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India’s stock market may be lacking momentum, but select pockets are still offering opportunities, says expert.
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00:00thanks a lot suesha good afternoon and welcome to the business today show where we track the
00:20closing action on the last three viewers but first up let's take a look at what's
00:23hot in the corporate and the financial world markets trade range bound with the sensex
00:31flats near eighty four thousand seven hundred and the nifty trades below twenty six thousand
00:35as the year-end trading remains muted selling pressures are seen in it pharma real estate
00:40sectors however buying interest is clearly being seen in autos metals and psu banks
00:45hindustan aeronautics stock is in focus as drew venji takes flight for the first time in
00:53bengaluru union minister ram mohan naidu flags off hl civilian helicopter marking strategic
00:59expansion into air ambulance and disaster response markets
01:02silver prices rebound sharply on mcx rising 12 000 rupees now to hit 2.36 lakh rupees per kilogram
01:12while gold also has seen some recovery up by 1200 rupees at 1.36 lakh rupees per 10 grams the rebound
01:19follows after two weeks of low international markets a move as well as driven by year-end
01:25profit taking and renewed safe haven demand
01:27India is set to end on 2025 high note with the strong gdp growth low inflation and falling
01:36in unemployment marking a goldilocks moment for the economy supported by strong exports and robust
01:42foreign reserves the government has said it's year-end economic reward is promising all of that
01:51meta is set to acquire chinese ai startup manus for over two billion dollars to enhance its advanced
01:57ai capabilities across platforms the deal also aims to expand meta's ai features through financial
02:02details have not be disclosed
02:13let's straight away look at how the markets are trading in the penultimate day of 2025 viewers we
02:18are seeing a thin volume trade at this point in time so slight choppiness and amidst that markets are
02:23absolutely flat 25 937 even though throughout the course of the day we did see some losses even below
02:28that but the nifty bank is really pulling up the sentiments high now almost half a percent higher
02:34trading strong at 59 207 odd mark but it's the it stocks that have drug dragged lower today about 0.7
02:41odd in fact the last couple of sessions have also seen some it pressure that has continued although the
02:46broader markets also do see some softness in trade but it's the metals that are shining the brightest in
02:51an otherwise weak trader that we are seeing on the markets look at the metal index it's two percent higher
02:56in trade leading from the front as well as shining brightest psu banks follow along with it it's the
03:02autos that are now driving in a faster lane along with this even the private banks that have pulled
03:07up the nifty bank overall higher in trade on the nifty you have names like sriram finance bachaj auto
03:12hindalko tata steel m&m and jsw steel as among those stocks that are winning in trade in the last 20 minutes
03:19let me go across to our guest now ashumadan ji is joining in he's the amd of jm financial warm welcome
03:23to you a warm welcome and uh of course a very happy new year to you in advance uh here's wishing
03:29that you your loved ones and everybody at jm financial really has a profitable year ahead
03:35do help us understand what's the sense that you have by the end of 2025 how is this year for you
03:40in terms of markets so it was a lackluster year uh uh particularly i think calendar year as actually
03:48and uh i think vix says it all one of the historic lows in the vix i have never seen in the past many
03:54years so that clearly shows that it is a clear anti-climax for a calendar year expiry i mean
04:00whether it expiry day or expiry week expiry month expiry year i mean calendar year expiry is such a muted
04:06one which is actually an anti-climax and which is purely visible uh by i mean the historic low in vix so
04:13sakshi i mean last few months ever since every time when people talk about that what is a market
04:20what is your view on the market and etc etc so my mother what is your fear so i said my fear is not
04:26this market is not about tezi mandi the current structure of the market is the lack of interest
04:31that is the biggest damage which has happened in this calendar year uh as a market participant i can say
04:37and that's the reason that we are witnessing vix below 10 which is the historic low i don't think so
04:43in my reasonable uh assumption i mean reasonable uh time frame i have i've experienced this kind of
04:49risk so i think that is a matter of concern and probably as we have been talking charges are 26 000
04:55plus minus 500 again consolidation last few months every time every time we met we said market is in
