Ukraine will be in 'a situation similar to that of Germany in the Cold War' after ceasefire

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00:00is planning a second meeting with his Russian counterpart soon after Friday's high-stakes

00:05Alaska summit, this time with the Ukrainian president at the table. The U.S. leader has

00:11repeatedly vowed to bring about an end to the war, but has so far made scant progress towards

00:16brokering a peace deal. Without elaborating, Trump said Russia would face very severe consequences

00:23if Putin did not agree to end the war. He made the remarks after attending a virtual meeting

00:28with European leaders, including Emmanuel Macron and the Ukrainian president, who told the

00:34group that Putin was bluffing about seeking peace.

00:42Several important messages came out of this exchange. The first is that President Trump

00:46was clear that the American will is to obtain a ceasefire at this meeting in Alaska. The

00:53second thing, which the U.S. president was very clear on, is that the questions arising

00:58on Ukrainian territorial matters can only be negotiated and will only be negotiated by the

01:05Ukrainian president. The third thing is the link which must be maintained between any territorial

01:12concessions and security guarantees provided to Ukraine.

01:15I told the U.S. president and all of our European colleagues that Putin is bluffing. He's trying

01:25to put pressure before the meeting in Alaska along all parts of the Ukrainian front. Russia is trying

01:31to show that it can occupy all of Ukraine. Of course, this is their desire. I told my colleagues,

01:37the U.S. president and our European friends, that Putin definitely does not want peace. He wants the

01:43occupation of our country, and we all really understand that. Putin will not be able to

01:48deceive anyone. We need further pressure for peace, and not only American, but also European sanctions.

01:56Well, for more on what's at stake ahead of this summit on Friday, we're joined by Scott Lucas.

02:01He's a professor of U.S. and international politics at the Clinton Institute at University College Dublin.

02:08Scott, thanks so much for being with us on the program this evening.

02:12So, Donald Trump then, he's being urged not to unilaterally strike a peace deal

02:17with Russia to end the war in Ukraine on Friday. What do you think he's actually going to do at that summit?

02:26What Donald Trump has just said in the past hour is that he is going in the expectation that this will

02:35just be a first meeting. In other words, that he won't be agreeing to any deals, he won't be agreeing to

02:40the Kremlin's terms, and that there will then be a second meeting, which will include Vladimir Putin

02:46and Vladimir Zelensky. So, that seems to indicate some success by the Europeans to pull him back

02:54from simply falling into Vladimir Putin's pocket on Friday. Similarly, the White House has been

02:59emphasizing that he is going there in listening mode. In addition to that, what Trump has said is he has

03:06repeated that the necessity is for a ceasefire, which again is the Ukrainian European priority,

03:13and he has said that if Russia does not negotiate, there will be serious consequences. Now, that's all

03:20well and good, but we know that Donald Trump listens to the last person in the room. So,

03:25will he maintain this line on Friday when the Kremlin has its opportunity to try to spin him,

03:31to try to manipulate him, and probably equally important, which other officials will be there

03:37to try to ensure that Trump doesn't flip back towards Russia? Will there be a number of officials

03:44in that meeting, or will it be, as in the past, just Trump and Putin one-on-one with only translators?

03:50Yeah, and we saw last time they met back in 2018, Donald Trump appeared to be completely dazzled by

03:56Vladimir Putin when they met. So, that is a real danger in European eyes and in Ukrainian eyes as well,

04:03heading into this summit.

04:06I think you've heard that from every European leader this week of consequence. You've heard it

04:11from Emmanuel Macron. You played some of his statements today after the call with Trump.

04:15You've heard it from Friedrich Merz of Germany. You've heard it from Donald Tusk of Poland,

04:19George Maloney of Italy, the UK's Keir Starmer. You know, leader after leader has been expressing the

04:26line, as Tusk puts it, of hopes but also concerns. They know that Trump is unpredictable. They know in

04:332018 he caved in to Putin and even chose the Russians over US intelligence services. Now, it is

04:40seven years later. It is also a Trump who has been very frustrated in recent weeks

04:45that Russia will not accept a ceasefire and that it is killing Ukraine's civilians,

04:50something he mentioned again today. So, he may have a different attitude here. But yes, I think

04:56we cannot assume that this very good work, excellent work by Vladimir Zelensky and the Europeans,

05:03has locked Trump in to taking a line for Kiev security. There's still the danger that he can be swung on

05:09the day. You know, and despite also what's happening, you know, this kind of pressure that's

05:13being placed on Donald Trump, why do you think, Scott, Russia would actually agree to a ceasefire

05:20when it is actually, even this week, making advances on the ground in Ukraine?

