00:00Well, let's speak more on this with Natia Sescura, who is an Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute.
00:07Natia, thank you so much for joining us on the programme.
00:09So we've been speaking about how Kyiv says it's ready to move forward with this revised plan now.
00:16The latest version, it says, is significantly better than the original US proposal that was put forward last week.
00:23We still don't know what the new terms are, but what do you envision the changes to be?
00:27Well, there has been indeed a lot going on around these negotiations.
00:35And firstly, we've seen the Russia-US 28-point plan, which was extremely problematic from Ukraine's point of view.
00:45And now we see certain shift from Russia-US to US-Ukraine slash European deal.
00:52There is certainly the latest developments are certainly positive because it signals that with European involvement, the US president, the US side is somewhat agreeable to negotiate this plan further.
01:07And we suspect that there won't be a deal for President Zelensky, which is either take it or leave it and lose the American support, which is certainly positive.
01:20But there is a lot to be discussed. And I'm very certainly very sceptical to what extent there can be any tangible process when it comes to achieving any outcome.
01:31Because I do think that the 19-point peace plan, which is much more realistic, is something that Russia would not agree.
01:42Well, the news agency AFP is reporting that the revised plan does provide for Ukraine to keep 800,000 troops like the army has right now.
01:52That's up from the 600,000 limits that had been put in that first draft.
01:57What kind of precedent does it set when you have a term stipulating how many troops a country can have to defend itself?
02:06Well, I think firstly, this was one of the key points in the original 28-point plan.
02:13And this sets a very problematic precedent when one country, and in this case the aggressor, can set the boundaries to a sovereign country when it comes to the numbers of their army.
02:29And Ukraine is in a very, and will be in a very vulnerable position, which would involve that they certainly need to be ready for the renewed Russian aggression.
02:39So this was something that was argued immediately and dismissed immediately by the Ukrainians, and rightly so.
02:48And I do think that Russia should not be given any leverage when it comes to Ukraine's defense and how Ukraine will organize and manage the issues in relationship to their army and the defense of their country.
03:06Well, President Volodymyr Zelensky says that the talks should include European allies who have largely been left out of this process.
03:13Do you think they'll be welcomed at the table?
03:17Well, unfortunately, we saw that Europe was very much sidelined from the initial plan.
03:23The 28-point plan came as a shocking development.
03:26But what we've seen so far is that European leaders have been coordinating with each other quite closely and quite swiftly.
03:36And from previous experiences as well, we can tell that Europeans are somewhat adjusted to the manner of working with the current U.S. administration.
03:49And in this case, I think we see that Europeans are somewhat succeeding in terms of convincing and persuading Donald Trump to have further discussions on this plan, which is a success from the European point of view.
04:05But there is a lot more needed because ultimately this is not just about Ukraine's security and establishing peace in Ukraine, but also about European security, which has been numerously undermined by Russia.
04:18Well, European leaders are being urged to hash out this framework for a so-called reassurance force that would be deployed into Ukraine in the eventuality that the war does end.
04:30How is Russia likely to react to that?
04:33I think it is unlikely that Russia would accept any presence of the European forces on Ukraine's soil.
04:42And this is why I'm very skeptical about this peace deal.
04:46And I don't have high hopes that there will be, unfortunately, any tangible successes when it comes to brokering a deal.
04:53And ultimately, I think we should take into consideration the fact that Russia's main goal is to keep Ukraine vulnerable.
05:04So this is the endgame of Putin to be able to go back to its initial plan in case there will be some sort of peace deal signed right now.
05:14And I certainly don't think that Putin's appetite would be fulfilled by even if the 28-point plan will be achieved theoretically.
05:26I think his ambitions are much more, much bigger.
05:31And this is the reason why we see that there are conditions and demands for coming from Russia,
05:38which involves leaving Ukraine without any tangible protection and defense when it comes to future Russian aggression.
05:47Zelensky has signaled that he wants to meet with Trump to discuss those sensitive points that are still in the plan.
05:53With the momentum that's now building up now, how do you think that meeting will go?
05:59It's extremely important that this meeting takes place soon, given that Trump is seemingly rushing to get this deal done.
06:15And in this case, I think Zelensky has a very difficult task.
06:18And in a way, Ukrainians have already gained experience dealing with Trump administration.
06:24But Trump is extremely unpredictable.
06:26And he seems to change sides quite often.
06:29This is an opportunity for President Zelensky to explain Ukraine's point of view.
06:36And in a way, the positive side is that it is not a done deal.
06:41And we should expect that there will be rounds of negotiations and this process is unlikely to come to its conclusion anytime soon.
06:52Natia, great to talk to you.
06:53Thank you so much for joining us on Prime News Paris today.
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