05:02consolidation so we can still see another six months one year of consolidation everybody is getting
05:07itchy that i mean beyond a particular level crossing 26 000 26 300 27 000 27 000 500 different targets
05:17keep coming so i think anti-climax for this calendar year so next calendar year also so i mean as of now
05:24there is no spark because there are no triggers also if you talk about the macro triggers gst rationalization
05:30is behind us tax reforms behind us tariff news has become stale so i i think the only trigger is probably
05:37budget whether anything happens on in budget or doesn't happen we met after this muted expiry we
05:43met we need we might get some positive trigger in january which should be used again for a profit
05:50right so asha do you help us understand what are you advising then clients to do investors to do
05:55like you just pointed out it was the lack of interest that you saw among investors over the last six
05:59months odd when markets have constantly been in a range and in a boring phase what is the best way to
06:05approach your investments can you still go on to create an alpha in the markets when the index just
06:11crawls to a 10 percent rally in fact on the small caps front people have lost a lot of money 23 percent
06:17of the fall has been seen on the index level this time around so and overall it's it's been a lack of
06:23interest like you say how do you make money in a boring setup even if this consolidation trend has to
06:27continue in the new year so saachi my small answer my short answer would be then when there's a low beta
06:34the alpha also becomes struggling so nobody likes to hear that but as you said that what do you uh i
06:41mean how do you talk to investors i mean i somehow people don't like to hear this this is india or
06:48currently we have become a trading market so we have to treat it as a trading market till the time it
06:53genuinely or actually becomes an investing market till the time it is a trading market so it is
06:58nothing wrong in trading or investing the only thing is the mindset the mindset has to be changed
07:03because last post-covid last two three years the kind of phenomenal too good to be true returns which
07:08have come people have become habitual of those kind of a fancy movement in stocks which are no more
07:13so coming in terms to that reality and realizing that uh i mean for example let's talk about an
07:19next stock which is 30 percent down so from 30 percent down we might see a recovery of 10 15
07:24again from lows it is it has recovered from highs you will not get your price so you have to keep
07:29trading in that stock or probably in the market so as of now for me india is a trading market there
07:35would be green shoots available there would be uh pockets of uh uh i mean sectors where we can invest
07:41also but i think one should be rolling the profits i mean it is still not an investing market that i
07:46i could sleep over my portfolio okay fair point any uh you know forward looking trends that you can
07:53share with us ashaji like in 2026 which are the themes or the sectors that you believe could be
07:58the winning ones that investors can start building on their portfolios with yeah as i've been saying
08:04last two three months that psq banks are looking very good just because of the evaluation and the
08:09kind of consolidation they have undergone led by sbi every time you talk give me a particular stock
08:14they could though we don't talk much about stocks but i keep saying that leader is sbi and psv banks
08:19are looking good metals are still looking good for example i mean sale tata steel they have actually
08:24not performed in terms of the rest of the metal stocks so i think ferrous non-ferrous probably that
08:29is a difference because every every every time we've been talking about saying copper aluminium but i
08:34think it's high time we should see some traction in sale and tata steel also though every time they
08:39elude us that every time they come out with a false breakout level and suddenly gets
08:43uh i mean and goes back so metal still looking good psq banks are looking good there could be um
08:51i mean down and out themes also for example i'm not a great great fan of psu and every now and then
08:56i used to say that pfc rec is and i mean concords of the world are underperforming and they'll keep
09:03underperforming they're in a perpetual sell list because everyone is heavily overbought and 40 percent
09:08and 30 40 percent down but i feel that in some kind of uh i mean semblance is visible in those
09:16stocks also so again we might have some trading opportunities instead of being in the popular
09:22stocks one have to target now the stocks which have not at all performed because actually every
09:28time for a trading market or for a reversal in the market you have to identify those things which
