00:00So according to US and China readouts, the Taiwan issue didn't come up during the APEC
00:06summit between Xi Jinping and President Trump. Is this unusual?
00:12It is. I think that in most summit level meetings, the Chinese side raises Taiwan.
00:20We certainly know that Xi Jinping raised Taiwan when he met with President Biden in the fall of
00:262023 and when they met in Bali the year before that. There had been a lot of media that had
00:34speculated that President Xi Jinping would in fact raise this with President Trump.
00:41So why did you think that this wasn't even mentioned or it was mentioned but neither
00:47side wanted to make it public? I think it was probably not mentioned.
00:52And again, I can only speculate. We don't know. Maybe the Chinese are somewhat less concerned
01:00about US policy toward Taiwan because over the last few months, we have seen the Trump administration
01:10make some decisions that seem to prioritize Beijing's interests or maybe put off some of the things that
01:21they were doing with Taiwan. The meeting was only about one hour and 45 minutes.
01:26Maybe they just ran out of time. But it does look like the two leaders will meet next year,
01:32maybe in April. And I wouldn't be surprised if Taiwan is raised then.
01:36It's interesting because after the summit, just during the 60 minutes interview, President Trump was asked
01:44what he would do if China makes a move on Taiwan. And President Trump said it's a secret. Is the US back to
01:56strategic ambiguity? You know, what is the Trump's policy on Taiwan?
02:02In my view, the United States never changed its policy of strategic ambiguity. Although I would caveat
02:11that by saying that there is no US document that says that our policy is strategic ambiguity. The United
02:19States just has not made clear since it established diplomatic ties with the People's Republic of China in
02:261979, whether or not it would come to Taiwan's defense. Because of course, before that, we had a mutual
02:33defense treaty with Taiwan. So we left it ambiguous. And that was interpreted by people outside government
02:40as a policy of strategic ambiguity. So that's my interpretation. But I think it is very interesting
02:47that President Trump is reluctant to say anything about whether or not the United States would defend
02:55Taiwan. However, he continues to say that Xi Jinping knows what he would do. He knows what the
03:03consequences would be. And then he claims that Xi Jinping has told him that as long as you're
03:10President Donald Trump, I will not come to, I will not attack Taiwan, as long as you're in control.
03:17But do you think the Chinese side actually said something to him that they would not attack Taiwan
03:26when he's the president? I highly doubt it. I don't think that anybody in China's leadership
03:37would say that as long as President Trump holds the presidency in the United States that China will not
03:44use force against Taiwan. China has never taken force off the table. They haven't done so temporarily or
03:51for a longer period of time. I think this is just President Trump trying to shape the narrative and
03:57shake the conversation.
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