- 2 days ago
ITL breaks down why the AFC South is suddenly up for grabs — the path, the confidence level, and what absolutely has to happen for the Texans to take it.
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00:00The AFC South is up for grabs, ladies and gentlemen.
00:02If that's, if that's, I think that that was our takeaway this weekend.
00:05Especially with the Colts losing a football game versus the Kansas City Chiefs.
00:10In overtime, it was 23-20.
00:12It was very, very close.
00:14But the way that they looked in that game is really the big thing for me.
00:18That offense did not do things, and then it also fell off a cliff from not being all that good
00:22to being putrid in the second half of the game versus the Kansas City Chiefs team.
00:26And you are now two games back of those Colts, and you have two games against them.
00:31The Jags, they have a game on you, but you look at them, and they can lose some games in there.
00:36They do have a relatively easy schedule.
00:38But with that being the case, what's the path?
00:39And what's your confidence level in what the Texans have a possibility to do?
00:44What are the keys to getting the Texans to the playoffs and to the AFC South champions?
00:48We've talked about this.
00:49I've mentioned it to you guys.
00:51Hell, it's a promo right now.
00:52I think this team with this defense can beat anyone, anytime.
00:57No one really, quote-unquote, scares me.
01:00But there are some paths that maybe look a little bit more plausible,
01:04and certainly there are some things that the Texans have to do in order to get these wins
01:08and get there, whether it's wild card or held division.
01:11You know what?
01:12Before we even get there, there are a lot of folks listening to us right now.
01:15It's a slow week.
01:17It's kind of a dead week.
01:18People are out of school.
01:22Parents are knocking off early.
01:24They're going out on lunch right now.
01:25Let's lay out what everything is in front of the Texans,
01:29because some people might have just heard about it.
01:32So basically, the Texans control their own destiny, really.
01:37They do.
01:38They do control their own destiny to some degree, in part because of what I said.
01:42You will play the Colts twice.
01:43And so there's a two-game difference between your schedule or between your records
01:48because the Texans are 6-5.
01:51The Colts are, what, 8-3, right?
01:54So if you manage to win both of those games,
01:57let's just take that to both teams having eight wins, five losses,
02:02and then in that instance, obviously this isn't how the schedule goes,
02:05but just looking at the standings,
02:07that would have you also having the tiebreaker having beaten them twice.
02:10Right, so that would put you above them.
02:13And in the NFC West remaining opponents,
02:16the Colts still have the Seahawks and the Niners.
02:19Those are both tough opponents.
02:20Seahawks more so than the Niners, but still tough,
02:22especially now that the Niners have Brock Purdy back.
02:24Texans have left the Cardinals and the Raiders.
02:26Well, they're playing the Raiders, I should say.
02:28But they're playing the Raiders, which is another soft sort of non-division game.
02:34They just fired their offensive coordinator.
02:36They gave up, by my count, it might be more, 27 pressures, 28 pressures.
02:44How much more?
02:45That's Max Crosby and them.
02:47How much more than Neil Hunter and Willie Anderson Jr.?
02:49Yeah, so that's one.
02:50I wanted to kind of lay it out before we get into the path.
02:53And then the Jaguars, in a weird way, you can say might be almost as scary
02:57in terms of what they could maybe do.
03:01If they weren't so damn dopey as a team, they'd be really scary.
03:06Because what's the remaining of their schedule?
03:07They have the Titans twice.
03:09Cupcakes?
03:10In fact, the Titans might be trying to lose.
03:12The Titans might be on tank command mode, right?
03:15The Jets.
03:16Jets are not trying to lose.
03:17They just don't know how.
03:18They're not real good.
03:19Yeah, offensively, they're not good at all.
03:21And just like you, they faced the Colts twice.
03:25And they also have the Broncos.
03:25So something's got to give within those.
03:27In fact, it might be helpful if they go ahead and split those,
03:30neutralize each other, and then allow the Texans,
03:33hopefully, to do some more catching up.