09:33everyone is frustrated about irritated about and there are there are tired bull syndromes and these
09:38are the stocks where i see those kind of a frustration and tired bull syndromes which might see some
09:43recovery and there's an opportunity available so i would refrain from eternals and nikas and all those
09:48of the world which have been fancy and have been talk of the town last year so this year i think the
09:52down and out things could perform for next three months fair point so the down and out stocks could
09:58actually make a comeback in 2026 stay away from the popular stocks that have you know grabbed your
10:02attention all through 2025 that's the word that ashore ji has so stay with that ashore ji we are also
10:07going to be now focusing on the precious metals gold and silver that have dominated the markets in 2025
10:14you know sharply outperforming the equities as a whole debt and even the cryptocurrencies the rally
10:19remains one of the strongest that have been seen in years along with even platinum palladium copper
10:24and to do decode what really lies ahead let's actually bring in another expert to join in on
10:29the panel we have uh sugandha sachdeva founder of ss well street to now be with us welcome to you
10:35uh sugandha season's greetings for the upcoming new year but uh you know you have been of course uh
10:40celebrating all these gold and silver prices rally and now the rallies uh even continuing to the base
10:46metals copper palladium platinum look at all of that it's everything uh you know that's shining bright
10:52but give us a sense for those who actually missed out what do we do in 2026 do we still have an
10:57opportunity yeah hi sashi thanks for having me here season's greeting to you the entire team of
11:04business today and all the viewers and mr ashumidan as well so it's been a landmark year for commodities
11:10especially for silver watershed here we have seen gains of close to 170 in silver historic gains and in
11:17fact gold prices are also shining bright with gains of more than 70 percent so i think this re surge in
11:24silver prices reflects a structural inflection point it is not a speculative spice it is now being
11:31globally repriced as a critical monetary and industrial asset it has taken lead over gold also with significant
11:38gains and if i talk about gains for last five years it's more than two two hundred percent while gold
11:45is also clocking gains of around 168 percent in line last five years so major factors have been
11:51the tariff threat by the u.s president trump in the starting of this year the monetary easing
11:56cycle of the u.s fed geopolitical tensions and the strong industrial demand for silver and supply has
12:02not been able to match up to that if you look at the structural deficit in silver it's been continuing
12:08for last five years in next year also we are expecting a deficit of around 295 million houses
12:14so mine supply has not been able to match up with this explosive demand and add to that a technical
12:21breakout after 46 years of compression silver prices have broken out of the dollar 50 per ounce mark
12:27and there has been an explosive rally that we have witnessed in prices yeah so i think my sense is this
12:33rally is likely to continue further ahead as well at least in the first 2026 even as prices have already
12:40stretched significantly and are prone to some corrections but then i see this rally continuing
12:46at least in the first quarter of 2026 okay do you i'll just take one point here also do you see
12:53somewhere gold and silver the kind of rally that we have seen is it entering into a bubble territory at
12:59all i'll ask the same question to sakanda then uh no no sakshi uh i do not see that it's it's a structural
13:06bull run that we are witnessing it is backed by strong fundamentals we have the backing of strong
13:10industrial demand from the ai data centers from solar panels from electric vehicles the 5g technologies
13:16and the green energy transition of the global world so i think this theme is likely to continue till 2030
13:22and mine supply cannot respond so immediately because silver comes as a by-product of copper and
13:28zinc mines and some of the gold mines as well so even if what about you ashuji do you think that
13:34nifty has a way to return again in 2026 maybe cover up some of the lost ground there and meeting
13:42up with the gains that gold and silver have already displayed or will it be again the shining metals
13:48first of all i mean it is a pleasant surprise to share a screen with sukhanda we have worked for so
13:53long together and it is nice to see her after such a long time and thanks to you so coming back to your
13:59question uh see we are also positive on gold and silver but i think when when uh everyone starts
14:05talking about and those kind of signals are coming where at any level we want to buy because we are
