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00:00This is a story about God playing dice with the universe,
00:04something Albert Einstein told us he didn't do back in 1926.
00:08Einstein was criticizing physicists' theory of quantum mechanics.
00:13Yet, a century after Einstein's denial,
00:16billions of dollars are being invested today
00:18in taking that theory and turning it into reality,
00:22with the prospect of a revolution in computing
00:24potentially larger even than generative AI.
00:27Quantum computing is very high potential.
00:31Investors are increasingly asking us
00:33about the implications of quantum computing.
00:36Quantum computing.
00:38Quantum computing.
00:39Political and state-level economic supports to develop quantum,
00:43and we want to be part of that.
00:45IBM is one of the companies leading the charge in quantum computing.
00:50At IBM, we developed some of the very foundations
00:53of quantum information science, starting as early as 1970.
00:56Jamie Garcia is the director of quantum partnerships at IBM.
01:01A PhD chemist, she's working on quantum computers transforming healthcare
01:05at places like the Cleveland Clinic.
01:08Quantum computers are just a totally different paradigm
01:11to calculate solutions to problems.
01:14And so what most, you know, experts have done today
01:18that are studying quantum computing for different application spaces
01:22is to really sit down with the math and figure out, like,
01:25are the algorithms here that I can use
01:28and that I can exploit using a quantum computer
01:30going to bring me any sort of advantage
01:33over what can be done today
01:35in classical sort of state-of-the-art techniques?
01:39At the core of classical computing are bits,
01:43single pieces of information that can have the value of zero or one.
01:47But quantum technology relies on qubits,
01:51a unit that can have multiple values simultaneously.
01:54It's like holding a coin in your hand that is heads, tails,
01:58and everything in between until you open your hand to check.
02:03Physicist Jerry Chow is IBM's director
02:05of quantum hardware system development.
02:08Really fundamentally, there's a different math, right?
02:10It's the mathematics of quantum mechanics
02:13that is governing how you actually manipulate these quantum bits,
02:19which then gives rise to a whole host of different opportunities
02:24for algorithms and types of problems
02:27that you can actually solve using quantum computers.
02:28As we're studying things today,
02:31we're using a lot of something called error mitigation
02:34as our approach to dealing with errors and noise in the system
02:38and in the quantum computer itself.
02:40This is going to continue to evolve.
02:42In fact, we think that next year,
02:44we're going to see examples of what we call quantum advantage,
02:47which is where you're able to come up with a solution
02:49to a problem that is cheaper, faster, or more accurate
02:53than with classical alone.
02:55A turning point in IBM's efforts
02:58to make quantum computing a reality
03:00came when it made it available to the world on the cloud.
03:042016, the IBM quantum experience
03:06was really a pivotal moment for us.
03:10In terms of getting quantum computers
03:12for the first time out onto the cloud
03:14and into the hands of anybody, really, people, right?
03:19What's interesting is that before that period,
03:21I'd say it was really much more in the realm of physics, right?
03:26That we were doing experiments on small devices,
03:30qubit devices that we were looking at,
03:32understanding how they worked, trying to make them better.
03:36But we didn't have any kind of real thought about
03:38how is this going to be used for computation?
03:41In the nine years since you put quantum experience up there,
03:44what have you learned at IBM?
03:47I think what I learned from that experience really was that
03:50there was a whole lot of people out there
03:53who wanted to touch and learn about quantum.
03:56I think we were sitting there that first night
03:57after we launched it,
03:58watching these circuits coming in
04:01and people were actually running things.
04:02And we were like, oh, wow,
04:03this is picking up some steam here.
04:05And then, you know, to this point,
04:07we've had tremendous uptake in terms of using the platform
04:10to actually generate new papers and research.
04:14Thousands of papers have been generated,
04:15which would have been impossible for us to do
04:17just as individual scientists or researchers
04:20studying these devices in our own lab
04:22and working with other scientists in collaborations.
04:25And in success,
04:27that community could go places that classical computing,
04:30even using the large language models of AI,
04:33could never take us.
04:34So it's not just speed,
04:36it's actual accuracy.
04:37When we're using classical,
04:39no matter how infinite we get,
04:41it's an approximation.
04:43Right, absolutely.
04:44It's absolutely not just,
04:45not a question about speed.
04:47The whole point of the quantum computer
04:48and what it can do is that it can give us the ability
04:51to actually get potentially more accurate results,
04:53also get results that otherwise are unattainable
04:56using a classical computer alone.
05:00Companies like Google, Microsoft, and Intel
05:03are all exploring the potential of quantum computing.
05:06But there's also a new group of contenders,
05:09startups, that are betting it all on the hope
05:11that quantum tech will one day become profitable.
05:14One of those firms is Maryland-based IonQ.
05:17Its CEO is Niccolo Demasi,
05:20who believes he has the best horse in the race.
05:23We supply quantum computers
05:25to our both federal, state,
05:29and commercial customer partners.
05:32We also provide quantum key distribution,
05:35and we do that both on the ground
05:36and up in the heavens.
05:38Quantum key distribution is effectively
05:39quantum cyber security.
05:42And we're very focused on this not being
05:44just proof points in the lab,
05:46but doing useful quantum advantage examples
05:49for our customers and embedding ourselves
05:51into their workflows on an ongoing basis.
05:54So what will it look like
05:56as we go beyond showing so-called quantum advantage
05:59in the lab and embedding it
06:01into real-world workflows?
06:03One place people look to first
06:05is in the life sciences,
06:07work like Dr. Garcia is doing
06:09at the Cleveland Clinic.
06:10An example of something that we've done
06:13is we've taken some of the algorithms
06:15that we've worked on for chemistry.
06:18And alongside Cleveland Clinic,
06:19we've started looking at different chemical processes
06:23that they really care about.