03:36Because the Jags are a little dopey, but they are good enough,
03:39especially if the Colts aren't playing all that well,
03:42and if the Colts have indeed given us, or if the Chiefs or what have you,
03:47have indeed given us some level of game plan of how you neutralize
03:50the Colts' offense.
03:50So I wanted to do that and mention this.
03:52If you just look at the schedules, forget what the records are,
03:55respectively.
03:57The Jaguars probably have the advantage.
03:59Without question.
03:59The advantage.
04:00The easiest schedule.
04:00Right?
04:00Yeah.
04:01So that's the layout, in case anybody was wondering.
04:04So confidence level, I think it comes down to the same things.
04:07First of all, the defense confidence is off the charts.
04:10Yes.
04:11They're in their stride.
04:12Yeah.
04:13It's off the charts.
04:14They can beat anyone.
04:15Comes back to C.J. Stroud, man.
04:17Comes back to C.J. Stroud.
04:19You had three wins with Davis Mills.
04:20What are you going to get from C.J. Stroud?
04:22Whether it's rust, whether it's mastery of the offense against a better opponent.
04:27As much as the Colts weren't overwhelming, they're better than what Davis Mills faced.
04:32Discipline.
04:33Discipline in the offense as well.
04:34So that's the path.
04:35The thing that I wonder confidence-wise the most is the thing that I talked about going
04:40into this Bills game that I was worried about was that they were going to be overcommitted
04:43to the run.
04:45They ran the ball incredibly well versus the Bills, but that's to be expected.
04:48The Bills are one of, if not the worst run defenses.
04:50The rest of the way, they're not great.
04:52I think you're dealing with some kind of average to mediocre run defenses, but none
04:56of them nearly as bad as what the Bills are.
04:58And so the question I have is how much commitment should they have to the run?
05:02Because you can't just entirely throw the baby out with the bathwater when it comes
05:05to running the football.
05:07But I also don't think that they have enough of a pass game or a quick pass game to supplement
05:12what you miss in being able to run the football.
05:14So you have to do it to some degree.
05:15I just wonder what the balance is and if they can figure out that balance of running the
05:19football, because I don't know that you can just try and run into a brick wall and think
05:22that that's going to work.
05:23I agree.
05:24But I also think that's part of the reason you should be even more confident with this
05:27defense.
05:28We mentioned the Raiders.
05:29Their offensive line is a mess.
05:31The Cardinals have regressed.
05:32The Cardinals' offensive line has not been good.
05:34And the Chargers.
05:36Well, they've just dealt with injuries.
05:37Yeah, they've got injuries.
05:38Both of their starting tackles done for the season.
05:40And Rashawn Slater, who they lost early, early, early.
05:43And then Joe Ault, who they lost a few weeks back.
05:45Right.
05:45And then the defense.
05:46I've talked about it.
05:47I've said this a number of times on this program.
05:49I don't know what to expect from their defense.
05:51It is just so finicky and up and down.
05:53So, like, again, there's wins on the board there if you can come out and, one, the defense does
05:58what they do, which is to be expected.
05:59If the offense can find some way to be relatively consistent, and this is where the key that
06:05I have been thinking on.
06:06Yeah, what's your path here?
06:07Not even a path, but just like a key, because I don't think this specifically is a hit this
06:11one to two to three.
06:13I think continuing to develop Jaden Higgins is a key to them making this happen.
06:17What you saw in that Bills game was an early seedling of what I imagine this could be.
06:25And this is what you were hoping when you drafted him, right?
06:27Oh, you get somebody else on the other side.
06:29To make it so that teams can't lock in on Niko.
06:31It hasn't quite been that to this point.
06:33In fact, White is probably being, is carrying some weight there.
06:36It hasn't been there.
06:37It's been Niko Collins and then all these other dudes.