14:10missing onto something then you have to test your patience that is the only thing i mean currently in
14:15the last two three days or four days we're saying that it's just i mean there's no denial that we are in
14:20a bull market of gold and silver and they'll continue to outperform so there could be some sharp
14:25dip which we will witness and probably that is the time if somebody has to enter again that that will
14:29be an opportunity so for that one has to have that kind of patience coming back to nifty yes i as i said
14:35that the green shoots are available we have been tired out since last i mean more than one year
14:42flirting around 26 000 so i think such a 26 300 is a very pivotal level for me once it gets crossed we
14:50might see going towards 27 000 but as i said more than nifty it is the stock so the first time in
14:56last one year i mean i i'm um i'm a contra player in the market and every time i i mean it's a long
15:01shot uh kind of a portfolio which we always as a trading portfolio which we advise advise to the
15:06clients but the first time i i as i mentioned that the stocks which were totally down and out are
15:11heavily overbought and people are i mean stuck badly are i'm finding some silver lining in them so that
15:18that is giving some kind of a positive sign so let's see how things pan out but as i said from
15:23this kind of a vix i mean there has to be generally the vix will be higher and we might see some
15:28strong spurt in the market in january so one has to stay long
15:32gandha um you know if i have to ask you for all those fresh investors what are you telling them
15:36buy gold right now will gold have a chance to again catch up uh with the silver move or should i
15:42continue with silver or maybe leave both and go to the base metals what are you telling clients
15:47the uh samshi i believe both should be a part of one's portfolio uh in fact nps is also now being
15:54allowed to invest into gold and silver etf almost one percent of their corpus will come into gold and
15:59silver etfs so almost dollar 1.7 million of demand will additionally come into these metals so i i see
16:06silver outperforming at least in the near term because the gold silver ratio which has peaked at 107
16:11levels has come down to levels of about close to 58 mark it has even reached its long-term average of
16:1760 to 65 so it is now heading towards 50 which indicates that silver is likely to outperform in
16:23the near term and this ratio we are expecting to test levels of around 38 as well so near term silver
16:30is likely to outperform but then i'm very bullish on gold prices also for the first quarter of 2026
16:35gold prices have been consolidating and there are a lot of catalysts which are still going to drive
16:39prices on the higher end line my sense is that the geopolitical risk the monetary easing cycle of
16:45the usbid and expectations of a leadership change at the fed which is likely to lead to further
16:51infrastructure cuts in 2026 is going to drive prices on a higher end time and add to that central
16:57tanks have been continuing their purchases of gold there is loss of trust in fiat currencies and that's
17:03leading to a hard asset rate so i think this uh trend is likely to continue in 2026 at least in the
17:08first quarter that's the visibility currently um beyond that what do we expect on gold and silver
17:15from here what is the kind of upside we expect so for gold i'm expecting first levels of dollar 4770
17:21and then 4900 per ounce as well in the coming year and in the domestic market we see prices heading
17:27towards one like 85 000 to two lakh mark in 2026 while for silver we are looking at levels of close to two
17:33lakh sorry three lakh mark there would be some corrections on the way uh if i talk about crucial
17:38support areas the first support for silver is seen at two lakh eighteen thousand and then two
17:43lakh one thousand five hundred so we advocate our clients to buy in franchises not in one go because
17:49prices have already stretched so but then if you buy at close to two lakh eighteen thousand also there is
17:54a good upside that you can see from those levels also so overall target is three lakh as of now
17:59three lakh on silver and two lakh on gold is something that suganda expects for 2026 there
18:07could be some corrections on the way but those dips should only be looked at for buying for the long
18:12term gold and silver outlook still bullish thank you so much suganda for being with us on the show
18:17and for highlighting for us where will the money go even in commodities and how will metals shine bright
18:22even in the new year breaking news coming in on your screens right now viewers the first air traffic
18:26data after indigo crisis has actually come in this is the november air traffic data that has been
18:32released remember the november air traffic data is now showing key shifts the indigo market share is
