00:00Let me open this up. Joining us here on the reduced track this evening is Amitabh Tiwari, political analyst and founder of VoteVibes.
00:07We also have Sajjan Kumar, political analyst. Good evening to both of you. Thank you very much for joining us.
00:13What's very clear, looking at what's been happening the last 24 hours, if it's anything to go by,
00:18this is going to be a very, very high-stakes election in Bihar, which is why there's so much thought politics that's playing out right now.
00:26Mr. Amitabh Tiwari, I'd like to focus first on the NDA, where it seems what's got everyone riled up in the JDU is Chirag Paswan.
00:36No, essentially, of course, if you see, because JDU's seat tally is declining from 115 to 101, that is 14 seats,
00:45while BJP's is declining by 9, 23, and the other smaller parties also by 6 seats.
00:52And JDU and LJP always have had not a great relationship because LJP feels that JDU is responsible for the decline in their clout
01:04because Nitish Kumar created this separate Mahadalit category.
01:08And also, in 2020, it was very clear that because of JDU contesting separately and targeting only in the,
01:16or rather the LJP contesting separately and targeting only the JDU, it lost close to 33 seats.
01:23So, all is not well within, or there is a trust deficit between JDU and LJP.
01:29And that is what we are seeing when we are not getting clarity regarding a press conference.
01:34Also, the smaller allies like HUM and RLM, they also feel that since RLM represents 4% of population community,
01:45which is Kushwaha, and even HNM or rather HUM represents almost 3% of population in terms of the Manji community,
01:55then why with Paswan community with 5% population is getting 5 times the seat of what HUM and RLM is getting.
02:04So, that is also creating some sort of discontent within the allies.
02:09And I think we are likely to see some friendly fights in both the alliances, which is NDA and MGB,
02:16because things are very late now.
02:18Second round of nominations have already started.
02:2117th is the last day, and we don't have clarity on seats for both the alliances.
02:26It's surprising that we still don't have clarity.
02:29But I'd also like to bring in Mr. Sajjan Kumar.
02:31Before we talk about the Bahagat Bandhan, just about the NDA, Mr. Kumar,
02:35it's not a good look for the alliance.
02:37The fact that, you know, there was this big bang announcement that at 4pm today,
02:40there will be a press conference where all of the questions about seat sharing will be answered,
02:46where the deal, the formula will all be put out in play, in full public view.
02:51And then one hour before that press conference, it's called off,
02:55and clearly there are still differences to be settled.
02:58It's not a good look for the NDA right now.
03:00Do you also think, and that's one of the flashpoints we spoke of,
03:03that, you know, the communication within the Bihar leadership of these parties is wanting right now?
03:08Yes, well, primarily between LJP, Chirag, Paswan, and some of the JDU leaders,
03:16and that has been into the backdrop of 2020.
03:19But mind it, compared to 2020, BJP is now in a, or has the leverage,
03:25you know, to commensurate the incommensurable position,
03:28because prime contention is not about the number of seats.
03:31Yes, all the allied, primarily Upendu Kushwa and Jethan Amaji wanted more seats,
03:36but mind it, in 2024 Lok Sabha election, Chirag, Paswan, delivered five out of five.
03:41So therefore, at least there is a rationality to the more number of seats
03:45if you take six assembly per Lok Sabha election.
03:48So that way, it's rational.
03:50Where the crucial difference is about which seat, which party is going to contest?
03:55Because mind it, Chirag, Paswan, is trying to reward the loyalists
04:00who stayed with him when the LJP was divided,
04:03and Major Chung shifted to his uncle, Pashupati Paras.
04:07And that time, JDU also is allegedly played, was accused of playing a role.
04:12So that way, rewarding the loyalists, be it about the party president or media in charge, etc.
04:17And that way, there is a strong contention.
04:19And JDU leadership also has a history of some sort of bitterness,
04:24vis-Ă -vis LJP, and therefore you find this sort of logjam.
04:27But my hunch is that BJP central leadership has the leverage to reconcile it,
04:35and therefore something that was supposed to be announced today,
04:37perhaps can be done by tomorrow or maybe day after.
04:41Compared, if you see that to the rival Mahagatwandan alliance,
04:45wherein Congress' hyper-assertiveness, despite not having a ground presence,
04:51is creating some sort of incommensurable position.
04:55Because be it about phase, be it about number of seats, be it about which seats,
05:00you see in NDA camp, compared to 2020, things are still almost resolved,
05:05except some minor hiccups and hitches.
05:08So I think BJP central leadership has the leverage about deciding which it goes.
05:13So maybe you will see some sort of bargaining and some rewards,
05:17besides the number of constituencies.
05:19You know, as far as the NDA goes, the sense one gets is that how many is taken care of,
05:25but who gets what, that's where there's a couple of sticking points that they're yet to iron out.
05:30But talking about the Mahagatwandan, since Mr. Sajjan Kumar also spoke of that,
05:34Abhitap Tiwari, do you think, and it looks like one of the issues that's coming up right now,
05:39is that the Congress is not willing to openly say that we endorse Tejasvi Adhiv
05:43as the CM face of this alliance.
05:46Do you think there'll be a change of heart in that?
05:48What do you make of really what's played out in the courts today
05:51and how much that will impact what the Congress does?
05:55No, essentially, of course, the Congress, which had the lowest strike rate in 2020,
06:01is not willing to budge to contest a lesser number of seats.
06:05I think 50 to 55 would have been an ideal number.
06:08They're talking of 60.
06:10Yeah, also considering the fact that if RJD contests on less number than 150 seats,
06:17it weakens the prospects of the alliance.
06:19What happens is that when smaller parties contest, like the VIP or Congress, etc.,
06:27the vote transfer of the core vote block of RJD to these candidates or these parties does not happen in a similar way.
06:35So now you also have a VIP, which is not trustworthy and is complicating matters.
06:40Because of the addition of VIP and then LJP faction, then IPP, JMM, etc.,
06:48these have reduced the pool which the Mahagadbandan has.
06:51Correct.
06:52And that primarily hit is going to come from either the Congress and or the RJD.
06:57So if you look at the performance of the Congress, it has not won more than 35 seats in the last three elections.
07:04At least once.
07:05There are just 35 seats which the Congress party has won in the last three elections.
07:10On the leadership issue, I think the Congress is bargaining for seats as well as a deputy chief minister post
07:17or any other candidate because without naming him as a deputy CM,
07:22they will not be able to extract mileage from the Dalit community or the Ravidas community,
07:28which also accounts for almost 5% of the seats.
07:32And this corruption allegation also perhaps Congress foresees that corruption allegations could weaken Mahagadbandan's prospects,
07:40especially among the young, educated and middle class voters.
07:43Because you will need voters from NDA to switch to Mahagadbandan.
07:48And these swing voters may not necessarily like the dynasty politics of Mulu family
07:55as well as the corruption allegations which have been levelled against them.
07:59Now, interesting, interesting times ahead.
08:01Amitabh Tiwari and Sajjan Kumar, thank you for joining us with your perspective,
08:05your view on what's really happening.
08:08Hopefully, in the next 24 hours, we'll see some seat-sharing deal being finalized
08:12by the NDA or the Mahagadbandan for that matter.
08:14You never really know because both sides right now are still continuing their negotiations,
08:19their talks, ironing out all differences.
08:22We're going to continue getting you all the updates coming in from Bihar.
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