06:40In fact, Dalton Schultz has probably been the next closest to that, kind of just eating
06:44away at the middle of zones and things of that nature.
06:47What we started to see from Higgins, being able to create separation and routes and being
06:52somebody that when that defense shades over to Niko, that the quarterback could easily
06:56just go, all right, well, we're going over here.
06:58I think that is huge.
06:59If they continue to foster that and he's able to, you know, learn to, hey, in this moment,
07:03got to get your toe down.
07:05In this moment, just go ahead and run that route.
07:07Just run into space as opposed to worrying about that route in this moment.
07:10If you pick up more of those things, now you have, I'm not going to go so far as calling
07:14a two-headed monster.
07:15That'd be insane.
07:16But now you have the opportunity to give secondary looks to defenses where they're still going
07:21to look at Niko Collins, but maybe they start respecting Higgins and that gives Niko a little
07:25bit of space.
07:26Or maybe you just have an opportunity to go, Higgins, go get 80 yards in this game because
07:29they're so focused over there.
07:31And we can create explosives, which they don't do nearly enough in this game.
07:35We could pick up third and mediums or third and longs more consistently because you're doing,
07:41you have that capability and you have that explosion.
07:44So I think that's going to be a huge deal to help them be more consistent in picking up
07:48third downs, be more consistent in moving the football, and just managing and playing
07:52a little bit of complementary offense for defense.
07:54Yeah, no, I think that's more than fair.
07:56I think another key for me, and again, with this defense, you know, anybody is beatable.
08:03But the Colts offensive line and the Colts run game in particular is something that I
08:09think is going to be very, very key for this Texans defense.
08:12Keep in mind, James Cook was running the ball, you know, before things really went your way.
08:18And that's Jonathan Taylor, and that's a really good offensive line.
08:21And, you know, Daniel Jones or no, you know, they protect him enough and they run the ball
08:25a lot.
08:26The other offensive lines, I mean, we just mentioned, you know, Raiders and Chargers
08:29and Cardinals, you know, struggles.
08:31The Texans are going to dominate.
08:32I think this game and the flex game, I'm going to go ahead and call it now.
08:36Week 18?
08:37Yeah, week 18 will probably be flexed.
08:39So, I think those two, with the offensive line versus what this Texans defensive front
08:43can do, I mean, that's it.
08:44That's going to be the key.
08:45And the scary thing is, yes, if you can shut down Jonathan Taylor, you make them really
08:50tough.
08:50They still have some really solid wide receivers.
08:52And so, the thing I think about is the committing of resources.
08:56Are you going to have to have a lot of eyes looking into the backfield?
09:00And does that at all change your ability to defend, especially with quick players, like
09:05even someone like Ashton Doolin, but obviously you've got Pittman, who is solid, Pierce, who
09:11has been really good at, you know, attacking teams over the top.
09:14Are you capable of balancing those things?
09:16And I think I'm getting to a place where I feel a little bit better.
09:18Even Aziz playing really good, you know, defense when he gets out here in coverage, or at least
09:25significantly better than what you had previously expected from their linebackers.
09:28I think that that is encouraging.
09:30But yeah, that's going to be the real test for me, is seeing how those things pair.
09:34Another kind of key is, what are you going to see in development from one Jane Reed, right?
09:43Jane Reed.
09:44Because is he going to get more burn, or is that just going to, are we going to get Petrie
09:47back, and then you're going to have Miles Bryant, and that's going to be it.
09:50But that second safety spot, I think that there's going to be opportunities for teams to try
09:54and test you to some degree, is that spot going to hold up, you know?
09:58Yeah, no, so we're talking about the Colts here, but just over the course of the remaining
10:03games, you know, clearly the Colts, two games against the Colts, are going to be so, so big.
10:09But if you just make hay on those other ones, Kansas City, the Sunday night game, I don't,
10:14they don't scare me.
10:15You know, they came back and played good defense against the Colts in that game.