18:39at 63.6 percent versus 65.6 percent it enjoyed in october the spice jet market share is now at 3.7
18:47percent vis-a-vis 2.6 market share that was seen in october remember surprise spice stock also has
18:53zoomed after the air traffic data right now if you look at the stock prices of indigo and spice jet
19:00you will be able to see that indigo has slipped tad lower whereas it's spice jet that has zoomed in trade
19:06remember we are also looking at air india's market share that is now currently at 26.7 percent vis-a-vis 25.7
19:16in october so in comparison the lost ground for indigo has been distributed between all the other three
19:23airlines uh two airlines spice jet and air india that we see at this point in time both of the
19:28other airlines have managed to grab some more market share because of the lost crown that indigo had
19:321.1 percent lower for indigo at this point let me go across to ashore to find out is finally normalcy
19:40returning as is being shown by indigo presentations time and again but what about the opportunities for
19:47investors is the worst behind for the company and the stock price that we have seen what should
19:52investors do see the the fiasco which has happened sakshi i mean though on one hand we say that the
20:00public memory is very short but what has happened in the kind of turmoil people have undergone
20:05i mean it is not to be forgotten easily and suddenly there's a huge shift from indigo to air india
20:11so this uh shift of market share is not justified i mean still not being justified in numbers and i
20:17see that in india gaining more market share in the times to come and it is not about that what has
20:22happened the way they were conducting themselves i mean i i was very vocal about the kind of service
20:27the rudeness the arrogance which we witnessed as a as a uh user from indigo i mean uh so this kind of
20:34things happen and what has happened uh so and it will take a hit on the numbers also this quarterly number
20:39like i know everyone is expecting bad numbers so what whatever will happen i mean there will be
20:46spillover effect in the next quarter also i still don't see that uh 5000 is a good value to buy indigo
20:52we could see uh going much lower also or maybe even if it doesn't go i think as a discipline
20:57one should avoid buying indigo just because it is corrected because of thing because it will have
21:01a far-reaching effect on the company okay ashaji also let me understand from you what we briefly
21:07marked out but it's important for all our retail investors to understand whether there is any need
21:11to rejig their portfolios for all those investors retail investors always have this affinity towards
21:18mid caps and small caps their large portfolios are concentrated with such kind of names uh but this
21:23is the year when we have seen one of the worst uh uh you know kind of uh performances from the small
21:28caps the index is down by 23 odd percent this year so far um you know at least half of the bsc 500 bsc
21:351000 stocks have uh probably ended this year are on course to end this year on a negative note as
21:41well and therefore despite the fact that the nifty is still hovering around its all-time high levels
21:46it's the portfolios that have not really reflected so much how would you look at the mid caps and the
21:51small caps in 2026 will they make a comeback or will you stick with the large caps for the safety that
21:57we need at this point in time in the markets large caps and very select mid caps and uh sakshi last time
22:03also we discussed the rebalancing of portfolio and the churn is very important if you'll keep uh
22:09stuck i mean keep sticking to those that portfolio that i will not book the loss somewhere you are
22:13losing the opportunity also because every time the themes change the sector will change and wherever you
22:18are stuck there would be see as i said the dilemma is my stock is 30 percent down so market has recovered
22:24my stock is now 20 percent so that 10 percent is a notional company is something which will give a
22:30notional comfort to somebody who's holding that but it is still not in profit and at the same time
22:35there will be other sector and stock which has performed 30 40 percent so i i mean you don't have
22:39to fall in love with the portfolio because one one point of time or once sometime it was a uh it was
22:45a delight of uh delight for everyone you have to rebalance your portfolio and churn your portfolio
22:50i don't think so mid-cap and small caps will come see the same silver i mean the same highs which we
22:55have witnessed in the past but in the mid in the meantime there would be many stocks in the large
22:59caps which will outperform so one has to take that hard call to turn the portfolio okay the markets have
