Former Ambassador Burns on US-China Relations

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00:00You're out of the seat as ambassador, so we can get right down to it without the diplomacy, right?

00:05So let's talk about the truce. How fragile is this truce and how sustainable is it?

00:11I do think that's the right word for it. There's been a very fractious year in U.S.-China trade,

00:17lots of disagreement. The meeting in South Korea was positive in one sense. The fact that Xi Jinping,

00:24Donald Trump have reconnected and they have an ability to work with each other and they'll see

00:28each other twice in 2026 when President Trump visits in April, when President Xi comes to the

00:33U.S. at the end of the year. But there's a truce in the trade war. The trade war, I think, is going

00:39to continue into 2026. It's going to be renewable every year, the parameters of their agreement,

00:44but nothing was signed. No, it's not a traditional trade deal, a thousand pagers worked out by lawyers,

00:50enforcement mechanisms. It's really an agreement on a series of issues. China will help the United

00:55States on fentanyl. China will resume purchases of American agriculture. China's the largest market

01:01for American agricultural products. I think there's also an agreement, if you read between

01:07the lines, Steve, that neither government is trying to decouple this $642 billion two-way trade relationship,

01:15but they have a number of differences on the specific trade issues that I think will

01:20continue to bedevil the relationship into the next year. So that will keep, maybe not decoupling,

01:26but that will keep the momentum on the de-risking of both sides to be less reliant on each other

01:30going forward because these things are still going to crop up. Well, it's a complicated issue. I agree

01:35with you in part that neither government wants to be dependent on the other for critical materials

01:41or minerals. And so, for instance, you've seen President Trump, I think quite rightly,

01:45it's good that he's done this, is trying now to diversify our supply of rare-earth minerals

01:50with Australia, with Argentina and Chile, Malaysia, and inside the United States as well.

01:57You see the Chinese government trying to make sure it's not totally dependent on...

02:02Look what they did in Brazil and Argentina with soybeans.

02:05Well, exactly right.

02:06Put the American farmers begging for mercy.

02:09Well, but also the Chinese are dependent on advanced American semiconductors,

02:13on advanced parts for aircraft, computer parts.

02:18And so I think, actually, if I had to score this, it's kind of a draw.

02:23Really?

02:23I think so. I mean, a lot of people have paid attention to the fact that China came out

02:28in a very determined way to match the U.S. blow for blow. But I think both sides have done that.

02:32Well, did the U.S. underestimate the levers that China had?

02:37Certainly some in the administration did at the very beginning in Liberation Day,

02:40thinking that the Chinese might not be able to respond to what the U.S. had done.

02:47But I do think that President Trump has been tough-minded on China, and I think that's correct.

02:53I've supported many of his measures vis-a-vis China because, you know,

02:58China's been a problem in global trade.

02:59Intellectual property theft, forced technology transfer,

03:03the clear overproduction of Chinese manufactured goods that are then exported into the world.

03:09So I think the president's been right to be tough-minded.

03:12And I say this, Steve, because in the Biden administration,

03:15one of my jobs as ambassador to China was to implement all the Trump tariffs.

03:19We did.

03:20Yep.

03:21And now you see...

03:21Yeah, you didn't dial back.

03:22No.

03:23And now you see President Trump and his administration have implemented the Biden tariffs.

03:27Were you surprised, though?

03:28When I was there at APEC in Gongju, when the day before he met Xi, he essentially said Blackwell chips,

03:34the most advanced AI accelerators from NVIDIA, which had been under export control, said they're on the table.

03:41Of course, it never materialized.

03:43But were you surprised that the United States would be willing to give up that lever and that national security chip?

03:49I think it was kind of surprising to hear that that might be on the table.

03:52But I was very gratified, very relieved that the United States, President Trump, did not agree.

03:58Why?

03:59Why am I...

03:59Because NVIDIA, of course, says they're losing billions every year.

04:04Because of the national security interests of the United States.

