings upgrades and therefore the markets will move much
22:10higher. Even in the current context, I think, you know, the Nifty will move at least 5-7% higher
22:16before the end of this year towards Diwali. And if the Trump tariff additional is 25% removed,
22:22they move much higher. Okay. All right. Great. Chakri, thanks so much for joining us on the show.
22:28That's all we could pack into this edition of the Business Today show. But do stay tuned.
22:31We'll continue to track all the action for you at market closing. Thanks for watching.
22:34We'll see you next time.
22:40Bye.
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