06:25So you can think about this in the larger context
06:27of therapeutics, design, drug discovery,
06:31that kind of thing.
06:32And really what we're doing with Cleveland Clinic
06:34is pushing the boundaries of algorithm development,
06:38methodology of using quantum computers,
06:41again, in concert with classical computers,
06:45to come up with solutions to problems
06:48that they care about.
06:49Protein folding is definitely one area,
06:52mRNA, secondary structure understanding,
06:54how things like come together
06:56and how they look in sort of 3D
06:59is a very interesting area,
07:01as you can imagine,
07:01as you're trying to understand
07:03how these things fit together
07:05in a biological system.
07:08It isn't just life sciences
07:09that could be revolutionized
07:11by the addition of quantum computing.
07:13Financial markets
07:14are another target of opportunity.
07:17IBM scored an early advantage this year
07:19when HSBC said it used
07:21the tech company's Heron quantum processor
07:23to make a 34% improvement
07:26in predicting how likely a bond
07:28will trade at a given price.
07:30I think there's a lot of excitement
07:31in the market space as well, right?
07:32Especially because optimization
07:35optimization is certainly in another area
07:37which we know is a classically difficult problem.
07:40And from the point of view
07:42of actually using a quantum computer
07:44to address optimization,
07:45there are many threads there
07:46in terms of leveraging
07:48this kind of large exponentially
07:49computational space
07:51to handle problems
07:53such as portfolio optimization, right?
07:55Or risk management, right?
07:57So there's a lot of interesting ideas there
08:00that are being looked at
08:01by various financial institutions.
08:02What I can say at this stage is
08:04portfolio theory, options, pricing,
08:08these are very much now accessible
08:10from a quantum advantage perspective
08:11using our new Tempo system.
08:13Quantum key distribution and cybersecurity,
08:16that is, of course,
08:18front and center for financial services
08:20on a global basis.
08:21And so security and integrity
08:22of the data flow is, of course, vital.
08:25I always like to jokingly say
08:28that you can spot
08:29our quantum security customers
08:31because they are not in the news
08:33for data breaches.
08:35Even agriculture could benefit
08:37from quantum computing
08:38in ways we haven't yet imagined.
08:41Understanding processes
08:42such as nitrogen fixation
08:45to make things like better fertilizer,
08:47right, to help us grow better crops,
08:49right, understanding things
08:51that are critical
08:52in impacting climate change, right,
08:55in terms of how carbon is handled, right,
08:58other things, including better batteries,
09:02right, in terms of materials discovery.
09:05The potential may be great,
09:07as are the investments being made,
09:09but when can we expect to see
09:11these potentially dramatic results?
09:13It turns out that that depends
09:15on whom you ask.
09:17IBM has made getting to quantum advantage
09:19in the real world a strategic priority
09:21and has a timeline of getting there
09:24in a big way by 2029.
09:26Our roadmap really shows the detail
09:29in terms of how we want to get
09:30from today to 2029.
09:32In between, we have this real important milestone
09:35also that we believe that with the community
09:37we'll be hitting quantum advantage, right,
09:39where there'll be some problems
09:41and claims of advantage
09:43where we'll see quantum really
09:45surpassing any classical methods
09:48of solving certain types of problems, right,
09:51and we are looking at various ways
09:53of showing that academically, scientifically,
09:56and also empirically from the ground up
09:59in terms of compared with various kinds
10:01of classical methods today.
10:04And then we're building a lot of the,
10:05it's, you know, in the end,
10:06it's like architecting a large skyscraper.
10:09We're building a lot of the foundational elements
10:12so that when we hit Starling in 2029,
10:16all the applications that people have been developing,
10:19all the software stack,
10:20all the eventual software libraries,
10:23they're still going to work,
10:25but they're going to work on a machine
10:26that's even more capable,
10:28something that can run hundreds of millions
10:30of gate operations
10:31compared to several thousands of gate operations
10:34on the advantage level machines
10:36that we're building today.
10:37IBM says it's on track
10:39to have quantum computing payoff
10:40in a big way by 2029.
10:43But IonQ's Demasi says they're already there.
10:46So our machines we announced on September 12th
10:49at our Analyst Day
10:50are 36 quadrillion times more powerful
10:53than anyone else's machine.
10:56And that gap is increasing.
10:58Not only do we believe we are five years ahead
11:00of anybody else in the quantum computing business,
11:03whether it's government programs,
11:05adversaries, or commercial companies,
11:08but we also have the lowest unit economics.
11:11So we're able to build a fully fault-tolerant
11:142 million qubit system
11:15and keep our cost of goods solds
11:18under $30 million.
11:19Taking that together,
11:20it means that we're a fully-fledged
11:22quantum internet solution.
11:24We can provide our customers a platform
11:26of computing, cybersecurity,
11:29networking, communications, and sensing.
11:31And there's no other company
11:32in the history of the world
11:33that's ever able to supply
11:35a complete quantum internet.
11:37Everyone in the quantum business
11:39seems to agree that Einstein was wrong,
11:41that it's either coming soon or is already here,
11:44and that it will be big.
11:47But figuring out who's ahead in this race
11:49sometimes feels like predicting those dice.
11:53IBM says it's ahead
11:54because it has more total qubits in its machines.
11:58IonQ says it's not the number of qubits,
12:00but the number of algorithmic qubits
12:02putting it in front.
12:04And quantum company Quontinuum
12:06has yet a third measure of quantum volume.
12:09Maybe we shouldn't be surprised
12:11that there isn't a single measurement.
12:13It's like those qubits
12:14that are both ones and zeros
12:16at the same time,
12:18until they're observed.
12:19And it looks likely
12:20that we will all be able to observe
12:22what quantum computing can do for us
12:25in the very near future.
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