04:07If we allowed the sale of the most advanced American semiconductors for AI purposes,

04:12you know that that technology would go to the People's Liberation Army

04:15and allow it to compete directly with the United States military in the Indo-Pacific.

04:21That's not in the security interests of the United States.

04:23And President Biden put those export controls three years ago on the Chinese economy

04:30because we understood how the civil-military fusion works in China,

04:34that any Chinese company importing this material would have to turn it over to the PLA.

04:39So I think President Trump made the right decision not to permit NVIDIA

04:43and other companies to export these advanced chips.

04:47So you think they should hold fast to that?

04:49I do.

04:50Because certainly, I mean, I understand companies want to do business.

04:54But here's the reality.

04:55If the United States allowed NVIDIA or Intel or any other chip company

04:59to sell their most advanced products in the Chinese market, it would be very short-lived.

05:03The Chinese are trying to innovate around our export controls.

05:07And as soon as a Chinese company, Huawei or anyone else, was producing these chips,

05:13you could be sure the Chinese would move the American company out.

05:17So think of a short-term advantage for an American company

05:19weighed against the national security interests of our country vis-a-vis the military.

05:25Yeah, they've done that in other industries.

05:27It's part of the Chinese playbook.

05:28So we have a lot to cover in only a couple more minutes.

05:31I do want to talk about Taiwan.

05:32Seems to be a bit of a flashpoint now between and some quite vitriolic comments from Beijing

05:37following some comments from Taki Ichi-san, the new prime minister in Japan, about Taiwan.

05:43And someone saying it's maybe a return to wolf warrior diplomacy out of Beijing.

05:47Some really sharp words criticizing Taki Ichi-san about Taiwan.

05:52It shows that it's such a red hot-button issue for Beijing.

05:55But it seems to, that wolf warrior mentality seemed to die down a little bit when you were the ambassador.

06:02You might disagree with that.

06:04But how alarming is this?

06:05I thought the comments of the Chinese consul general in Japan were absolutely reprehensible.

06:13Diplomats cannot and should not talk in that way.

06:16I don't want to repeat some of the words, but they were quite demeaning and threatening.

06:21Unacceptable comments.

06:23And I must say, I think it's very good that Prime Minister Taki Ichi and President Trump met.

06:29They had a very successful visit.

06:31She's very focused on strengthening Japanese national security.

06:34And one can understand that given the geographic proximity of the Japanese home islands to Taiwan,

06:41of course the Japanese are going to be concerned about any kind of threat to Taiwan.

06:46So would the United States be concerned.

06:48Any American administration would.

06:50So I think what's positive, Steve, is that Japan and the Philippines and the United States

06:55are working very closely together to help the Taiwanese to deter any kind of invasion

07:02and to promote their own military buildup so that they can have an effective deterrence.

07:08Before I get the wrap, I need to tap your Russian expertise.

07:12We just had an exclusive interview with Zelensky.

07:14He talked and implored the Europeans, the allies within the European Union,

07:19to really tap into those frozen funds, Russian funds,

07:22to help Ukraine survive the recent onslaught by the Russian military.

07:26What are your thoughts on how that war is going into its fourth year now and what is needed?

07:32What's remarkable is that Ukraine has held its ground for three and a half years now.

07:38If the European Union could come forward with this long-term funding for Ukraine,

07:43it would be absolutely, I think, consequential to help the Ukrainians.

07:47Also important that the United States of America support Ukraine militarily.

07:51I think President Trump's sanctions on Luke Oyl and Rosneft are a very important step.

07:57If he can continue that, keep those sanctions in place,

08:00work with Europe to make sure that advanced American and European military technologies

08:06available to President Zelensky, this is vital.

08:09We cannot allow Putin to succeed.

08:11And perhaps Donald Trump, with his new rapprochement with Xi Jinping,

08:14can get the Chinese also to dial back their support.

08:17China should stop its military assistance to Russia for its war in Ukraine.

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