00:00The American Farm Bureau Federation just released its annual survey showing what families can expect to pay for the holiday meal.
00:09So the survey looks at prices for turkey and other favorites like stuffing.
00:13Oh, I totally forgot about stuffing when we were talking about sides.
00:15Sweet potatoes and pumpkin pie.
00:17Joining us now is Samantha Ayoub.
00:19She's an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation.
00:22And what a fascinating equation to have to come up with.
00:25I'm looking forward to seeing the results.
00:27Thanks for joining us here this morning.
00:29Are you getting hungry?
00:32Absolutely.
00:32It's right around the corner.
00:34Yes, a week away.
00:35All right.
00:35So your new survey shows just how much the average Thanksgiving dinner costs this year.
00:40What are the biggest changes from last year's market basket?
00:44So the total price of our Thanksgiving basket this year to feed 10 folks is $55.18, which is actually down about 5% from last year.
00:53Now, it's important to note, of course, this is not all encompassing of everything you might put on your family's table.
00:59But some of the classic staples that most families are going to bring into their ingredient basket this year.
01:04And it's driven largely by large declines in the main event turkey and pretty much anything that has wheat or flour go into it.
01:12Turkey prices have been a major talking point.
01:16How much higher are they this year?
01:18And how has the avian influenza affected supply?
01:23So we actually find that turkey prices for specifically frozen turkeys, which most families are buying and hopefully putting out to defrost by now, are down about 16% for last year.
01:35About $24.50 for a 16-pound bird or $1.34 per pound.
01:40This is pretty surprising when you consider the impacts of avian influenza or HPAI, as that does still continue to affect our turkey flocks around the country and pretty much all of our poultry flocks.
01:53But consumer demand also continues to decline for turkey specifically.
01:58And so many stores might put things on sale to help families afford their turkey this year.
02:03Oh, my God.
02:03I can't believe people are nixing the turkey for Thanksgiving.
02:06I got to know more about that.
02:07All right, you kind of touched on this.
02:08Despite the impact of the bird flu, do you expect there will still be enough turkeys available for, say, people who are hosting and have not yet got their turkey yet?
02:17As this is, you know, the main event for turkey farmers as well, it's the main market for turkeys all year in the U.S., many grocery stores are contracting months out in advance to ensure that their stores have enough turkeys for family going in.
02:30And so most have been delivered, go by now, should have turkeys.
02:35And in the summer months, HPAI or avian influenza really kind of dies down like the normal human flu and should be good going into Thanksgiving season.
02:46All right.
02:47Beyond turkey, how are other Thanksgiving staples like potatoes, bread, pumpkin pie mix price compared to last year?
02:56Any surprises for shoppers?
03:00And that's probably really where your bill is going to go up this year is in your side dishes.
03:05They've really pushed actually your grocery bill away from turkey and more heavily on those side dishes, which some people might argue is actually the star of the show.
03:12But those produce prices specifically, as you walk through the produce aisle, are probably going to be pretty high this year.
03:18That comes pretty twofold from higher production expenses to grow those products, as they tend to be very labor intensive to produce, have high input costs, as well as natural disasters.
03:29I'm sure we all heard about Hurricane Helene last year.
03:31North Carolina produces the majority of the nation's sweet potato crop.
03:35Sweet potato casserole is a common in many households.
03:38And so those crops were really impacted by natural disasters last year, which, of course, limits the supply that we have going into Thanksgiving season on some of those crops.
03:47That tying in back to our job here, you really brought it full circle.
03:51Bernie and I were both surprised, right, with the sweet potatoes there.
03:53And, of course, we all know the damage from Hurricane Helene.
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