05:23Well, Russia's not going to agree to a ceasefire. That's not why they played their last card,

05:30which is this face-to-face with Donald Trump. What they're doing is two things. One is,

05:36they were on the defensive because of Trump's threat of not only sanctioning Moscow,

05:41but their trading partners, like China and India. So, they needed to push that threat back. And they

05:47have done so. You know, the deadline came and went for those sanctions last Friday. Now they want to

05:52get Trump to repeat their ultimata, including the seizure of more than 20 percent of Ukraine,

05:58keeping the rest of the country weak and demilitarized. But, and let's be cautious here,

06:02Russia's not making rapid advances in the East. There's been some media overreaction

06:08to some Russian probing operations in the East. They have not, after more than a year,

06:15taken a town in Donetsk they've tried to attack. That's just one example. But the

06:20Kremlin's going to try to present that if there is not a settlement, we will conquer Ukraine militarily,

06:27and they hope that Trump will give way to that PR line.

06:30And do you think that at the end of the day, it is inevitable that Ukraine is going to be forced

06:34to cede some of its territory?

06:37Well, I think what's interesting, and I've known this actually for months, but we've had

06:43Vladimir Zelensky come out and effectively confirm this, is that the ceasefire will involve the freezing

06:50of the front lines. Now that means in the short term, Russia will hold the territory that it occupies

06:59in parts of the East, Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, and in parts of the South, Zaporizhia and Kherson.

07:05But there are two key lines here. The first is that Russian occupation will not be legally recognized as

07:12Russian annexation of the territories. And secondly, there will be this ongoing support for Ukraine to build

07:20itself up politically and economically. We will be in a situation similar to that of Germany in the Cold War.

07:29That while some territory, East Germany, was under Soviet influence and was so for 40 years, the rest of

07:36Germany was supported economically, politically and militarily, where it became a founding member of

07:42the EEC, now the European Union, a member of NATO, and one of the leading countries on the continent.

07:49That, I think, is what Ukraine envisages, that they'll have to accept short-term occupation,

07:53but they will be part of Europe, a Europe which actually will be progressing and be stronger as Russia

08:00struggles economically and holds territory, which basically it is burned to the ground.

08:04What then should Donald Trump be focusing on as he heads into these talks? And what will he,

08:09in fact, be focusing on during the talks, do you think?

08:15You know, if I was advising Donald Trump, and I'm not, I would say check your ego at the door.

08:23Listen, don't overreact. But we know that Donald Trump doesn't check his ego at the door.

08:29Trump has very little knowledge of what happens in Ukraine. He has very little

08:34knowledge of what happens in Russia. He's not really a specialist on military or diplomatic

08:39measures. He is a politician who responds to his interest and to his feelings. So the hope here is,

08:45is that Europe and Vladimir Zelenskyy have gotten Trump focused on his feelings,

08:51that Russia is the aggressor. And that even after Vladimir Putin does his best to say that Russia is

08:56the victim here, Donald Trump will remember, no, after almost 42 months of a full-scale invasion,

09:03Russia is the aggressor.

09:06And do you think whatever is agreed on Friday, as you say, it kind of depends on who the last person

09:12is that Trump has been speaking to in terms of what might influence him, but whatever is agreed,

09:17how likely is it that it will lead to a lasting outcome?

09:21Well, this is important. Nothing can be agreed on Friday. You know, nothing can be agreed on Friday,

09:28because even if Donald Trump accepted all of Russia's ultimata, you know, to carve up Ukraine,

09:35to keep much of Ukraine weak, you can't make that deal because Ukraine's not there and its European

09:42partners are not there. And that's the point they've been making throughout the week. So if the worst case

09:46scenario comes out, that Donald Trump folds, as he did in 2018, to Vladimir Putin, even if Donald

09:54Trump goes back to insulting Vladimir Zelensky, this will not be a deal. It simply brings us back

09:59to where we were earlier this year, where given Trump's cutoff of assistance to Kyiv, Europe and

10:05the rest of the international community had to step up its support for Ukraine. And that, I think,

10:10should be our focus. Do not expect a deal on Friday. The best we hope for is that we get Ukraine

10:16and Europe taking the initiative for a ceasefire. But in a worst case option, this is not lost.

10:21This is not something that can be imposed on Ukraine and its partners.

10:25Scott, we'll have to leave it there for now. Thanks again for joining us on the program.

10:29That is Scott Lucas, Professor of US and International Politics at the Clinton Institute

10:34at University College Dublin.

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