Bihar Polls: NDA Rift Deepens, JDU-LJP Standoff Stalls Seat-Sharing Deal

India Today

This special report unpacks the high-stakes drama in Bihar as election nominations commence, with both the NDA and Mahagathbandhan alliances struggling to finalise seat-sharing deals. The primary conflict within the ruling NDA is the deep-seated rift between Nitish Kumar's JDU and Chirag Paswan's LJP, stemming from the 2020 elections. As political analyst Amitabh Tiwari states, 'all is not well within or there is a trust deficit between JDU and LJP and that is what we are seeing'. The report examines the reasons for this, including LJP's alleged role in JDU's 2020 losses and discontent among other allies like HUM and RLM over seat allocation. Meanwhile, in the opposition Mahagathbandhan, the Congress's demand for a significant number of seats and its perceived hesitation to fully endorse Tejashwi Yadav as the CM face are creating major hurdles for the alliance ahead of the crucial polls.

Transcript

00:00Let me open this up. Joining us here on the reduced track this evening is Amitabh Tiwari, political analyst and founder of VoteVibes.

00:07We also have Sajjan Kumar, political analyst. Good evening to both of you. Thank you very much for joining us.

00:13What's very clear, looking at what's been happening the last 24 hours, if it's anything to go by,

00:18this is going to be a very, very high-stakes election in Bihar, which is why there's so much thought politics that's playing out right now.

00:26Mr. Amitabh Tiwari, I'd like to focus first on the NDA, where it seems what's got everyone riled up in the JDU is Chirag Paswan.

00:36No, essentially, of course, if you see, because JDU's seat tally is declining from 115 to 101, that is 14 seats,

00:45while BJP's is declining by 9, 23, and the other smaller parties also by 6 seats.

00:52And JDU and LJP always have had not a great relationship because LJP feels that JDU is responsible for the decline in their clout

01:04because Nitish Kumar created this separate Mahadalit category.

01:08And also, in 2020, it was very clear that because of JDU contesting separately and targeting only in the,

01:16or rather the LJP contesting separately and targeting only the JDU, it lost close to 33 seats.

01:23So, all is not well within, or there is a trust deficit between JDU and LJP.

01:29And that is what we are seeing when we are not getting clarity regarding a press conference.

01:34Also, the smaller allies like HUM and RLM, they also feel that since RLM represents 4% of population community,

01:45which is Kushwaha, and even HNM or rather HUM represents almost 3% of population in terms of the Manji community,

01:55then why with Paswan community with 5% population is getting 5 times the seat of what HUM and RLM is getting.

02:04So, that is also creating some sort of discontent within the allies.

02:09And I think we are likely to see some friendly fights in both the alliances, which is NDA and MGB,

02:16because things are very late now.

02:18Second round of nominations have already started.

02:2117th is the last day, and we don't have clarity on seats for both the alliances.

02:26It's surprising that we still don't have clarity.

02:29But I'd also like to bring in Mr. Sajjan Kumar.

02:31Before we talk about the Bahagat Bandhan, just about the NDA, Mr. Kumar,

02:35it's not a good look for the alliance.

02:37The fact that, you know, there was this big bang announcement that at 4pm today,

02:40there will be a press conference where all of the questions about seat sharing will be answered,

02:46where the deal, the formula will all be put out in play, in full public view.

02:51And then one hour before that press conference, it's called off,

02:55and clearly there are still differences to be settled.

02:58It's not a good look for the NDA right now.

03:00Do you also think, and that's one of the flashpoints we spoke of,

03:03that, you know, the communication within the Bihar leadership of these parties is wanting right now?

03:08Yes, well, primarily between LJP, Chirag, Paswan, and some of the JDU leaders,

03:16and that has been into the backdrop of 2020.

03:19But mind it, compared to 2020, BJP is now in a, or has the leverage,

03:25you know, to commensurate the incommensurable position,

03:28because prime contention is not about the number of seats.

03:31Yes, all the allied, primarily Upendu Kushwa and Jethan Amaji wanted more seats,

03:36but mind it, in 2024 Lok Sabha election, Chirag, Paswan, delivered five out of five.

03:41So therefore, at least there is a rationality to the more number of seats

03:45if you take six assembly per Lok Sabha election.