10:20Colts were up 20-9, and then they just got shut, you know, shut down.
10:23But the Chiefs' offense was not great for a long stretch in that game, and if the Texans
10:29can take some advantages of that, you know, I say they don't scare me, and then they're
10:33going to end up losing, but that's the way it is.
10:35Yeah, that seems to be the way it goes, doesn't it?
10:37That's the way it is with the Chiefs, but they don't.
10:38They don't.
10:39Primetime at night, though.
10:40That's the part of it that I'm very intrigued in.
10:43On the road.
10:44That's another reason why the Thursday night game was cool.
10:46I know that, you know, I don't know how much, especially in that building, they should subscribe
10:50to the things of this nature, but that's a primetime game where you actually delivered.
10:54You haven't had very many of those on the record for the Texans that you can lean on.
10:59If for no other reason, then I think that sometimes with a coach, you can decide what's important
11:05to you in ways that you appreciate or that are beneficial to you.
11:09If you haven't been good at primetime, that's not a thing that matters.
11:13If you have something that you can point to that says, we do well in this, now's the time
11:16to pump it up.
11:17And I do wonder if D'Amico Ryan said, look, we can play well in primetime, so we need
11:22to do that against the Chiefs.
11:24But I think that that's going to matter a great deal because not only is it primetime, it's
11:28outside in the cold in December, right?
11:30Like, I do think that there's instances where that could cut into especially special teams.
11:33And actually, when you talk about keys, I think that's a big one.
11:36You've got to stop being leaky on special teams.
11:38Oh, boy, boy, do you.
11:41Colts are a really good special teams team as well.
11:44I think, you know, I wrote it down earlier because it jumped out off the page with me.
11:48I think they're leading the league in net punting, which means translates into longer fields for
11:54your offense, which you don't want longer fields for your offense.
11:57No.
11:57They're also among the league leaders in kickoff returns.
12:01That's been leaky with the Texans.
12:05What's that?
12:05Like, two kick returns in the last three weeks, a punt return touchdown and a kick return
12:08touchdown on Thursday.
12:10Yeah, that's something that it can't be that, right?
12:12Like, I understand that that's not much in the way of an answer, but I don't think you
12:16need answers.
12:17I think you just need to get it done, right?
12:19Like, be in your lanes, be gap sound in your rush lanes or in your kickoff coverage lanes
12:25or what have you.
12:25But it just can't be big returns.
12:29It can't even, like, clearly touchdowns it can't be, but it can't even be big returns.
12:32Like, it can't give these teams good field position.
12:34Right, especially with these, you know, the way this defense wins games.
12:37And then the last thing that maybe is a path, maybe is a key, I just think it's going to
12:42be good.
12:43And we haven't really seen this all year long.
12:46You're going to see the same offensive line two weeks in a row.
12:48Go figure.
12:48Yeah, that's a big point.
12:50Go figure.
12:51We didn't talk a lot about that just yet.
12:53But yeah, having some answer as to who we believe is going to be on that offensive line
12:58consistently.
12:59No introductions in the huddle.
13:00Yeah.
13:00Hey, my name's Titus.
13:02What's your name?
13:02Trent?
13:03Jared?
13:03Jared?
13:04Okay, Jared.
13:04I remember you from last year, right?
13:05Yeah.
13:06Cornbread on the YouTube makes a good point.
13:08I did not mention Tyler Warren with the Colts.
13:10Oh, yeah.
13:10He's a very intriguing dude.
13:12And tight ends is one of those things I think historically we think of as scary.
13:16The numbers don't quite bear it out this year.
13:17They've been actually pretty solid against tight ends.
13:19But he's a good one.
13:21So that's going to be an interesting...
13:22He makes key plays.
13:23Going to be very...
13:24Obviously, we're not quite looking at this game yet, just rather intentionally.
13:29But there's an opportunity, but there's definitely some ground to traverse for your Texans in
13:34order to get...
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