23:05shut shop viewers in front of you 25 969 on the nifty right now 27 points higher so we managed to pull up
23:11above the flat line and end the session in the green 0.1 percent higher almost towards that day's high
23:17move that we have seen the markets climb to remember this is the penultimate session of 2025 that we are
23:24looking at the nifty bank definitely supported that move on the higher side for the nifty about 0.55
23:30uptick from there you see the metals the psu banks the private banks the auto sector these are the
23:36sectors that have managed to pull up some gains towards the end of this session but on the other
23:40hand it dragged real estate fmcg oil and gas underperformed today when we look at the names on the
23:46nifty bajaj auto topped the list today 2.3 percent higher sriram finance in dalko tata steel m&m
23:52jsw seal maximum of the winners from the nifty top five or ten names you will see are from the metals
23:58pack in fact in all about 12 watt stocks managed to end themselves into the green but today on the
24:03lagging side you had names like eternal dragging two percent aisha motors down one percent infosys tcs
24:09indigo apollo hospitals aisha motors as among those laggards in trade but that's how the markets have
24:16shut shop let me quickly look at how some of your questions have come in for ashuji now raga from
24:21mumbai has sent our first question for you ashuji this one is uh asking that markets have been
24:28volatile in 2025 so what are the top stocks and sectors to invest in for 2026 if the volatility is
24:33to continue my current favorite is psu bank every time i mean the last two months ever since uh i mean
24:40every time on your show i keep recommending the sba is a stock i mean there was a time when bharti was
24:46consulting rating around 500 and the next vada was 1000 1500 2000 i could see that kind of a journey
24:53i mean i can see happening in sba obviously it will take time it will take medium to long term
24:58so if somebody has to uh hold a stock and feel confident and comfortable i mean less volatile
25:06and probably a very good long long term prospect i think uh then psq banks led by sbi one should uh
25:11invest and hold delivery for long okay the next question is from daisy from goa she says platinum
25:18has rallied tremendously so what are the other ways to invest in platinum apart from jewelry well i wish
25:23asukanda would have been here to answer that but ashuji your uh expert comments there for platinum
25:29i think i think this is the bullion etfs are a good way to invest and uh these are very uh easily
25:34tradable and uh one can have that cpsc etf also otherwise i mean gold silver every every every um
25:42i mean commodity has an etf i think for a retail investor etf is the best way to trade and invest in
25:47this market okay let's take the next question this one is from kushal from pune kushal says gold and
25:53silver have also rallied sharply so should i enter right now or wait for a cool off period since you
25:59just advised that etf is a better way so should one be waiting for a dip to enter or should one
26:05consistently go about it gold and silver again since uganda also pointed out that brief correction
26:11periods may be there but she still expects gold to rally up to two lakhs and silver to rally up to three
26:16lakh rupees as well so that kind of an upside she's penciling in again how would you look at gold and
26:20silver and the opportunities something which we want to buy and we are convinced about the long-term
26:25prospects are positive then i think even in the etfs or direct trading the sip route is best for
26:31example right now gold gold is at 139 which by etfs at 139 also and it goes down by 137 135 sharp
26:38corrections because of global market you've seen what is happening in silver so gold is less volatile and
26:43i mean it would be a better commodity to hold to i mean whether that if you if you're not able
26:48to stand that kind of a volatility so for a retail investor i would say gold etf and every time every
26:54day you should do a sip i mean either ways i mean 139 137 135 131 141 145 even it's going up going down
27:03we should have a target that every week we will have a sip in gold etf that's the best way because
27:08ultimate target when it is higher you'll be able to get the best price out of it absolutely thank
27:13you so much ashuji for being with us on the show and of course it's always a pleasure uh to speak with
27:18you and seek all those insights and we will continue to do so in the new year as well that's a wrap
27:23viewers on the business today show in case you too have any questions about your investments in mutual
27:27funds sips stocks or gold related questions send them to us on the number that's flashing on your screen
27:33and don't forget to join in at 9 a.m tomorrow morning for all the opening action with abha bakaya
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