03:48So that way, it's rational.

03:50Where the crucial difference is about which seat, which party is going to contest?

03:55Because mind it, Chirag, Paswan, is trying to reward the loyalists

04:00who stayed with him when the LJP was divided,

04:03and Major Chung shifted to his uncle, Pashupati Paras.

04:07And that time, JDU also is allegedly played, was accused of playing a role.

04:12So that way, rewarding the loyalists, be it about the party president or media in charge, etc.

04:17And that way, there is a strong contention.

04:19And JDU leadership also has a history of some sort of bitterness,

04:24vis-à-vis LJP, and therefore you find this sort of logjam.

04:27But my hunch is that BJP central leadership has the leverage to reconcile it,

04:35and therefore something that was supposed to be announced today,

04:37perhaps can be done by tomorrow or maybe day after.

04:41Compared, if you see that to the rival Mahagatwandan alliance,

04:45wherein Congress' hyper-assertiveness, despite not having a ground presence,

04:51is creating some sort of incommensurable position.

04:55Because be it about phase, be it about number of seats, be it about which seats,

05:00you see in NDA camp, compared to 2020, things are still almost resolved,

05:05except some minor hiccups and hitches.

05:08So I think BJP central leadership has the leverage about deciding which it goes.

05:13So maybe you will see some sort of bargaining and some rewards,

05:17besides the number of constituencies.

05:19You know, as far as the NDA goes, the sense one gets is that how many is taken care of,

05:25but who gets what, that's where there's a couple of sticking points that they're yet to iron out.

05:30But talking about the Mahagatwandan, since Mr. Sajjan Kumar also spoke of that,

05:34Abhitap Tiwari, do you think, and it looks like one of the issues that's coming up right now,

05:39is that the Congress is not willing to openly say that we endorse Tejasvi Adhiv

05:43as the CM face of this alliance.

05:46Do you think there'll be a change of heart in that?

05:48What do you make of really what's played out in the courts today

05:51and how much that will impact what the Congress does?

05:55No, essentially, of course, the Congress, which had the lowest strike rate in 2020,

06:01is not willing to budge to contest a lesser number of seats.

06:05I think 50 to 55 would have been an ideal number.

06:08They're talking of 60.

06:10Yeah, also considering the fact that if RJD contests on less number than 150 seats,

06:17it weakens the prospects of the alliance.

06:19What happens is that when smaller parties contest, like the VIP or Congress, etc.,

06:27the vote transfer of the core vote block of RJD to these candidates or these parties does not happen in a similar way.

06:35So now you also have a VIP, which is not trustworthy and is complicating matters.

06:40Because of the addition of VIP and then LJP faction, then IPP, JMM, etc.,

06:48these have reduced the pool which the Mahagadbandan has.

06:51Correct.

06:52And that primarily hit is going to come from either the Congress and or the RJD.

06:57So if you look at the performance of the Congress, it has not won more than 35 seats in the last three elections.

07:04At least once.

07:05There are just 35 seats which the Congress party has won in the last three elections.

07:10On the leadership issue, I think the Congress is bargaining for seats as well as a deputy chief minister post

07:17or any other candidate because without naming him as a deputy CM,

07:22they will not be able to extract mileage from the Dalit community or the Ravidas community,

07:28which also accounts for almost 5% of the seats.

07:32And this corruption allegation also perhaps Congress foresees that corruption allegations could weaken Mahagadbandan's prospects,

07:40especially among the young, educated and middle class voters.

07:43Because you will need voters from NDA to switch to Mahagadbandan.

07:48And these swing voters may not necessarily like the dynasty politics of Mulu family

07:55as well as the corruption allegations which have been levelled against them.

07:59Now, interesting, interesting times ahead.

08:01Amitabh Tiwari and Sajjan Kumar, thank you for joining us with your perspective,

08:05your view on what's really happening.

08:08Hopefully, in the next 24 hours, we'll see some seat-sharing deal being finalized

08:12by the NDA or the Mahagadbandan for that matter.

08:14You never really know because both sides right now are still continuing their negotiations,

08:19their talks, ironing out all differences.

08:22We're going to continue getting you all the updates coming in from Bihar.

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